Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The latest data from APRA shows a small fall in mortgage delinquencies and a rise in offset balances. The question is, is this significant or not?
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The trends are clear, in many western countries around the world, home prices have been rising, and in recent years rising fast. The underlying drivers are the freeing up of mortgage markets, and lower interest rates, allowing more people to borrow more, which is why debt has been rising too. As you know I have long argued the rise in home prices to stupid levels is all due to the deregulation of the financial system, driven by neo-liberal thinking which leaves ordinary people in the dust. Greater debt driven demand lifts prices.
Of course, the Government is fixated on the supply side story. And we can expect they will peddle this hard into the election. The government’s housing policies include 1.2 million new homes built by mid-2029, a $9.3 billion agreement with states and territories to support social housing and homelessness services, a scheme to help 40,000 households purchase a new or existing home, and tax incentives to support investment in new build-to-rent developments. One of those latter tax incentives includes increasing the capital works tax discount depreciation rate from 2.5 per cent to four per cent.
The other factor in play is high migration, another demand driver, with another 2 million people expected to land in the country over the next few years. This was subject to interesting questioning from Senator Bragg in Estimates recently. Astonishingly, Treasury has not considered the impact of high migration on housing demand (and implicitly) price.
But what of the tax breaks for investors? Well according to a new report from Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS), Two tax breaks are “disproportionately” benefiting Australia’s richest while simultaneously fuelling the housing affordability crisis. The report criticises the capital gains tax deduction for property, where only 50 per cent of capital gains made from an asset are taxed when it is sold, and negative gearing, which allows investment expenses to be deducted from income.
ACOSS says the wealthiest 10% of households own two-thirds of all investment properties and are receiving 82% of the $16 billion in tax relief the two breaks provide.
While I absolutely agree the investor tax breaks are part of the problem, unless we address too high migration, control unsustainable lending growth, and also work on building enough new homes to meet new demand, the affordability situation will continue to deteriorate.
As a result, many will choose to leverage up just to get into the market and out of the rental sector. Government policy is at fault here. And they appear to be avoiding the elephants in the room. Address too high migration, and control unsustainable lending growth.
I wonder if this is because many politicians are also property investors?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The trends are clear, in many western countries around the world, home prices have been rising, and in recent years rising fast. The underlying drivers are the freeing up of mortgage markets, and lower interest rates, allowing more people to borrow more, which is why debt has been rising too. As you know I have long argued the rise in home prices to stupid levels is all due to the deregulation of the financial system, driven by neo-liberal thinking which leaves ordinary people in the dust. Greater debt driven demand lifts prices.
Of course, the Government is fixated on the supply side story. And we can expect they will peddle this hard into the election. The government’s housing policies include 1.2 million new homes built by mid-2029, a $9.3 billion agreement with states and territories to support social housing and homelessness services, a scheme to help 40,000 households purchase a new or existing home, and tax incentives to support investment in new build-to-rent developments. One of those latter tax incentives includes increasing the capital works tax discount depreciation rate from 2.5 per cent to four per cent.
The other factor in play is high migration, another demand driver, with another 2 million people expected to land in the country over the next few years. This was subject to interesting questioning from Senator Bragg in Estimates recently. Astonishingly, Treasury has not considered the impact of high migration on housing demand (and implicitly) price.
But what of the tax breaks for investors? Well according to a new report from Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS), Two tax breaks are “disproportionately” benefiting Australia’s richest while simultaneously fuelling the housing affordability crisis. The report criticises the capital gains tax deduction for property, where only 50 per cent of capital gains made from an asset are taxed when it is sold, and negative gearing, which allows investment expenses to be deducted from income.
ACOSS says the wealthiest 10% of households own two-thirds of all investment properties and are receiving 82% of the $16 billion in tax relief the two breaks provide.
While I absolutely agree the investor tax breaks are part of the problem, unless we address too high migration, control unsustainable lending growth, and also work on building enough new homes to meet new demand, the affordability situation will continue to deteriorate.
As a result, many will choose to leverage up just to get into the market and out of the rental sector. Government policy is at fault here. And they appear to be avoiding the elephants in the room. Address too high migration, and control unsustainable lending growth.
I wonder if this is because many politicians are also property investors?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The latest data from APRA shows a small fall in mortgage delinquencies and a rise in offset balances. The question is, is this significant or not?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today I want to look at the question of refinancing after the RBA rate cut, and whether a long term fixed rate mortgage in Australia would be a good idea.
While the ‘big four’ banks have committed to passing on the full 0.25 percentage point RBA driven rate cut to their customers, meaning those on variable rates will have their interest rate reduced by that amount in the next few months, if your mortgage rate is currently in the high sixes or 7 per cent, then you should definitely look and see if you can get a better rate following the RBA’s rate cut on Tuesday.
Beyond that, there is a fundamental difference between the mortgage markets in the US and Australia. A 30-year fixed mortgage is a dominant product in the US, where they account for about 70 per cent of outstanding mortgages but in Australia the bulk of loans are variable rate loans, which move in line with market rates, and indirectly the RBA cash rate, together with short term fixed rates which are again priced off the yield curve.
In the US, In the US, government-backed institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide liquidity to banks so they can sell 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. As a result, Banks in America are able to offer the riskier loans because of the existence of these so called government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs).
BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink suggested that Australia should introduce 30-year mortgages. The chief executive of the $18 trillion investment giant BlackRock said “We believe Australia should be building a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage market,” in an interview reported in the AFR. Fink, who was a pioneer of the mortgage-backed securities market during the 1980s, says Australia is uniquely positioned to pursue such a development because of the size of its $4 trillion superannuation pool.
Seems to me that engineering long term fixed rates in Australia may sound attractive to the big investment houses, the banks, and even the Government, but I am not convinced it is good for ordinary Australians. And it is worth remembering that through the GFC, US mortgage borrowers defaulted in droves, due to rate resets from low teaser rates, allowing those same investment houses to subsequently hoover up stressed property for a song. They are on the side of investors not prospective home owners.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today I want to look at the question of refinancing after the RBA rate cut, and whether a long term fixed rate mortgage in Australia would be a good idea.
While the ‘big four’ banks have committed to passing on the full 0.25 percentage point RBA driven rate cut to their customers, meaning those on variable rates will have their interest rate reduced by that amount in the next few months, if your mortgage rate is currently in the high sixes or 7 per cent, then you should definitely look and see if you can get a better rate following the RBA’s rate cut on Tuesday.
Beyond that, there is a fundamental difference between the mortgage markets in the US and Australia. A 30-year fixed mortgage is a dominant product in the US, where they account for about 70 per cent of outstanding mortgages but in Australia the bulk of loans are variable rate loans, which move in line with market rates, and indirectly the RBA cash rate, together with short term fixed rates which are again priced off the yield curve.
In the US, In the US, government-backed institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provide liquidity to banks so they can sell 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. As a result, Banks in America are able to offer the riskier loans because of the existence of these so called government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs).
BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink suggested that Australia should introduce 30-year mortgages. The chief executive of the $18 trillion investment giant BlackRock said “We believe Australia should be building a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage market,” in an interview reported in the AFR. Fink, who was a pioneer of the mortgage-backed securities market during the 1980s, says Australia is uniquely positioned to pursue such a development because of the size of its $4 trillion superannuation pool.
Seems to me that engineering long term fixed rates in Australia may sound attractive to the big investment houses, the banks, and even the Government, but I am not convinced it is good for ordinary Australians. And it is worth remembering that through the GFC, US mortgage borrowers defaulted in droves, due to rate resets from low teaser rates, allowing those same investment houses to subsequently hoover up stressed property for a song. They are on the side of investors not prospective home owners.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
As foreshadowed, housing has become a major battleground for the main parties, as record prices, an acute shortage of rental properties and high interest rates combine to significantly reduce affordability. We know that on an international basis, household debt to income ratios in Australia are significantly higher, than even New Zealand and Canada, who both have severe housing crises. Well, done Australia, a direct result of 30 years of bad policy, and overleverage. And weirdly even now, according to IFM data the surge in average loan sizes is behind the inexorable growth in Australian home prices.
Today I want to look at the latest data on new loans from the ABS, in a release which has now gone from monthly to quarterly, so data released this week covers the October to December quarter 2024. Talk about lagged data! The RBA gross debt levels for January reported a significant uplift, especially for investor loans, as I discussed in a recent post. “Is The RBA Really All In For A Rate Cut In February?”
On the way to this analysis though we need to pause on The Treasurers recent announcement that It will soon become easier for Australians with student loan debt to get a mortgage after Treasurer Jim Chalmers instructed the prudential regulator to relax how HECS was treated when banks conducted mortgage serviceability tests.
So we are seeing mortgage debt ballooning, to the benefit of the banks – see CBA’s recent results. When interviewed conveniently the CEO denied that growth in mortgage lending had any significant impact on house prices. But we know of course the strong credit impulse is one of the main drivers of home price growth, supported by greater demand from high migration, tax breaks for investors (many of whom are losing money on a cash flow basis) and lack of appropriate supply.
The whole housing issue is now an election battleground, with The Coalition opposition promising to allow home buyers to raid their superannuation savings for a deposit, and it has committed to watering down responsible lending obligations.
Both sides have policies which will boost housing demand and increase mortgage debt, driving prices higher. As a result, they would make the affordability situation worse.
Remember the word “mortgage” comes from the Old French phrase “morgage” which translates to “death pledge”. The term refers to the pledge ending, or “dying”, when the loan is paid or the property is foreclosed. Given the longer terms of new mortgages, and the later age of getting one, Mortgage defined as a death pledge has never been truer.
But then does ordinary Australians who want a home have any choice but to play this game? Frankly no, because the game is rigged!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The ABS released their monthly lending indicators for September today, and it showed a strong uptick in new mortgage loans, in contrast to poor household spending trends and confidence overall, though as we will see there are questions about this dataset too. Significantly, we also note the ABS is about to terminate its monthly reporting of new loans data, saying the monthly Lending Indicators publication will transition to a quarterly release.
My observation is different because the monitoring of new loans for housing is an essential barometer for the economy, without the monthly data it will be easier for lenders to continue their push to reduce lending standards (something evidently being supported by the opposition party) and so drive home prices even higher.
So credit for home lending, especially investors is booming. Worth recalling here the RBA’s recent warning that falling interest rates could trigger a property price boom that encourages households to take on too much debt.
As you know my surveys highlight some households are under extreme financial pressure, and I will be discussing this in my live show next Tuesday, so official data on household spending, is also an important indicator. So conveniently, the ABS also released household spending data for August today. However, I have issues with these figures too as this data excludes, Rent and other dwelling services, Electricity, gas and other fuels, Communication Services, Education Services and Insurance and other financial services. IN other words, the spending data is partial and incomplete, and excludes more than half of a typical mortgaged or renting household.
So all up, the spending indicators are not really meaningful, yet the ABS will be enhancing the Monthly Household Spending Indicator and ceasing the Retail Trade publication after the June 2025 reference period. On the other hand, the data on lending will be only released four times a year.
This is another example of data not fit for purpose, and I assume the financial pressure the ABS is under. But it does beg the question. What have they got to hide – and who is pulling their strings?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Home builders are falling off the perch at an alarming rate with high rates of insolvency among construction firms, many of whom were homebuilders, to 3,000 in the past year. While many of these were small firms, we are still seeing a spate of larger firms going under. We are encountering more people in our 1:1 discussions with people coping with half built projects, no builder to take over the work, rising costs and blown out completion dates. No wonder people prefer to buying existing property.
The latest quarterly data on the value of construction work done also fell by 0.1% over Q2 to be 2.9% lower year-on-year.
More broadly, The Albanese Government is a complete mess on housing with the three bills that comprise its $32bn Housing for Australia plan blocked in the senate. These include The Help to Buy shares equity scheme. The Housing Future Fund equity investment vehicle to build just 13,000 houses per year. And the Build to Rent legislation which is designed to assist corporate to get tax breaks to build and then rent units, probably at higher than market rents. After all they are designed to make profits for those investing corporates and superfunds.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has threatened to use the Senate’s obstruction of Help to Buy as a trigger for a double dissolution election. Welcome to that time of the political cycle where we find ourselves burrowing into the election date speculation rabbit hole.
The real fix of course is to cut immigration significantly, as this would ease the rental shortage and lower rental inflation; which in turn would take pressure off the RBA to hold rates higher for longer enabling builders to clear the huge backlog of approvals and easing pressure on households. And on that front, Moody’s says that Australian mortgage delinquency rates, which increased over the June quarter, will continue to rise moderately over the rest of this year as high interest rates and sticky inflation put financial stress on households.
Standing back, the policy errors made by the current government are literally hitting home, and with the prospect of more political tricks on all sides of politics, the real impact on people will continue. They should be held to account for their mistakes.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Home builders are falling off the perch at an alarming rate with high rates of insolvency among construction firms, many of whom were homebuilders, to 3,000 in the past year. While many of these were small firms, we are still seeing a spate of larger firms going under. We are encountering more people in our 1:1 discussions with people coping with half built projects, no builder to take over the work, rising costs and blown out completion dates. No wonder people prefer to buying existing property.
The latest quarterly data on the value of construction work done also fell by 0.1% over Q2 to be 2.9% lower year-on-year.
More broadly, The Albanese Government is a complete mess on housing with the three bills that comprise its $32bn Housing for Australia plan blocked in the senate. These include The Help to Buy shares equity scheme. The Housing Future Fund equity investment vehicle to build just 13,000 houses per year. And the Build to Rent legislation which is designed to assist corporate to get tax breaks to build and then rent units, probably at higher than market rents. After all they are designed to make profits for those investing corporates and superfunds.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has threatened to use the Senate’s obstruction of Help to Buy as a trigger for a double dissolution election. Welcome to that time of the political cycle where we find ourselves burrowing into the election date speculation rabbit hole.
The real fix of course is to cut immigration significantly, as this would ease the rental shortage and lower rental inflation; which in turn would take pressure off the RBA to hold rates higher for longer enabling builders to clear the huge backlog of approvals and easing pressure on households. And on that front, Moody’s says that Australian mortgage delinquency rates, which increased over the June quarter, will continue to rise moderately over the rest of this year as high interest rates and sticky inflation put financial stress on households.
Standing back, the policy errors made by the current government are literally hitting home, and with the prospect of more political tricks on all sides of politics, the real impact on people will continue. They should be held to account for their mistakes.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
