Tag: Household Finances

Is The Australian “Fair Go” Broken?

When I landed in Australia in 1995, I was immediately struck by the concept of a “fair-go” being right at the heart of the Australian psyche. But more recently it appeared to me that this was becoming something of a myth, as inequality and poverty started to expand and impinge on people who previously were able to get on, buy and house, and enjoy the Australian dream.

The Productivity Commission just released a research paper titled “Fairly equal? Economic mobility in Australia” and make the point that Inequality is a serious concern when people at the bottom of the income distribution cannot meet their basic needs or where they experience the stress of economic insecurity. And inequality is a serious concern when it limits people’s future opportunities. The countries with the highest inequality are also the countries with the lowest intergenerational mobility, with children from poor families more likely to be poor themselves.

https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/fairly-equal-mobility/fairly-equal-mobility.pdf

The truth is the fair-go ideal is dissipating, and people are becoming less mobile economically speaking. Those with wealth in the family will enjoy the benefits, but a larger proportion of people are stuck in a poverty rut, and have few ways to escape. Bye-Bye Fair Go Australia.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Burnout: Households Shut Their Wallets As Living Costs Rise!

Trying to get a handle on what is going on in the economy is not easy, as I discussed recently in my show about retail turnover, which when adjusted for inflation is falling, and falling hard.

So no great surprise to see that the latest data from the ABS on Household spending growth showed it has slowed, up 0.1% over the year. The 0.1 per cent rise in May follows a 2.2 per cent increase in the 12 months to April.

Through the year household spending increased for four spending categories. The largest increases were in: health (+8.8%), miscellaneous goods and services (+7.3%) and furnishing and household equipment (+3.3%).

Through the year, household spending on: services rose 2.3%, driven by increased spending on health and other services. goods fell 2.5%, driven by decreased spending on clothing and footwear and goods for recreation and culture.

Once again, there was higher growth in spending on non-discretionary goods and services, – things people have to buy such as on health services and food, compared to discretionary items – things which are not necessary, rather more aspirational spending. Typically when people are under financial pressure, it shows first in a fall in non-discretionary items.

But this is not inflation adjusted, at 4% currently and if you adjust for inflation, in fact both are falling. Plus we have a population increase of circa 600,000 which should help the numbers. So this weak data might be seen as one indicator which suggests a further RBA rate hike is not needed, as the tightening is now showing, though of course the various tax cuts and other Government support flowing from 1 July 2024 worth at least $20 billion could well boost household spending.

At very least it does appear the Government and RBA are pulling in different directions – in what Tarric Brooker has coined as “burnout economics”- I love the smell of burnout in the morning!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Burnout: Households Shut Their Wallets As Living Costs Rise!
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Burnout: Households Shut Their Wallets As Living Costs Rise!

Trying to get a handle on what is going on in the economy is not easy, as I discussed recently in my show about retail turnover, which when adjusted for inflation is falling, and falling hard.

So no great surprise to see that the latest data from the ABS on Household spending growth showed it has slowed, up 0.1% over the year. The 0.1 per cent rise in May follows a 2.2 per cent increase in the 12 months to April.

Through the year household spending increased for four spending categories. The largest increases were in: health (+8.8%), miscellaneous goods and services (+7.3%) and furnishing and household equipment (+3.3%).

Through the year, household spending on: services rose 2.3%, driven by increased spending on health and other services. goods fell 2.5%, driven by decreased spending on clothing and footwear and goods for recreation and culture.

Once again, there was higher growth in spending on non-discretionary goods and services, – things people have to buy such as on health services and food, compared to discretionary items – things which are not necessary, rather more aspirational spending. Typically when people are under financial pressure, it shows first in a fall in non-discretionary items.

But this is not inflation adjusted, at 4% currently and if you adjust for inflation, in fact both are falling. Plus we have a population increase of circa 600,000 which should help the numbers. So this weak data might be seen as one indicator which suggests a further RBA rate hike is not needed, as the tightening is now showing, though of course the various tax cuts and other Government support flowing from 1 July 2024 worth at least $20 billion could well boost household spending.

At very least it does appear the Government and RBA are pulling in different directions – in what Tarric Brooker has coined as “burnout economics”- I love the smell of burnout in the morning!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

More Household Trouble In The Land Of OZ!

We update our modelling to the end of June 2024, examining the latest in mortgage, rental, investment and financial stress across Australia.

While the upcoming tax cuts and energy support may assist, the truth is about half of households are under sever pressure, and with rates expected to be higher for longer, its time for people to consider tactics to improv their cash flow.

You can subscribe to the DFA data set via Patreon, https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

You can find out more about our One to One service here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

If you want me to include a specific post code in one of my future shows, put the details in the comments and I will try to include it.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
More Household Trouble In The Land Of OZ!
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CPI: Making Sense Of The Senseless??

The ABS released the latest monthly CPI data today, and it reports that Inflation is still sticky in Australia, and accelerated faster than expected for a third straight month in May, sending the currency higher as traders boosted bets that the Reserve Bank will resume raising interest rates at its next meeting. The report comes after RBA Governor Michele Bullock restated last week that the rate-setting board isn’t ruling out a rate hike after leaving the benchmark at a 12-year high of 4.35%.

Wednesday’s figures suggest inflation is running ahead of the RBA’s forecast for underlying inflation to ease to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. That said, the monthly numbers are at best partial, compared with the more complete quarterly data which provides a fuller picture of inflation.

In truth, for many households real inflation is much higher than the statistics suggest, with continued massive lifts in insurance costs for example, but Warren Hogan may end up being right, with further rate hikes a clear threat if the Q2 quarterly inflation print confirms the uptrend.

This is a mess, created by taking rates too low in the first place, saying they would stay low into 2024, then not returning them to normal rates soon enough, meantime luring many into property are extended prices and big loans. The route out of the years of policy failure will be difficult for many, though somehow policy makers and politicians seem to be able to find someone else to blame. How about some real accountability?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
CPI: Making Sense Of The Senseless??
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CPI: Making Sense Of The Senseless??

The ABS released the latest monthly CPI data today, and it reports that Inflation is still sticky in Australia, and accelerated faster than expected for a third straight month in May, sending the currency higher as traders boosted bets that the Reserve Bank will resume raising interest rates at its next meeting. The report comes after RBA Governor Michele Bullock restated last week that the rate-setting board isn’t ruling out a rate hike after leaving the benchmark at a 12-year high of 4.35%.

Wednesday’s figures suggest inflation is running ahead of the RBA’s forecast for underlying inflation to ease to 3.8 per cent in the June quarter. That said, the monthly numbers are at best partial, compared with the more complete quarterly data which provides a fuller picture of inflation.

In truth, for many households real inflation is much higher than the statistics suggest, with continued massive lifts in insurance costs for example, but Warren Hogan may end up being right, with further rate hikes a clear threat if the Q2 quarterly inflation print confirms the uptrend.

This is a mess, created by taking rates too low in the first place, saying they would stay low into 2024, then not returning them to normal rates soon enough, meantime luring many into property are extended prices and big loans. The route out of the years of policy failure will be difficult for many, though somehow policy makers and politicians seem to be able to find someone else to blame. How about some real accountability?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Is A 5% Cash Rate For Australia On The Cards?

As I discussed on my live show, on Tuesday night with Leith van Onselen, the RBA decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, but there were signs of a more hawkish tone from the meeting notes, and the subsequent press conference (which I might add is becoming less useful each time thanks to weak questions supporting weak answers, come on MSM do your job….).

Bullock was clear, we need more data, there are risks to the upside from sticky inflation, but employment is also an important factor, given their dual mandate.

Just remember folks, the RBA at 4.35% is significantly below several other Central Banks, including the Bank of England, which held rates on Thursday at 5.25%, despite inflation falling to 2% last month, Bank of Canada which cut rates by 0.25% to 4.75% and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank holding rates at 5.5%, despite driving the economy there into recession.

Which begs the question, has the RBA done enough on rates to squeeze inflation out of the economy in Australia, despite being lower the peers, mainly because in Australia a greater proportion of mortgages are linked to variable rates than other countries. Economists are divided, with Leith still holding the next cut will be down, as unemployment rises.

But writing on Monday, before the RBA decided to hold rates on Tuesday, Economist Warren Hogan, at the more bullish end of commentators on RBA rates, wrote in the AFR that the flow of data since the last meeting in early May made it a very close call to hold off on further tightening.

The narrow path is still attainable, but it increasingly looks like we will need to get rates up closer to 5 per cent to stay on it.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Is A 5% Cash Rate For Australia On The Cards?
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One In Eight Mortgage Borrowers “Extend And Pretend”!

Struggling homeowners are increasingly hitting the pricey reset button on their loans in the hope of dragging down their monthly repayments.
It’s adding years to the length of their loans and potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest costs.

A recent Finder.com.au survey revealed one in eight mortgage holders polled revealed they had extended their home loan to lower their repayments over the last year.

In a trend described as “borrowers stuck in mortgage quicksand”, about half of those who had extended their loans had added more than five years to the life of the debt.

This would result in much higher interest costs over the lifetime of the loan, despite cheaper monthly repayment bills in the short-term, Finder revealed.

“Even a small increase in the length of a loan term can add up to big differences in interest over the life of a home loan.”

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
One In Eight Mortgage Borrowers “Extend And Pretend”!
Loading
/

One In Eight Mortgage Borrowers “Extend And Pretend”!

Struggling homeowners are increasingly hitting the pricey reset button on their loans in the hope of dragging down their monthly repayments.
It’s adding years to the length of their loans and potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest costs.

A recent Finder.com.au survey revealed one in eight mortgage holders polled revealed they had extended their home loan to lower their repayments over the last year.

In a trend described as “borrowers stuck in mortgage quicksand”, about half of those who had extended their loans had added more than five years to the life of the debt.

This would result in much higher interest costs over the lifetime of the loan, despite cheaper monthly repayment bills in the short-term, Finder revealed.

“Even a small increase in the length of a loan term can add up to big differences in interest over the life of a home loan.”

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Is A 5% Cash Rate For Australia On The Cards?

As I discussed on my live show, on Tuesday night with Leith van Onselen, the RBA decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, but there were signs of a more hawkish tone from the meeting notes, and the subsequent press conference (which I might add is becoming less useful each time thanks to weak questions supporting weak answers, come on MSM do your job….)
Bullock was clear, we need more data, there are risks to the upside from sticky inflation, but employment is also an important factor, given their dual mandate.

Just remember folks, the RBA at 4.35% is significantly below several other Central Banks, including the Bank of England, which held rates on Thursday at 5.25%, despite inflation falling to 2% last month, Bank of Canada which cut rates by 0.25% to 4.75% and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank holding rates at 5.5%, despite driving the economy there into recession.

Which begs the question, has the RBA done enough on rates to squeeze inflation out of the economy in Australia, despite being lower the peers, mainly because in Australia a greater proportion of mortgages are linked to variable rates than other countries. Economists are divided, with Leith still holding the next cut will be down, as unemployment rises.

But writing on Monday, before the RBA decided to hold rates on Tuesday, Economist Warren Hogan, at the more bullish end of commentators on RBA rates, wrote in the AFR that the flow of data since the last meeting in early May made it a very close call to hold off on further tightening.

The narrow path is still attainable, but it increasingly looks like we will need to get rates up closer to 5 per cent to stay on it.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/