Banking Crisis Incoming?

Last Thursday the S&P 500’s bank index finished down 6.6% after hitting its lowest level since mid-October, its biggest one-day drop in over two years as Investors fled the sector after tech-industry lender SVB Financial Group launched a share sale to shore up its balance sheet due to declining deposits from startups struggling for funding and following crypto bank Silvergate’s decision to wind down operations.

Shares of SVB, whose operating segments include Silicon Valley Bank, slumped over 50% in their deepest one-day drop on record after the company announced a $1.75 billion share sale late on Wednesday. SVB is battling cash burn due to declining deposits from startups struggling with a venture capital funding drought.

Unlike most banks, which are helped by rising rates, SVB Financial is “generally hurt by them,” Oppenheimer says, as its deposit base is “generally made up of commercial customers who are rate-sensitive.”

The slump in SVB Financial further soured the sentiment on banking stocks, which have been pressured by a deeper inversion in the Treasury yield curve – a harbinger for a recession.

Morgan Stanley analysts said lower 2023 NII guidance at SVB is driven by cash burn among private companies that bank with SVB. This, according to the analysts, will cause SIVB to bring more higher-cost sweep accounts onto its balance sheet, paying roughly the Fed funds rate to do so.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Risk On In Tech And Financials

The S&P 500 slumped Friday, amid fears of contagion that swept through banking stocks as regulators closed SVB Financial to protect customer funds after the beleaguered bank’s effort to secure funding failed.

The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%, or 333 points, the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.8%.

SVB Financial Group was closed by regulators and its deposits placed under control of regulators to protect depositors following a run on deposits, after its parent company’s share price crashed a record 60% on Thursday.

In the latest update regarding the rapidly moving SVB Financial Group saga, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) said Friday that SVB has been shut down by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation.

The regulator, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as receiver, revealed that the FDIC created the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara (DINB) to protect insured depositors. (250k)

“The FDIC as receiver immediately transferred to the DINB all insured deposits of Silicon Valley Bank,” the FDIC said in a statement.
They added that all insured depositors will have access to their insured deposits no later than Monday, March 13.

The FDIC said it will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend within the next week. For any remaining uninsured funds, depositors will receive a receivership certificate. As the FDIC sells the assets of Silicon Valley Bank, future dividend payments may be made to certificate holders.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

All About The Fed, And What Might Break First!

In this week’s market update we look at the contention between the markets and Central Banks. The former is banking on cuts later this year, the latter focusing on inflation control, and the need for higher interest rates. Both cannot be true.

And results this past round suggest weakness ahead.

CONTENTS

0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
00:30 US Monetary Policy
03:00 US Markets
07:35 US Bond Yields
08:15 US Terminal Rates
10:30 Gold (Who Is Buying?)
12:00 Sound Money??
16:25 Oil
18:20 European Markets
19:25 Euro Terminal Rates
21:00 Asian Markets
23:10 Australian Markets
25:54 Crypto
26:55 Summary And Close

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
All About The Fed, And What Might Break First!
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All About The Fed, And What Might Break First!

In this week’s market update we look at the contention between the markets and Central Banks. The former is banking on cuts later this year, the latter focusing on inflation control, and the need for higher interest rates. Both cannot be true.

And results this past round suggest weakness ahead.

CONTENTS

0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
00:30 US Monetary Policy
03:00 US Markets
07:35 US Bond Yields
08:15 US Terminal Rates
10:30 Gold (Who Is Buying?)
12:00 Sound Money??
16:25 Oil
18:20 European Markets
19:25 Euro Terminal Rates
21:00 Asian Markets
23:10 Australian Markets
25:54 Crypto
26:55 Summary And Close

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

So Long, And Thanks For All The Fish! – With Tarric Brooker… [Podcast]

Tarric Brooker joins me for my last Friday afternoon chat for a month or so, as I relocate to the UK. For the reasons see here: https://youtu.be/7Nj6N_amn3Y

We discussed a range of viewers questions, for which thanks.

I have genuinely enjoyed my regular chats with Tarric, and rest assured we plan to continue them once I have relocated.

Meantime, you can see the charts on his Substack: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-dfa-q-and-a

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
So Long, And Thanks For All The Fish! - With Tarric Brooker... [Podcast]
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Amplified Concerns Signals Further Market Falls Ahead! [Podcast]

In the latest market update, we look at stronger economic data from the US driving inflation and FED rates higher. We also cover Europe, Asia and Australia. Risks seem elevated with regards to future market action! A wake-up call to Bulls?

CONTENTS

0:00 Introduction
1:30 Earnings and PEG
6:24 PCE Read
9:45 New Home Sales
11:39 US Markets
14:15 Oil Prices And the USD
17:10 European Markets
19:35 Asian Markets
21:20 Australian Market
23:54 Crypto
24:11 Summary and Conclusion

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Amplified Concerns Signals Further Market Falls Ahead! [Podcast]
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Amplified Concerns Signals Further Market Falls Ahead!

In the latest market update, we look at stronger economic data from the US driving inflation and FED rates higher. We also cover Europe, Asia and Australia. Risks seem elevated with regards to future market action! A wake-up call to Bulls?

CONTENTS

0:00 Introduction
1:30 Earnings and PEG
6:24 PCE Read
9:45 New Home Sales
11:39 US Markets
14:15 Oil Prices And the USD
17:10 European Markets
19:35 Asian Markets
21:20 Australian Market
23:54 Crypto
24:11 Summary and Conclusion

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

More Bank Tricks To Make You Poorer!

Great article from The Conversation which discusses how deposit interest rates are not rising as they should, giving the banks the opportunity to bolster their profits.

As I discussed recently with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar, people need to be careful, as the market is very misleading, or worse.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Welcome To The Profit Price Spiral!

A new report suggests that inflation has been largely driven by excess company profit growth, and that the focus on a wage price spiral is misleading.

This discussion in already running in other countries, including the US and NZ.

Perhaps the RBA’s over focus on wage growth (and their poor forward estimates of future wages growth) are part of the problem.

Seem to me, the pro-corporate focus of regulators and Government is doing us a great disservice, with significant damage to society and core values.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

More Household Pain Predicted In New Zealand!

The RBNZ Team lead by Adrian Orr was questioned in Parliament today, and we got more insight into the trajectory of rates, and the impact on households, with the debt servicing ratios set to rise higher than before the GFC! There was a sharp intake of breath!

In addition, there was a concession to the fact that if lending had been tighter, QE and money printing more controlled, then inflation would be lower. Is this the first time a Central Banker admitted this?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
More Household Pain Predicted In New Zealand!
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