Tag: Market Update

Markets Jump On Trump’s Latest Change Of Tune!

Here we go again. Just yesterday, markets fell on Trumps comments concerning Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and by threatening to sack the head of the world’s most important central bank.

Then the IMF came out with an economic update which slashed its US and global economic forecasts, warning that tariffs were ushering in a new era of slower growth.

Elsewhere a finance industry trade group the IIF said the US faced a likely recession later this year, and Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon said uncertainty was “too high” holding back corporate decision-making and keeping asset prices under pressure.

But then, in the latest twist on Wednesday, US time, Trump again called on the US Federal Reserve chairman to “be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates”. “But, no, I have no intention to fire him,” he volunteered in a reporters’ call in the White House. Make that 1-0 for Powell.

Markets reacted positively to the news At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.66%, while the S&P 500 index added 2.51%, and the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 2.71%. The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 options, was down 9.64% to 28.37.

We should expect the current crazy times to continue, with volatility ahead, as like it or not, the global financial system is in spasm, as I discussed on my live show yesterday. This will not end soon, and may not end well for many.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Jump On Trump’s Latest Change Of Tune!
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Markets Jump On Trump’s Latest Change Of Tune!

Here we go again. Just yesterday, markets fell on Trumps comments concerning Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and by threatening to sack the head of the world’s most important central bank.

Then the IMF came out with an economic update which slashed its US and global economic forecasts, warning that tariffs were ushering in a new era of slower growth.

Elsewhere a finance industry trade group the IIF said the US faced a likely recession later this year, and Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon said uncertainty was “too high” holding back corporate decision-making and keeping asset prices under pressure.

But then, in the latest twist on Wednesday, US time, Trump again called on the US Federal Reserve chairman to “be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates”. “But, no, I have no intention to fire him,” he volunteered in a reporters’ call in the White House. Make that 1-0 for Powell.

Markets reacted positively to the news At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.66%, while the S&P 500 index added 2.51%, and the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 2.71%. The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 options, was down 9.64% to 28.37.

We should expect the current crazy times to continue, with volatility ahead, as like it or not, the global financial system is in spasm, as I discussed on my live show yesterday. This will not end soon, and may not end well for many.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Economic Update: April 2025

This is my edit of a regular segment with Nuggets News, as we look at the latest market, finance and property news. This month we dwell on the question of the financial system, in the light of Trump’s tariffs and calls for the Fed Chair to cut rates. As a result, investors are leaving the US, pulling the USD lower, and bond yields higher. Is this the signal the global financial system is on the blink?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Economic Update: April 2025
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Uncertainty Into Stagflation Spooks Markets, Lifts Gold (Again)…

Today, Gold hit another all-time high as warnings from Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell about the impact of the trade war fueled volatility on Wall Street, leading to sharp declines in stocks and the dollar.

Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday and said that policymakers would balance their dual responsibilities of fostering maximum employment and stable prices, “keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor-market conditions that benefit all Americans.

Powell repeated that the level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. He added that the duties are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, but that the inflationary effects could also be more persistent.

In effect he parked the FED Put which the markets have been gambling on, positioning price stability as a “prerequisite” to sustainably achieving the Fed’s employment mandate and so pushed back on market pricing of a prompt monetary policy response to signs of a deteriorating growth outlook.

In Australia, the latest data showed employment increased by 32,200 in March, following a drop of 52,800 the previous month. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 per cent. The robust data prompted money markets to dial back expectations of a jumbo half a percentage point rate cut in May.

Elsewhere The Bank of Canada on Wednesday announced its policy rate would remain at 2.75 per cent. Tiff Macklem, the BoC governor, said the bank held off on a rate cut due to a lack of clarity concerning trade with the US.

And In passing, we note the ECB rate decision upcoming today, We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited. But I don’t expect much in terms of guidance by the ECB, which could echo Wednesday’s Bank of Canada communication: openly acknowledge policymakers are as confused as markets on the tariff impact, and they are not able to offer any forward-looking view at this stage.

I think the main message from Powell and other Central Bankers is patience, the tariff impacts will play out over months, not days, and thus markets will remain trigger happy on any piece of news, good or bad. I expect stagflation just around the corner!!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Uncertainty Into Stagflation Spooks Markets, Lifts Gold (Again)…
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Uncertainty Into Stagflation Spooks Markets, Lifts Gold (Again)…

Today, Gold hit another all-time high as warnings from Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell about the impact of the trade war fueled volatility on Wall Street, leading to sharp declines in stocks and the dollar.

Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday and said that policymakers would balance their dual responsibilities of fostering maximum employment and stable prices, “keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor-market conditions that benefit all Americans.

Powell repeated that the level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. He added that the duties are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, but that the inflationary effects could also be more persistent.

In effect he parked the FED Put which the markets have been gambling on, positioning price stability as a “prerequisite” to sustainably achieving the Fed’s employment mandate and so pushed back on market pricing of a prompt monetary policy response to signs of a deteriorating growth outlook.

In Australia, the latest data showed employment increased by 32,200 in March, following a drop of 52,800 the previous month. The unemployment rate held at 4.1 per cent. The robust data prompted money markets to dial back expectations of a jumbo half a percentage point rate cut in May.

Elsewhere The Bank of Canada on Wednesday announced its policy rate would remain at 2.75 per cent. Tiff Macklem, the BoC governor, said the bank held off on a rate cut due to a lack of clarity concerning trade with the US.

And In passing, we note the ECB rate decision upcoming today, We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited. But I don’t expect much in terms of guidance by the ECB, which could echo Wednesday’s Bank of Canada communication: openly acknowledge policymakers are as confused as markets on the tariff impact, and they are not able to offer any forward-looking view at this stage.

I think the main message from Powell and other Central Bankers is patience, the tariff impacts will play out over months, not days, and thus markets will remain trigger happy on any piece of news, good or bad. I expect stagflation just around the corner!!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

In A Hyper Financialised World, Bond Markets Rule…

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia. This past week was an object lesson in the power of the Bond market. And not for the first time. A favourite quote on markets comes from the former CEO of Citicorp, Walter Wriston, who observed that, “Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated. Remember those Words.

I made shows through the week about the fallout from the Trump tariffs and the subsequent 90 day pause of the reciprocal tariffs, the extra hikes directed at China, and China’s escalation back, (Beijing increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% on Friday after Trump’s move to hike duties on Chinese goods) and the turmoil on financial markets, especially a significant sell-down in US Treasuries. This lifted yields (remember bond prices and yields move in opposite directions), with the 10-year up 12.4% across the week to 4.494, while the two year was up 9.07% to 3.970. The long 30-year was up a massive 10.39% across the week, even though selling partially reversed as the Friday session progressed. This is NOT normal. Rumours went around it was China, or Japan selling bonds, but more likely it was driven by hedge funds caught out of position. “Until Treasuries stabilize and start to behave normally, risk assets will struggle,” Barclays analysts said in a note on Friday.

Normally, bond markets, though a huge element in the financial system do not make moves of this scale, after all they are meant to be the safe, secure, boring backstop to the financial system. Macro commentator James Aitken told his clients. “Financial history reminds us that when a policymaker tells hyper-financialised markets he or she is not targeting markets, markets will force the policymaker to target them. Indeed.

In Asia, Japanese stocks were by far the worst performers, given that the country holds large export exposure to both the U.S. and China. Mainland Chinese stocks fell relatively less than their peers, boosted by apparent buying by state-backed funds – China’s so-called national team.

The Australian share market closed lower on Friday, sealing a week that had the exchange record some of its most outsized moves since 2020 as a trade war between the world’s two largest economic powers gathered momentum. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.8 per cent, or 63.1 points, to 7646.5 points at the close. The index dropped more than 2 per cent earlier in the session, but improved in afternoon trading as US futures climbed. The ASX 200 tumbled around 0.3 per cent this week – its second consecutive weekly loss.

Investors are redirecting money once bound for Wall Street and fast-growing Silicon Valley tech giants back towards the Australian share market as intense volatility in the United States turns the ASX into a safe haven. Despite a drop on Friday taking the S&P/ASX 200’s falls this year to 6.3 per cent, the local benchmark has performed far better than Wall Street, where the S&P 500 is down more than 10 per cent and the NASDAQ some 15 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
In A Hyper Financialised World, Bond Markets Rule…
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In A Hyper Financialised World, Bond Markets Rule…

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia. This past week was an object lesson in the power of the Bond market. And not for the first time. A favourite quote on markets comes from the former CEO of Citicorp, Walter Wriston, who observed that, “Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated. Remember those Words.

I made shows through the week about the fallout from the Trump tariffs and the subsequent 90 day pause of the reciprocal tariffs, the extra hikes directed at China, and China’s escalation back, (Beijing increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% on Friday after Trump’s move to hike duties on Chinese goods) and the turmoil on financial markets, especially a significant sell-down in US Treasuries. This lifted yields (remember bond prices and yields move in opposite directions), with the 10-year up 12.4% across the week to 4.494, while the two year was up 9.07% to 3.970. The long 30-year was up a massive 10.39% across the week, even though selling partially reversed as the Friday session progressed. This is NOT normal. Rumours went around it was China, or Japan selling bonds, but more likely it was driven by hedge funds caught out of position. “Until Treasuries stabilize and start to behave normally, risk assets will struggle,” Barclays analysts said in a note on Friday.

Normally, bond markets, though a huge element in the financial system do not make moves of this scale, after all they are meant to be the safe, secure, boring backstop to the financial system. Macro commentator James Aitken told his clients. “Financial history reminds us that when a policymaker tells hyper-financialised markets he or she is not targeting markets, markets will force the policymaker to target them. Indeed.

In Asia, Japanese stocks were by far the worst performers, given that the country holds large export exposure to both the U.S. and China. Mainland Chinese stocks fell relatively less than their peers, boosted by apparent buying by state-backed funds – China’s so-called national team.

The Australian share market closed lower on Friday, sealing a week that had the exchange record some of its most outsized moves since 2020 as a trade war between the world’s two largest economic powers gathered momentum. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.8 per cent, or 63.1 points, to 7646.5 points at the close. The index dropped more than 2 per cent earlier in the session, but improved in afternoon trading as US futures climbed. The ASX 200 tumbled around 0.3 per cent this week – its second consecutive weekly loss.

Investors are redirecting money once bound for Wall Street and fast-growing Silicon Valley tech giants back towards the Australian share market as intense volatility in the United States turns the ASX into a safe haven. Despite a drop on Friday taking the S&P/ASX 200’s falls this year to 6.3 per cent, the local benchmark has performed far better than Wall Street, where the S&P 500 is down more than 10 per cent and the NASDAQ some 15 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

RMS Trump Sails On, Having Avoided An Iceberg, For Now…

Yesterday I went through the market falls, as China retaliated to the Trump tariffs, even as President Donald Trump ploughed ahead with plans to impose steep new tariffs on imports despite warnings that the policy could trigger economic chaos.

Yet only 13 hours after the duties had gone into effect, in a social media post, Trump said that a set of tariffs on imports from many of America’s largest trading partners were paused. He indicated that turmoil in the financial markets following the implementation of the tariffs played a role in his decision.

In particular Bond yields had climbed, with speculation this might be a signal China was selling some of their massive holding, or perhaps it was hedge funds needing to raise cash to meet margin calls in a falling market, or maybe it related to elevated inflation fears. But it does appear the ructions on the Bond Markets cash a shadow on the tariff show.

Just remember this is a 90-day pause, and 10% tariffs are still in play, with some suggesting that these will remain a baseline for any negotiations, while others are seeking zero tariffs. This has a long way to go, and markets will likely remain jittery, so expect more icebergs ahead.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
RMS Trump Sails On, Having Avoided An Iceberg, For Now…
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RMS Trump Sails On, Having Avoided An Iceberg, For Now…

Yesterday I went through the market falls, as China retaliated to the Trump tariffs, even as President Donald Trump ploughed ahead with plans to impose steep new tariffs on imports despite warnings that the policy could trigger economic chaos.

Yet only 13 hours after the duties had gone into effect, in a social media post, Trump said that a set of tariffs on imports from many of America’s largest trading partners were paused. He indicated that turmoil in the financial markets following the implementation of the tariffs played a role in his decision.

In particular Bond yields had climbed, with speculation this might be a signal China was selling some of their massive holding, or perhaps it was hedge funds needing to raise cash to meet margin calls in a falling market, or maybe it related to elevated inflation fears. But it does appear the ructions on the Bond Markets cash a shadow on the tariff show.

Just remember this is a 90-day pause, and 10% tariffs are still in play, with some suggesting that these will remain a baseline for any negotiations, while others are seeking zero tariffs. This has a long way to go, and markets will likely remain jittery, so expect more icebergs ahead.

Will Trump’s Titanic Tariff Plan Hit An Iceberg, And Who Goes Down With The Ship?

President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs are now in place, creating self-inflicted choppy waters, as RMS Trump sails on through a flog of confusion, dealing a thunderous blow to the world economy as he pushes forward efforts to drastically reorder global trade.

Trump argues that the taxes will boost US prosperity and revive domestic manufacturing, but his approach has drawn criticism from Wall Street, economists and some in Trump’s own party, who have questioned the administration’s methodology and warned of an economic fallout that could include higher consumer prices and slower growth, if not a recession. He has long argued for tariffs as a solution for his trade grievances, this plan will reassert US power, revive domestic manufacturing and extract geopolitical concessions.

He signed an executive order raising reciprocal tariffs on China to 84%, up from the 34% announced on April 2. With 20% in existing duties already in place, the total tariffs on Chinese goods now amount to 104%, along with import taxes on roughly 60 trading partners that run trade surpluses with the US. That comes after a 10% baseline tariff for most US trading partners took effect Saturday.

Asian countries are bearing the brunt of the measures, with Cambodia and Vietnam facing 49% and 46% charges, respectively. Imports from the European Union will be taxed at a 20% rate.

All of this, the president and his administration have repeatedly promised, will lead to a future boom, both economically for the US and politically for his party.

“We’re going to win the midterm elections, and we’re going to have a tremendous, thundering landslide,” Trump told Republican lawmakers and donors Tuesday. “I really believe that.”

The truth is, the economic sea has gotten very stormy, and there are indeed icebergs out there, but the as to who will get through safely, and who will go down with the ship is too hard to call.

Gold remains a relative safe haven, sitting just over 3,060 USD per oz, but commodities are down with WTI Oil at 58.19, and Brent at 61.44. and Bitcoin was last at 77,764.

As I discussed last week, much of the pain will be born in the US, as globalisation, which benefitted some but not all unravels. Beyond that new trade patterns will emerge, but meantime markets will remain tossed about by the currents and tides so batten down the hatches.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Will Trump's Titanic Tariff Plan Hit An Iceberg, And Who Goes Down With The Ship?
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