We look at the question of distressed listings and sales, which appear to be quite low at the moment. Some therefore argue that things in the property market are just fine.
However, apart from the question of how distressed sales are defined and identified, the truth is that some households are being given the option to sell as a normal not distressed sale. This is better for the bank, and potentially might be something which given enough equity in the property is worth considering. But it is really important to get the right independent advice first!
Bottom line is low distressed sale counts are not a signal of a buoyant market.
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The once famous household savings buffers are being exhausted fast according to latest research. Given the higher mortgage rates and inflation, more households will struggle with cash flow, even as mortgage volumes fall – refinancing apart.
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The once famous household savings buffers are being exhausted fast according to latest research. Given the higher montage rates and inflation, more households will struggle with cash flow, even as mortgage volumes fall – refinancing apart.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Steve and I discuss the latest in interest rate movements, refinancing, and the impact on household budgets. We look at how households can save significantly and ensure they have the best deals on mortgages and savings rates.
We know that many are still not on the best available rates and as a result are paying more than they need to, which may benefit bank profits, but which do not help individual household cashflow.
Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we walk through the key charts as we come to the end of 2022. So, what might 2023 look like?
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With the latest rises in rates of 3% flowing through to the markets, we look at the impact, now and ahead with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar.
CONTENTS 0:00 Start 0:53 Housing Shortages and Stress 11:40 Interest Rates Moves 20:00 Fixed Rate Cliff Ahead 25:30 Credit Card Issuing Up 34:00 Refinancing Risks 40:30 Deposits 49:00 Financial Homework For The Holidays
Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
Given we now have mortgage rates 3% higher than at the start of the year – analysts are asking whether there are yet signs of mortgage portfolio risks in the banking system.
We certainly know that households cash flows are under pressure, from our own mortgage stress analysis, and Roy Morgan’s research on consumer confidence and their own mortgage stress analysis.
And we know that APRA’s 3% “Buffer” is being breached now, and it is even worse when they had set a 2% buffer earlier on.
But all that said, there is a lag between rate rises and delinquency – of months, if not years, so I would not be expecting much movement yet – that comes later. This also aligns with recent incoming data too.
For example, according to the latest Quarterly Statistics from APRA, the banks wrote fewer high loan-to-value ratio mortgages and decreased high debt-to-income lending over the September quarter, which the prudential regulator has welcomed.
They welcomed the fact that the banks have been “improving” the risk characteristics of their new residential mortgage lending, after finding that both high debt-to-income (DTI) and high LVR lending had reduced over the September quarter and suggested that the figures were largely promising given the strength of the banks’ profitability and liquidity positions as well as the reduction in “riskier” lending.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Are There Signs Of Bank Mortgage Portfolio Stress Yet?
With the latest rises in rates of 3% flowing through to the markets, we look at the impact, now and ahead with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar.
CONTENTS 0:00 Start 0:53 Housing Shortages and Stress 11:40 Interest Rates Moves 20:00 Fixed Rate Cliff Ahead 25:30 Credit Card Issuing Up 34:00 Refinancing Risks 40:30 Deposits 49:00 Financial Homework For The Holidays
Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, budgeting, money management and more.
Another outing thanks to Cookie’s research on property price falls on the portals, plus my own analysis based on DFA stress, this time looking at the falls across the Illawarra.
Whilst not statistically significant necessarily, it does reinforce the down trends. Thanks again to Cookie.
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