Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Wishing all our followers and supporters a happy 2024. We will be back with daily shows on finance and property, and we briefly touch on some of the items on our new year agenda.
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In this show, we examine the main reasons why it is likely property prices will fall next year – this is a counterpoint to my earlier show which went through the Five reasons why they will rise – as trotted out by the property spruikers.
In summary, the risks from higher unemployment or a recession, the exit of property investors, higher delinquency and defaults, higher mortgage rates for longer, and dire housing affordability are all reasons why prices could fall in 2024.
And let’s be clear, the great Australian dream of owning a home is now totally out of reach, and many who were pulled into the market in recent years are in strife, to the point where rental costs have gone though the roof, and tent cities are becoming a thing. The very soul of Australia is decaying, unfortunately, that is unless you are fortunate enough to have family wealth or an existing property portfolio, which could now potentially fall in value.
Of course, the actual trajectory of home prices will vary across states, locations and types of property, and averages mask important differences. Which is why in our modelling we go granular – to a post code level, and also consider various scenarios based of the relative weightings of the positive drivers to prices we discussed yesterday, and the downward drivers we looked at today. So the answer is: it depends.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
In this show, I will explore 5 reasons why home prices in Australia could rise in 2024.
If you take, low supply, high demand, easing lending, Government support and RBA/APRA stability concerns, the potential for home prices, especially houses to rise in 2024 seems pretty strong.
But in my next show, I will look at the arguments on the other side of the coin, because as you may have guessed, there are also a series of coherent arguments as to why prices might go sideways or fall!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Despite the recent recessionary news from New Zealand, low consumer confidence and high interest rates with floating rates around 8.63%, the latest ASB Housing Confidence survey shows that “for the first time in eighteen months, more New Zealanders expect house prices to increase than decrease”. Aucklanders continue to be the most bullish in their house price expectations with a net 39% anticipating prices will rise.
They say more bullish housing market sentiment is very much a New Zealand-wide story. All of the regions we survey are anticipating prices will rise by a net margin of 30-40%. While the housing demand/supply balance varies from region to region, other factors are likely to be driving prices higher – the likelihood mortgage rates are close to peaking and the prospect of a more stimulatory government policy regime – are national in scope.
They conclude, “With recent data generally showing prices no longer falling, Kiwis tend to think the housing market has reached a turning point” Despite this, There’s been little change in the net balance of Kiwis who think now is a good time to buy a house, with that figure unchanged at 6%. Still, that’s a far cry from the mood of the market over much of last year, where by a 20-30% margin, respondents felt it was a bad time to buy.
But the key to this expectation is the high migration flows.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The prospect of another interest rate rise on Melbourne Cup day has shaken buyers’ confidence, sending auction clearance rates to their lowest level in seven months, data from CoreLogic shows.
Preliminary results show 68.5 per cent of the reported auctions across the combined capital cities were successful, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than the previous week and weaker than the average for this time of the year.
It comes as the number of homes taken to auction soared to 3383, which is the largest volume since the week before Easter last year.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research director, said such a large number of auctions was always going to test the depth of buyer demand. “Basically, it has not passed the test as shown by the lower clearance rates, which lines up with renewed speculation that interest rates are about to go higher once again,” he said.
And as reported in the AFR, a build-up in home listings and worsening affordability slashed the rate of house price growth by a third to 1.9 per cent across the combined capital cities during the September quarter, a new report from Domain shows.
Nicola Powell, Domain’s chief of research and economics, said the pace of price increases would moderate further amid rising supply, but the prospect of another interest rate increase was unlikely to halt the broader upswing and reverse the earlier gains. We will see!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edit of a live discussion with mortgage broker Chris Bates. Chris started as a Financial Adviser back in 2007 and sold his Financial Advice business in 2020. Over the past 9 years, Chris has grown into one of Australia’s top Mortgage Brokers and is passionate about taking the product providing industry to a trusted advice based profession.
In 2022, Blusk won the Connective Broker of the year award. Connective is arguably Australia’s leading and largest Mortgage Aggregator. Chris has been finalist for the past three years. Chris was #1 with most loans settled in NSW and #2 nationally out of over 3,500 brokers.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another tour of the recent news, as some prices are moving higher, driven by high demand and poor supply. But according to our property insider, Edwin Almeida, not all areas are behaving the same, and there are clear reasons for this. We also look at how pets are impacting the supply of rental property, and what to remember when at an auction.
https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Listing rise in a number of locations, suggesting potential home price weakness especially in Sydney and Melbourne. So the question is where is the lift coming from, what is driving it, and what are the potential consequences?
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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Higher mortgage rates are starting to catch up on a number of fixed rated holders. Indeed over the next few months, higher home prices and the rate cliff will collide! What may happen? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of my latest live stream, featuring Leath van Onselen, joint founder of Macrobusiness and Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth.
We explored the consequences of the massive waves of migration now forecast in the budget pages (hidden in an appendix) and the potential impact of home prices and quality of life.
The original show is available here: https://youtube.com/live/_DxR9F4l20g
This version tidied up the audio, as we had renovators noises off during the live show.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
