Is It Hard Hat Time As The Santa Rally Turns Decidedly Frosty?

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way.

Recently, we saw markets charging higher, as many markets touched all-time highs again on the expectation of more rate cuts, but that changed this week, following another pivot from the FED and more strong economic readings gave pause for thought. While the U.S. central bank on Wednesday cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.25%-4.50% range, it projected only two rate reductions in 2025, citing the economy’s continued resilience and still-elevated inflation.

We also briefly had the risk of a US Government shut down to content with, though that was averted. The messy process of averting a U.S. government shutdown offered investors a glimpse into challenges the incoming Trump administration will face in implementing its agenda, adding a market concern for the coming year. At very least Trump is likely to lead with bold threats and leverage them to push negotiations in his favor. Republican hardliners who normally are ardent Trump supporters are resisting his push to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, sticking to their belief that government spending needs to be pruned and defying his warnings of revenge. “Granted, Trump isn’t president yet, but he will interject ideas at the last minute and there’s no guarantee every member of the Republican Party in Congress is going to go along with his ideas,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth “That is a formula for gridlock, uncertainty, and volatility.”

And we also had the triple witching, where options contracts expire which added to the complexity.

All up although Friday saw US markets turning more positive again, across the week, drops were widespread, with the MSCI Global index down 2.53%, though still up 16.13% year to date, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.18%, but still down 2.25% for the week, its longest losing streak since October 1974. The S&P 500 index gained 1.09%, but down 1.99% across the week while the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 1.07% having fallen 1.78% across the 5 days.

Michael Saylor, Chairman of MicroStrategy, dropped his usual post on X Saylor issued a four-word statement: “Wear a Hard Hat.” as Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling to $94,000 from its peak of over $100,000.

Saylor’s advice could well be true for other market participates too, as given the high quantum of uncertainly in the weeks ahead, wearing a hard hat makes sense as market volume declines over the holiday period, and as many stocks are in over valued territory. It could be a very frosty period for investors.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Is It Hard Hat Time As The Santa Rally Turns Decidedly Frosty?
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Is It Hard Hat Time As The Santa Rally Turns Decidedly Frosty?

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way.

Recently, we saw markets charging higher, as many markets touched all-time highs again on the expectation of more rate cuts, but that changed this week, following another pivot from the FED and more strong economic readings gave pause for thought. While the U.S. central bank on Wednesday cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.25%-4.50% range, it projected only two rate reductions in 2025, citing the economy’s continued resilience and still-elevated inflation.

We also briefly had the risk of a US Government shut down to content with, though that was averted. The messy process of averting a U.S. government shutdown offered investors a glimpse into challenges the incoming Trump administration will face in implementing its agenda, adding a market concern for the coming year. At very least Trump is likely to lead with bold threats and leverage them to push negotiations in his favor. Republican hardliners who normally are ardent Trump supporters are resisting his push to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, sticking to their belief that government spending needs to be pruned and defying his warnings of revenge. “Granted, Trump isn’t president yet, but he will interject ideas at the last minute and there’s no guarantee every member of the Republican Party in Congress is going to go along with his ideas,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth “That is a formula for gridlock, uncertainty, and volatility.”

And we also had the triple witching, where options contracts expire which added to the complexity.

All up although Friday saw US markets turning more positive again, across the week, drops were widespread, with the MSCI Global index down 2.53%, though still up 16.13% year to date, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.18%, but still down 2.25% for the week, its longest losing streak since October 1974. The S&P 500 index gained 1.09%, but down 1.99% across the week while the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 1.07% having fallen 1.78% across the 5 days.

Michael Saylor, Chairman of MicroStrategy, dropped his usual post on X Saylor issued a four-word statement: “Wear a Hard Hat.” as Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling to $94,000 from its peak of over $100,000.

Saylor’s advice could well be true for other market participates too, as given the high quantum of uncertainly in the weeks ahead, wearing a hard hat makes sense as market volume declines over the holiday period, and as many stocks are in over valued territory. It could be a very frosty period for investors.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Markets: Are You Confused Yet? You Should Be!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. MSCI’s global equity gauge fell on Friday while bond yields climbed as investors waited for clues about the future path for interest rates and Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed down 0.53% earlier, breaking a three-week winning streak, as investors sought clarity on Europe’s rate policy amid concerns about economic growth and a potential trade war.

As we run down to the end of the year, a flurry of Central Bank rate announcements signalled a confusing picture, with the RBA holding, the ECB cutting as expected, alongside Denmark at 25 basis points, and Swiss Bank cutting unexpectedly as it sought to head off gains in its currency along with Canada both doing a bigger 50 basis point cut. Next week, we have more Central Bank action, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Japan all joining the party. While investors are betting on a quarter point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, expectations are rising that the pace of rate cuts is poised to slow, with an 80% probability of a hold in January, while cuts in the UK and Japan are not expected. So, you can see monetary policy is all over the shop.

The shadow of president-elect Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs on imports from around the globe, especially China, as well as his promise for massive corporate tax cuts haunts the markets. These policies are seen as fueling inflation, which has been proving sticky even before Trump’s plans are enacted.

Finally, Bitcoin was once again touching $100,000 US, as Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor tweeted: “We are all competing for $45m in #Bitcoin mined daily.”

Curiously, earlier this week, another big Bitcoin supporter and maximalist, the chief executive at JAN3, Samson Mow, shared that he expects miners to stop selling the BTC they mint in the near future. He urged the market to be prepared for that and plan their Bitcoin accumulation accordingly. Earlier this week, Saylor commented on a Bitcoin warning tweet published by Binance founder CZ. Changpeng Zhao issued a major reminder that more than 19 million Bitcoin from 21 million have been mined already. Saylor tweeted that the crypto space is running out of Bitcoin. It was last at 101,300, and will likely wobble around this level for some time.

Given significant uncertainty ahead, markets are generally overvalued, and prone to volatility and potential falls, so cash returning 4 or 5 percent relatively risk free might look a good option for now!!!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets: Are You Confused Yet? You Should Be!
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Markets: Are You Confused Yet? You Should Be!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. MSCI’s global equity gauge fell on Friday while bond yields climbed as investors waited for clues about the future path for interest rates and Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed down 0.53% earlier, breaking a three-week winning streak, as investors sought clarity on Europe’s rate policy amid concerns about economic growth and a potential trade war.

As we run down to the end of the year, a flurry of Central Bank rate announcements signalled a confusing picture, with the RBA holding, the ECB cutting as expected, alongside Denmark at 25 basis points, and Swiss Bank cutting unexpectedly as it sought to head off gains in its currency along with Canada both doing a bigger 50 basis point cut. Next week, we have more Central Bank action, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Japan all joining the party. While investors are betting on a quarter point rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, expectations are rising that the pace of rate cuts is poised to slow, with an 80% probability of a hold in January, while cuts in the UK and Japan are not expected. So, you can see monetary policy is all over the shop.

The shadow of president-elect Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs on imports from around the globe, especially China, as well as his promise for massive corporate tax cuts haunts the markets. These policies are seen as fueling inflation, which has been proving sticky even before Trump’s plans are enacted.

Finally, Bitcoin was once again touching $100,000 US, as Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor tweeted: “We are all competing for $45m in #Bitcoin mined daily.”

Curiously, earlier this week, another big Bitcoin supporter and maximalist, the chief executive at JAN3, Samson Mow, shared that he expects miners to stop selling the BTC they mint in the near future. He urged the market to be prepared for that and plan their Bitcoin accumulation accordingly. Earlier this week, Saylor commented on a Bitcoin warning tweet published by Binance founder CZ. Changpeng Zhao issued a major reminder that more than 19 million Bitcoin from 21 million have been mined already. Saylor tweeted that the crypto space is running out of Bitcoin. It was last at 101,300, and will likely wobble around this level for some time.

Given significant uncertainty ahead, markets are generally overvalued, and prone to volatility and potential falls, so cash returning 4 or 5 percent relatively risk free might look a good option for now!!!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Santa Rally In Full Swing; For Now!

Markets are expecting the FED to cut rates again at its December meeting, after the US economy added 227,000 jobs last month, mostly in line with expectations, and the three-month average came in at 173,000, confirming expectations that the labour market is cooling, at a moderate pace.

The Australian sharemarket dropped on Friday in a broad sell-off as investors turned cautious ahead of a key job report in the US that may shed light on whether the Federal Reserve will continue easing interest rates this month.

The big banks had a weak session with Westpac down 1.4 per cent to $32.76, while Commonwealth Bank fell 0.6 per cent to $157.06. That’s despite traders ramping up bets of an earlier rate cut by the Reserve Bank. Money markets imply an around 50-50 chance of an easing in February 2025, up from 25 per cent on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 4.35 per cent when it meets next week.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Santa Rally In Full Swing; For Now!
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Vertigo: Markets Still Grinding Higher (Just Don’t Look Down!)

Speculation about Japanese rate hikes drove a rebound for the yen, which ended with the biggest weekly gain vs the USD since July. The dollar fell 1.18% on the day to 149.76 yen, under pressure after Japan’s government finalised a stimulus budget and inflation in Tokyo came in hotter than economists forecast.

ASX property stocks were the worst performing, sliding 0,7 per cent. Goodman Group shares dropped 0.8 per cent to $37.91 and Westfield parent Scentre was down 1.1 per cent to $3.68.

The falls come as economists from three Australian banks – ANZ, AMP and Bank of Queensland – push out their forecast for a first cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia to May, from February previously.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin briefly traded above $US98,600 btu was last at $96,534. Regardless of the current price level, some predict significant growth is possible with growth through the remaining days of 2024 to hit a high of $200,000. This is of course the point, markets can hope, but Bitcoin and the markets more widely continue to be driven on hopium. Just don’t look down.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Vertigo: Markets Still Grinding Higher (Just Don’t Look Down!)
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Vertigo: Markets Still Grinding Higher (Just Don’t Look Down!)

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way.

Global stock markets rallied on Friday, with Wall Street crowning November with its biggest monthly gain in a year on post-election growth hopes, while the dollar eased amid prospects for firmer rates in Japan and easing in Europe. MSCI’s broad gauge of world stocks rose 0.52%, securing the best month since May, up 3.63%. Europe’s STOXX share index rose 0.58% on the day and was up 0.96% across the month, recording its first monthly gain since August. Technology stocks were the biggest boost to the index, gaining 1.6 per cent.

Of course, U.S. trading was thin the day after Thanksgiving. Many investors made it a long weekend and stocks and bonds closed early, so most month-end position adjustments were done before the holiday. The S&P 500 rose 0.56% to mark the best monthly gain since November 2023 of 5.14%, as investors ploughed $US141 billion into US equities, the heaviest inflows for a four-week period on record, according to EPFR Global data. The US is currently an investor magnet. Nvidia and Apple helped pace the S&P 500 to its 53rd record closing high at 6032.38. The DOW was up 0.42% on the day and 7.54% for the month. The Nasdaq’s 0.83% rise Friday secured a 6.2% gain for the month, it’s best since May.

The stars of the month, though, have been the small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index being very close to achieving the second 10%+ monthly return of 2024. This small-cap index, often seen as a “risk-on” gauge, has broken through key resistance levels and reversed its underperformance trend versus the broader market. This rotation suggests increasing participation across sectors and a broadening of market strength, reinforcing the bullish market thesis.

In Europe, auto stocks were among the worst hit in November, knocked down by concerns that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico could be more damaging for European car makers than any direct tariffs on EU goods. Defence stocks on the other hand, gained the most among sectors, largely due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Speculation about Japanese rate hikes drove a rebound for the yen, which ended with the biggest weekly gain vs the USD since July. The dollar fell 1.18% on the day to 149.76 yen, under pressure after Japan’s government finalised a stimulus budget and inflation in Tokyo came in hotter than economists forecast.

ASX property stocks were the worst performing, sliding 0,7 per cent. Goodman Group shares dropped 0.8 per cent to $37.91 and Westfield parent Scentre was down 1.1 per cent to $3.68.

The falls come as economists from three Australian banks – ANZ, AMP and Bank of Queensland – push out their forecast for a first cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia to May, from February previously.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin briefly traded above $US98,600 btu was last at $96,534. Regardless of the current price level, some predict significant growth is possible with growth through the remaining days of 2024 to hit a high of $200,000. This is of course the point, markets can hope, but Bitcoin and the markets more widely continue to be driven on hopium. Just don’t look down.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Markets Reach For The Stars Again, Even As The Ground Shifts Under Foot!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in New Zealand and Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. This is data heavy, so strap in.

Global stocks registered a strong weekly gain on Friday while U.S. Treasury yields slipped as markets eyed President-elect Donald Trump’s likely policies and their impact on the U.S. economy, even as bitcoin traded near the $100,000 threshold as bets that Trump’s administration will take a lighter-touch approach to regulation as chairman Gary Gensler plans to step down on January 20, the day Trump is inaugurated.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.33% to 854.13 and gained about 1.4% for the week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 share index ended the week 1% higher, snapping four straight weeks of losses.

All three Wall Street indexes finished higher and each notched a weekly gain. Industrials, consumer discretionary, financials and consumer staples drove gains while communication services, utilities and technology equities were the biggest losers.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the world’s most valuable company, ended down 3.2% after the artificial intelligence chipmaker reported strong quarterly results but issued lacklustre sales forecasts having hit a prior record high.

European equity markets closed higher on Friday, despite investors digesting weak economic data as well as the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Data released earlier Friday vividly illustrated the economic woes that Europe is currently suffering, pointing to further interest rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Germany’s DAX rose 1% and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 1.4%, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.6%. The pan-European STOXX 600 jumped 1.2%, its best daily performance in nearly two months.

Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, buoyed by strength in chipmaking and cyclical stocks, which helped markets weather heightened tensions over the Russia-Ukraine war.

A rally in oil prices on fears of an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict pushed energy stocks higher, sending the Australian sharemarket to a fresh closing high on Friday. Australia’s ASX 200 benefited from a shift into economically sensitive sectors despite Australian PMI data showing a contraction in both manufacturing and services activity.

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.9 per cent to 8393.8 at the closing bell, resetting Tuesday’s record of 8374. The index climbed 1.3 per cent this week. The All Ords rose 0.8 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Reach For The Stars Again, Even As The Ground Shifts Under Foot!
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Markets Reach For The Stars Again, Even As The Ground Shifts Under Foot!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in New Zealand and Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. This is data heavy, so strap in.

Global stocks registered a strong weekly gain on Friday while U.S. Treasury yields slipped as markets eyed President-elect Donald Trump’s likely policies and their impact on the U.S. economy, even as bitcoin traded near the $100,000 threshold as bets that Trump’s administration will take a lighter-touch approach to regulation as chairman Gary Gensler plans to step down on January 20, the day Trump is inaugurated.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.33% to 854.13 and gained about 1.4% for the week. Europe’s Stoxx 600 share index ended the week 1% higher, snapping four straight weeks of losses.

All three Wall Street indexes finished higher and each notched a weekly gain. Industrials, consumer discretionary, financials and consumer staples drove gains while communication services, utilities and technology equities were the biggest losers.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the world’s most valuable company, ended down 3.2% after the artificial intelligence chipmaker reported strong quarterly results but issued lacklustre sales forecasts having hit a prior record high.

European equity markets closed higher on Friday, despite investors digesting weak economic data as well as the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Data released earlier Friday vividly illustrated the economic woes that Europe is currently suffering, pointing to further interest rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Germany’s DAX rose 1% and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 1.4%, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.6%. The pan-European STOXX 600 jumped 1.2%, its best daily performance in nearly two months.

Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, buoyed by strength in chipmaking and cyclical stocks, which helped markets weather heightened tensions over the Russia-Ukraine war.

A rally in oil prices on fears of an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict pushed energy stocks higher, sending the Australian sharemarket to a fresh closing high on Friday. Australia’s ASX 200 benefited from a shift into economically sensitive sectors despite Australian PMI data showing a contraction in both manufacturing and services activity.

The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.9 per cent to 8393.8 at the closing bell, resetting Tuesday’s record of 8374. The index climbed 1.3 per cent this week. The All Ords rose 0.8 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Forget Seeking Certainty: Suddenly, The Fed’s Urge to Cut Rates Evaporates!

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe, and Asia, and end in Australia covering crypto and commodities on the way.

My earlier call of enhanced market volatility proved correct, as a gauge of global stocks took its biggest weekly drop in two months driven by market euphoria after the Trump win now turning, as the implications in terms of tariffs and staff appointments sink in and as trading profits are made. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe lost 1.11%, to 842.61 for its fourth straight decline, following five straight advances. In Europe, the STOXX 600 index closed down 0.77% on the day and down 0.69% across the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest level in 5-1/2 months on Friday as economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a slower pace of interest rate cuts ahead.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Forget Seeking Certainty: Suddenly, The Fed’s Urge to Cut Rates Evaporates!
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