Tag: Monetary Policy

Who’s Telling Porkies Now?

The unelected, neo-liberal biased International Monetary Fund, one among many technocrat groups which try to impose top-down advice based on their underlying philosophy, recently released their latest advice relating to Australia. Their concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country.

This time the IMF gave a mixed assessment of recent government budgets and whether Treasurer Jim Chalmers and his state counterparts were helping the RBA to tame Australia’s worst inflation outbreak in decades, because they warned the federal and state governments that any further unexpected rise in spending will force the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates high, and that future cost-of-living relief needs to be targeted.

We are certainly seeing some evidence of that in our household surveys, the findings of which I will discuss on Tuesday on my live show at 8pm Sydney time. Some are benefiting from the payments, despite having strong cash flow and savings, whereas for those under financial pressure, the rebates are hardly touching the sides, creating a more unequal story financially speaking. Indeed, One in four mortgage holders have had to skip paying for another expense to prioritise keeping a roof over their head, according to Finder.

This is an important point, because its Dr Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher have hinted that they plan to announce another round of household subsidies before the next federal election, as Labor tries to placate voter anger over high inflation.

They also called for a complete overhaul of Australia’s tax system and suggested the government phase out $52 billion of superannuation tax concessions and the $19 billion capital gains tax discount to fund a reduction in personal income and company tax rates.

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Walking The Uncertainty Tightrope Towards Who Knows What Next!

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. To remind our loyal viewer, this is a data rich show, as I get the weeks developments into perspective.

Market trends are rarely linear for long, they naturally ebb and flow. Despite the flaring conflict in the middle east, and the US election just a month away now, MSCI’s global equities index rose on Friday, though for the week, it showed a roughly 0.7% decline, while the Dow closed at fresh record highs and the US dollar climbed to its highest level since mid-August as investors heaved a sigh of relief after a surprisingly strong U.S. labor market report.

Oil prices rose and settled with their biggest weekly gains in over a year on the mounting threat of a region-wide war in the Middle East, but gains were limited as U.S. President Joe Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iranian oil facilities. Investors remained anxious about how Israel would respond after Iran fired missiles at it on Tuesday. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said earlier that Iran and its regional allies will not back down.

The Australian share-market snapped a three-week winning streak on Friday, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East sent traders fleeing equities and pulled shares down from record highs touched a week earlier. The S&P/ASX 200 ended Friday’s 0.7 per cent lower at 8150 points, dragging the score to a weekly loss of 0.8 per cent, its first since early September. Of the ASX’s 11 sectors, nine ended the session lower.

The IMF this week gave a mixed assessment of recent government budgets and whether Treasurer Jim Chalmers and his state counterparts were helping the RBA to tame Australia’s worst inflation outbreak in decades.

Finally, in crypto, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 5% this week as the escalating conflict in Gaza and Lebanon fuelled flows into safe-haven assets.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Walking The Uncertainty Tightrope Towards Who Knows What Next!
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Will Kiwis Say “Hello” To Deflation?

Compared to the weak RBA rate of 4.35%, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, lifted earlier and higher, and has begun to cut rates as the New Zealand economy slipped into recession. Next week we will get the next RBNZ rate decision, and a new survey has show that although New Zealand business sentiment is improving a window has opened to allow a cut interest rates of 50 basis points. The RBNZ has forecast around 2.5% of rate cuts over a 2.5 year period.

The contrast with Australia is interesting, because the RBA has left rates at a lower rate trying to preserve the gains in employment, whereas the RBNZ lifted more aggressively and tipped the New Zealand economy into a recession. Neither outcome is great, showing the problem with blunt monetary policy tools.

In addition, the latest New Zealand migration stats reveals a sharp moderation in net overseas migration, a critical factor working against economic growth. And worse, a large number of citizens are emigrating from New Zealand, replaced by poorer migrants from developing nations according to Stats NZ. As a result, annual New Zealand’s population growth is slowing, which will moderate demand. And of course New Zealand’s economy is stuck in a protracted per capita recession and unemployment is rising fast.

All up, clearly more rate cuts are coming, and a period of falling prices – deflation – could well be on the cards. As a result, the RBNZ will need to front load those future rate cuts, so 50 basis points next week are highly likely.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Will Kiwis Say “Hello” To Deflation?
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Stars Align To Create A Bubble Dream; But Is A Nightmare Around The Corner?

This is our weekly market update where we review the market action starting in the US, then Europe, Asia, and Australia and also cover commodities and crypto along the way. This is a data packed segment, so be warned!

This week markets drove higher, pretty much across the board, thanks to the fall out from the Federal Reserve is slashing interest rates, more benign US economic data and China finally moving more determinedly to bolster growth as China’s central bank lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, and with more fiscal measures expected to be announced before a week-long Chinese holiday starting on Oct. 1. Listed shares of Chinese companies jumped on the latest series of stimulus measures from Beijing to boost the domestic economy, including those on international markets.

As a result, we saw upswings in markets across the globe, and this despite weaker oil prices and rising conflict in the middle east. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.25%, to an intraday record high. Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index closed at a record high, ending up 0.5% at 528.08. China’s blue chips jumped 4.5%, bringing their weekly rise to 15.7%, the most since November 2008. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also gained 3.6% and was up 13% for the week, its best performance since 1998.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.33%, to 42,313.00, the S&P 500 fell 0.13%, to 5,738.17 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.39%, to 18,119.59. All three major U.S. stock indexes posted a third straight week of gains. Nvidia’s 2.2 per cent decline was the reason for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping on Friday, pointing to a report that China is urging local companies to stay away from its chips. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon shot to 7.236.16 while the Russell 2000 was at 220.33.

The best performer of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), which rose 2.47% while the worst performers of the session was Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), which fell 1.67 and International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) was down 1.16% to 220.84.

“It’s a bubble dream,” according to Bank of America equity strategist Michael Hartnett. His data had another $US10.9 billion flowing into US equities in the week ended September 25.

“Fed cutting into recession is negative for risk assets, but Fed cutting with no recession is positive and investors firmly of the view Fed and China is sufficient policy easing to short-circuit recession risk,” Hartnett wrote.

So in the context of overvalued stocks, markets are still betting on higher ahead, which is quite possible but before the surface there are significant cross currents and risks. So volatility will remain the watch word, and the bubble dream might yet turn to nightmare. We will see.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Stars Align To Create A Bubble Dream; But Is A Nightmare Around The Corner?
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Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!

In the past 48 hours we had a no change interest rate decision from the RBA and monthly headline inflation which dropped within the target 2-3% target range from the partial services heavy monthly data release, thanks to temporary Government handout to ease costs of living so window dressing the results, but which the RBA says they will look through in the policy deliberations.

The RBA, is facing increasing pressures at home to lower borrowing costs, with politicians sparring over the outlook on interest rates ahead of an election due by May 2025. But Bullock said the RBA won’t be dragged into politics as it is splitting with a global easing cycle as it waits for inflation to abate.

So today I want to look at the RBA statement, then delve into the detail from the inflation numbers and finally try to figure out what this all means.

The RBA last month warned the rapid rise in government outlays was one of the factors prolonging high inflation. The bank’s statement was a political headache for Dr Chalmers, and Ms Bullock subsequently softened the central bank’s stance, saying government spending was not the “main game” for inflation.

At the federal level, government spending on childcare, aged care and disability care surged by more than 20 per cent over the past year, while spending on public servant wages jumped 14.5 per cent. Spending on the NDIS has been a major driver of the explosion in government spending. The scheme, which is forecast to cost $49 billion this financial year, is growing at about 20 per cent per year and is on track to cost more than the age pension within a decade.

Since the 2019 calendar year, the underlying cost base in the construction sector has grown by a whopping 36 per cent, compared to around 21 per cent in the non-mining market sector as a whole.

As the public sector expands, productivity growth would temporarily slow as more resources poured into sectors such as healthcare and education, where productivity is about one-third lower than the private sector.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!
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Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!

In the past 48 hours we had a no change interest rate decision from the RBA and monthly headline inflation which dropped within the target 2-3% target range from the partial services heavy monthly data release, thanks to temporary Government handout to ease costs of living so window dressing the results, but which the RBA says they will look through in the policy deliberations.

The RBA, is facing increasing pressures at home to lower borrowing costs, with politicians sparring over the outlook on interest rates ahead of an election due by May 2025. But Bullock said the RBA won’t be dragged into politics as it is splitting with a global easing cycle as it waits for inflation to abate.

So today I want to look at the RBA statement, then delve into the detail from the inflation numbers and finally try to figure out what this all means.

The RBA last month warned the rapid rise in government outlays was one of the factors prolonging high inflation. The bank’s statement was a political headache for Dr Chalmers, and Ms Bullock subsequently softened the central bank’s stance, saying government spending was not the “main game” for inflation.

At the federal level, government spending on childcare, aged care and disability care surged by more than 20 per cent over the past year, while spending on public servant wages jumped 14.5 per cent. Spending on the NDIS has been a major driver of the explosion in government spending. The scheme, which is forecast to cost $49 billion this financial year, is growing at about 20 per cent per year and is on track to cost more than the age pension within a decade.

Since the 2019 calendar year, the underlying cost base in the construction sector has grown by a whopping 36 per cent, compared to around 21 per cent in the non-mining market sector as a whole.

As the public sector expands, productivity growth would temporarily slow as more resources poured into sectors such as healthcare and education, where productivity is about one-third lower than the private sector.

Damp Squib Of A Rate Cut Has Markets On Watch!

This is our weekly market update, designed to help me digest what is happening, starting in the US, probably the most consequential market in the world, then we move to Europe, Asia and end in Australia and also cover commodities and crypto on the way.

On Friday shares on Wall Street were mixed in a narrow range as investors continued to assess the outlook for US interest rates. Why 50 basis points, not 25, and was this a minor course correction, aimed at bringing a soft economic landing, or a sign the FED had left things too long and was trying to head off a lurking recession risk? And was there a hint of political here ahead of the US election? It’s really not clear. And as for that mythical R star – the level at which rate neither detract from, or add to growth, remains like the quest for the holy grail.

One top Federal Reserve policymaker signalled a willingness to cut rates at a fast pace. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that “inflation is running softer than I thought”. He’s now estimating that the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — has risen over the last three months at an annualised rate of less than 1.8 per cent, which is below the Fed’s target of 2 per cent.

But separately, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said she was concerned this week’s 50-basis-point rate cut was “premature”, countering expectations of another similar move anytime soon. “I believe that moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2 per cent target.” Bowman dissented at this week’s meeting, the sole policymaker to do so, voting for a quarter of a percentage point reduction instead.

We know the FED will continue to be data dependent and next week’s US data highlight will arrive on Friday with August’s PCE report.

Gold’s reaction to the most-dovish Fed decision in years proved lackluster. Futures were last at 2647.20, up 1.39% across the week. Plenty of traders thought gold would surge after an outsized rate cut birthing a new cutting cycle. And with top Fed officials projecting many more cuts, it is going to be big. Gold did rally initially on that revelation, but quickly reversed into a larger intraday loss. Fed rate cuts are bullish for gold, but speculators’ gold-futures positioning is overextended.

Australian shares scaled another record high on Friday, tracking a global wave of optimism that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a much-hoped-for soft landing for the world’s largest economy. The S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 per cent to 8209.5, the highest closing level in its history. It climbed to an intraday peak of 8246.2 – setting a record for the sixth straight session. On the week, it gained 1.3 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Damp Squib Of A Rate Cut Has Markets On Watch!
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Damp Squib Of A Rate Cut Has Markets On Watch!

This is our weekly market update, designed to help me digest what is happening, starting in the US, probably the most consequential market in the world, then we move to Europe, Asia and end in Australia and also cover commodities and crypto on the way.

On Friday shares on Wall Street were mixed in a narrow range as investors continued to assess the outlook for US interest rates. Why 50 basis points, not 25, and was this a minor course correction, aimed at bringing a soft economic landing, or a sign the FED had left things too long and was trying to head off a lurking recession risk? And was there a hint of political here ahead of the US election? It’s really not clear. And as for that mythical R star – the level at which rate neither detract from, or add to growth, remains like the quest for the holy grail.

One top Federal Reserve policymaker signalled a willingness to cut rates at a fast pace. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that “inflation is running softer than I thought”. He’s now estimating that the Fed’s favoured gauge of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — has risen over the last three months at an annualised rate of less than 1.8 per cent, which is below the Fed’s target of 2 per cent.

But separately, Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said she was concerned this week’s 50-basis-point rate cut was “premature”, countering expectations of another similar move anytime soon. “I believe that moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2 per cent target.” Bowman dissented at this week’s meeting, the sole policymaker to do so, voting for a quarter of a percentage point reduction instead.

We know the FED will continue to be data dependent and next week’s US data highlight will arrive on Friday with August’s PCE report.

Gold’s reaction to the most-dovish Fed decision in years proved lackluster. Futures were last at 2647.20, up 1.39% across the week. Plenty of traders thought gold would surge after an outsized rate cut birthing a new cutting cycle. And with top Fed officials projecting many more cuts, it is going to be big. Gold did rally initially on that revelation, but quickly reversed into a larger intraday loss. Fed rate cuts are bullish for gold, but speculators’ gold-futures positioning is overextended.

Australian shares scaled another record high on Friday, tracking a global wave of optimism that the US Federal Reserve will deliver a much-hoped-for soft landing for the world’s largest economy. The S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 per cent to 8209.5, the highest closing level in its history. It climbed to an intraday peak of 8246.2 – setting a record for the sixth straight session. On the week, it gained 1.3 per cent.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Rate Cut Dance Begins; But You’re Not Invited!

To the surprise of no one the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday as signalled in my earlier post, and they went for the more aggressive half percentage point. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades. It was the Fed’s first rate cut in more than four years. Governor Michelle Bowman dissented in favor of a smaller, quarter-point cut — the first dissent by a governor since 2005 and the first dissent from any member of the FOMC since 2022.

The impact of the first cut from the FED echoed through global markets. But remember that the FED shift lower to 4.75% to 5% probably won’t impact the Bank of England’s latest rate decision, which will most likely be a hold, following last month’s cuts.

So far as Australia is concerned, the new FED rates are still significantly higher than the RBA’s weak 4.35%, and inflation in Australia is running much hotter as a result. The data flows in Australia also suggests no reason for the RBA to cut anytime soon, as for example the the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2 per cent in August, according to seasonally adjusted data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

And another data point from the ABS showed that Australia’s population grew by 2.3 per cent to 27.1 million people in March 2024. Our population at 31 March 2024 was 27.1 million people, having grown by 615,300 people over the previous year. Net overseas migration drove 83 per cent of this population growth, while births and deaths, known as natural increase, made up the other 17 per cent.

I don’t thing the FED’s move based on inflation at 2.2% there has much relevance in the short term in Australia. Were it not for the massive flood of migrants and the job creation programmes funded by state and federal government, we would probably be in a recession, and rate cuts would already be in play. But the brutal truth is Government policy is keeping rates higher for longer.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Rate Cut Dance Begins; But You’re Not Invited!

To the surprise of no one the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday as signalled in my earlier post, and they went for the more aggressive half percentage point. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades. It was the Fed’s first rate cut in more than four years. Governor Michelle Bowman dissented in favor of a smaller, quarter-point cut — the first dissent by a governor since 2005 and the first dissent from any member of the FOMC since 2022.

The impact of the first cut from the FED echoed through global markets. But remember that the FED shift lower to 4.75% to 5% probably won’t impact the Bank of England’s latest rate decision, which will most likely be a hold, following last month’s cuts.

So far as Australia is concerned, the new FED rates are still significantly higher than the RBA’s weak 4.35%, and inflation in Australia is running much hotter as a result. The data flows in Australia also suggests no reason for the RBA to cut anytime soon, as for example the the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2 per cent in August, according to seasonally adjusted data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

And another data point from the ABS showed that Australia’s population grew by 2.3 per cent to 27.1 million people in March 2024. Our population at 31 March 2024 was 27.1 million people, having grown by 615,300 people over the previous year. Net overseas migration drove 83 per cent of this population growth, while births and deaths, known as natural increase, made up the other 17 per cent.

I don’t thing the FED’s move based on inflation at 2.2% there has much relevance in the short term in Australia. Were it not for the massive flood of migrants and the job creation programmes funded by state and federal government, we would probably be in a recession, and rate cuts would already be in play. But the brutal truth is Government policy is keeping rates higher for longer.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/