Tag: Market Update

Markets Say Confused? You Will Be…

Our latest weekly markets update.

Overall, the trading week was marked by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift to cutting rates sooner and faster next year, bolstering bets among bulls that equities are poised to reset record highs in 2024.

MSCI’s index of global shares added 0.12% and headed for a monthly gain of 8.7% after investors grew increasingly confident that U.S. interest rates have peaked, with the market narrative shifting to the timing of cuts.

Bank of America strategists, have laid out an optimistic forecast for the S&P 500, predicting the index will reach a new high of 5,000 by the end of 2024. This bullish outlook follows a notable monthly surge in the index, which saw its strongest gain since July of the previous year.

The bank’s equity team has identified a transition in market dynamics from broad macroeconomic concerns to a focus on individual company performance, dubbing the current climate a “stock picker’s paradise.” This shift is underscored by a significant increase in “idiosyncratic alpha,” which suggests that stock-specific dynamics are becoming more important for generating robust returns.

But, Investors are understandably having great difficulty determining where the economy is actually headed given it has not responded as it normally would to the extraordinary tightening of monetary policy.

Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world’s two largest economies.

The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year’s growth seen slowing to 2.6%. Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of “mild recessions” in Europe and the UK.

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When Hype And Reality Collide….

This is our weekly market update.

Here is the big question. Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? That’s the question investors are asking as the S&P 500 heads into the close of the year with fresh highs possibly coming into view. A softer tone to U.S. economic data this week has fueled rate-cuts bets, pushing Treasury yields down and lifting equity markets. For the week, the S&P 500 added 2.2% while the Nasdaq composite rose 2.4% and the Dow climbed 1.9%.

This extended a rally that has seen the S&P 500 gain over 9% since late October. The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Its record closing level, from January 2022, is some 6% away.

Whether it can reach those levels in coming weeks depends in-part on how convinced investors are that the U.S. economy is on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed brings down inflation without badly damaging growth. So far, the economy has proven resilient in the face of tighter monetary policy, though some measures of employment and consumer demand have softened.

Leading global investors expect inflation and interest rates to remain high well into next year and are bracing for more volatile sharemarkets where easy returns will be hard to find.

Top fund managers, company founders and superannuation funds told the Sohn Hearts & Minds event at the Sydney Opera House on Friday that they were looking beyond big name, overpriced Wall Street stocks that would struggle to deliver growth.

Instead, investors willing to gamble on unloved and unpopular stocks would do best, they said. Many investors warn there is a huge insolvency risk lurking in private markets.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
When Hype And Reality Collide....
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Markets Muddle Higher As Yet Another US Credit Rating Agency Goes Negative!

Its been another crazy week on the markets, with a still-jittery bond market clouding the outlook for a rally in U.S. stocks.

Stocks and bonds have been in a tight relationship over the last few months, with the S&P 500 index surging nearly 7% in the last 10 sessions while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled from a 16-year high to 4.657. Helping market sentiment on Friday was a steadier US Treasury market.

After yields tumbled on Wednesday and surged on Thursday, they were little changed on Friday. The yield on the 10-year was 3 basis points higher in a late move, after having been little changed most of the session. Oil also steadied after a bout of volatility with Brent retaking the $US80 a barrel level. Gold was lower with the futures sitting at 1942.60, down 1.38% on the day, while Iron ore extended its rally, pressing through $US128 a tonne in Singapore.

At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index,, which measures expectations for stock gyrations, has fallen to a seven-week low of 14.17. While such a retreat in Wall Street’s “fear gauge” would normally be a green light for stocks, there’s a catch: it has not been reflected in the most closely watched measure of Treasury volatility expectations, the MOVE index, which remains near its recent high.

Plus, Moody’s on Friday lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to “negative” from “stable” citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability, a move that drew immediate criticism from President Joe Biden’s administration. The move follows a rating downgrade of the sovereign by another ratings agency, Fitch, this year, which came after months of political brinkmanship around the U.S. debt ceiling.

Bargain hunters are swirling around beaten-down shares of U.S. banks, even as skeptical investors say the sector’s problems are likely to persist for some time. The S&P 500 bank index is down around 11% in 2023, a year that began with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and several other lenders in the worst banking crisis since 2008. The broader S&P 500, by contrast, is up around 15%.

Bank stocks are at an all-time low compared with the S&P 500 based on relative prices, according to data from BofA Global Research. That tumble has made their valuations attractive to some investors: the sector trades at eight times forward earnings, less than half of the 19.7 valuation of the S&P 500.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Markets Muddle Higher As Yet Another US Credit Rating Agency Goes Negative!
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Markets Muddle Higher As Yet Another US Credit Rating Agency Goes Negative!

Its been another crazy week on the markets, with a still-jittery bond market clouding the outlook for a rally in U.S. stocks.

Stocks and bonds have been in a tight relationship over the last few months, with the S&P 500 index surging nearly 7% in the last 10 sessions while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled from a 16-year high to 4.657. Helping market sentiment on Friday was a steadier US Treasury market.

After yields tumbled on Wednesday and surged on Thursday, they were little changed on Friday. The yield on the 10-year was 3 basis points higher in a late move, after having been little changed most of the session. Oil also steadied after a bout of volatility with Brent retaking the $US80 a barrel level. Gold was lower with the futures sitting at 1942.60, down 1.38% on the day, while Iron ore extended its rally, pressing through $US128 a tonne in Singapore.

At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index,, which measures expectations for stock gyrations, has fallen to a seven-week low of 14.17. While such a retreat in Wall Street’s “fear gauge” would normally be a green light for stocks, there’s a catch: it has not been reflected in the most closely watched measure of Treasury volatility expectations, the MOVE index, which remains near its recent high.

Plus, Moody’s on Friday lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to “negative” from “stable” citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability, a move that drew immediate criticism from President Joe Biden’s administration. The move follows a rating downgrade of the sovereign by another ratings agency, Fitch, this year, which came after months of political brinkmanship around the U.S. debt ceiling.

Bargain hunters are swirling around beaten-down shares of U.S. banks, even as skeptical investors say the sector’s problems are likely to persist for some time. The S&P 500 bank index is down around 11% in 2023, a year that began with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and several other lenders in the worst banking crisis since 2008. The broader S&P 500, by contrast, is up around 15%.

Bank stocks are at an all-time low compared with the S&P 500 based on relative prices, according to data from BofA Global Research. That tumble has made their valuations attractive to some investors: the sector trades at eight times forward earnings, less than half of the 19.7 valuation of the S&P 500.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Let’s Swing Some More…

As we move into November, global stock indexes swung sharply as the U.S. dollar dropped to a six-week low and benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to five-week lows on Friday.

The catalyst was data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October with some seeing this as meaning the Federal Reserve may be done hiking interest rates. We will see.

The Fed, Bank of England, Canada and other Central Banks have all held rates, in recent times, while continuing to underscore the drive towards their inflation targets will mean rates stay higher for longer.

U.S. two-year yields were the lowest since early September after U.S. job growth slowed in part as strikes by the United Auto Workers union against Detroit’s “Big Three” carmakers depressed manufacturing payrolls. The data also showed the increase in annual wages was the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years, pointing to an easing in labor market conditions.

The U.S. dollar index dropped to a six-week low after the jobs data. In afternoon trading, the dollar index fell 1%, with the euro up 1.04% to $1.0730.
“The good news here is that the slowdown will likely keep the Fed on the sidelines going forward,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts. “One of their key concerns has been an overheated economy, especially after last quarter’s GDP growth, and this suggests that problem is going away.”

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Let’s Swing Some More...
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Let’s Swing Some More…

As we move into November, global stock indexes swung sharply as the U.S. dollar dropped to a six-week low and benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to five-week lows on Friday.

The catalyst was data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October with some seeing this as meaning the Federal Reserve may be done hiking interest rates. We will see.

The Fed, Bank of England, Canada and other Central Banks have all held rates, in recent times, while continuing to underscore the drive towards their inflation targets will mean rates stay higher for longer.

U.S. two-year yields were the lowest since early September after U.S. job growth slowed in part as strikes by the United Auto Workers union against Detroit’s “Big Three” carmakers depressed manufacturing payrolls. The data also showed the increase in annual wages was the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years, pointing to an easing in labor market conditions.

The U.S. dollar index dropped to a six-week low after the jobs data. In afternoon trading, the dollar index fell 1%, with the euro up 1.04% to $1.0730.
“The good news here is that the slowdown will likely keep the Fed on the sidelines going forward,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts. “One of their key concerns has been an overheated economy, especially after last quarter’s GDP growth, and this suggests that problem is going away.”

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Volatility Game Continues…

Financial markets are bracing for what could be another momentous week, with a Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. employment data and earnings from technology heavyweight Apple Inc possibly setting the course for stocks and bonds the rest of the year.

So far October has lived up to its reputation for volatility, as a surge in Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty hitting stocks. The S&P 500 index is down 3.5% for the month, adding to losses that have left it over 10% off its late-July high.

Whether the ride remains rough for the rest of 2023 may depend in large part on the bond market. The Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ stance on interest rates and rising U.S. fiscal worries pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield – which moves inversely to prices – to 5% earlier this month, the highest since 2007. Higher Treasury yields are seen as a headwind to stocks, in part because they compete with equities for buyers. It was little changed at 4.838% after crossing 5% earlier in the week.

Investors worry that yields could rise further if the Fed reinforces its hawkish message at the central bank’s Nov. 1 monetary policy meeting. Strong U.S. employment data next Friday could also be a catalyst for yields to rise if it bolsters the case for keeping rates elevated to cool the economy and prevent inflation from rebounding.

Investors are playing a “waiting game of how much does each economic data point need to increase to put another rate hike back on the table,” said Alex McGrath, chief investment officer for NorthEnd Private Wealth.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Volatility Game Continues...
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The Volatility Game Continues…

Financial markets are bracing for what could be another momentous week, with a Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. employment data and earnings from technology heavyweight Apple Inc possibly setting the course for stocks and bonds the rest of the year.

So far October has lived up to its reputation for volatility, as a surge in Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty hitting stocks. The S&P 500 index is down 3.5% for the month, adding to losses that have left it over 10% off its late-July high.

Whether the ride remains rough for the rest of 2023 may depend in large part on the bond market. The Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ stance on interest rates and rising U.S. fiscal worries pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield – which moves inversely to prices – to 5% earlier this month, the highest since 2007. Higher Treasury yields are seen as a headwind to stocks, in part because they compete with equities for buyers. It was little changed at 4.838% after crossing 5% earlier in the week.

Investors worry that yields could rise further if the Fed reinforces its hawkish message at the central bank’s Nov. 1 monetary policy meeting. Strong U.S. employment data next Friday could also be a catalyst for yields to rise if it bolsters the case for keeping rates elevated to cool the economy and prevent inflation from rebounding.

Investors are playing a “waiting game of how much does each economic data point need to increase to put another rate hike back on the table,” said Alex McGrath, chief investment officer for NorthEnd Private Wealth.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Are Equities Toast In The Higher For Longer World?

In my post yesterday, I highlighted the 4200 support level for the S&P 500 and the risks if that was breached. Well, today as the tech sector melted down it dragged the S&P 500 index under the 4,200 support level.

Rising Treasury yields and political gridlock in D.C. dominate financial headlines, but it was GOOGL’s poor results that became one straw too many, and the index shed another 1.4%.

And significantly, soaring U.S. Treasury yields are further boosting the appeal of bonds over stocks, deepening an already painful equity selloff while threatening to weigh on equity performance over the long term.

If earnings growth is squeezed as expected there are many stocks which are currently significantly overvalued – so perhaps the real message here is that individual stock-picking is back baby, rather than playing the index. Plus, there is always the risk of course Central Banks panic and cut rates hard into a recession, something which they have form on doing.

So, in fractious markets sometimes watching from the sidelines is the best move, until things shake out. Remember October is often the worst month for stocks across the year!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Are Equities Toast In The Higher For Longer World?
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Are Equities Toast In The Higher For Longer World?

In my post yesterday, I highlighted the 4200 support level for the S&P 500 and the risks if that was breached. Well, today as the tech sector melted down it dragged the S&P 500 index under the 4,200 support level.

Rising Treasury yields and political gridlock in D.C. dominate financial headlines, but it was GOOGL’s poor results that became one straw too many, and the index shed another 1.4%.

And significantly, soaring U.S. Treasury yields are further boosting the appeal of bonds over stocks, deepening an already painful equity selloff while threatening to weigh on equity performance over the long term.

If earnings growth is squeezed as expected there are many stocks which are currently significantly overvalued – so perhaps the real message here is that individual stock-picking is back baby, rather than playing the index. Plus, there is always the risk of course Central Banks panic and cut rates hard into a recession, something which they have form on doing.

So, in fractious markets sometimes watching from the sidelines is the best move, until things shake out. Remember October is often the worst month for stocks across the year!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/