Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
The latest data to end November 2022 from the RBA and APRA shows that the rate of credit growth is slowing – presumably due to higher rates and reduced borrowing power. That said refinancing including equity draw-down is on the rise…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
People are leaving NSW for other states, driven by the failure of housing and planning policy and ultra-lose lending. The consequences are significant in terms of younger households exiting, while the burden of providing adequate support for older Australians is rising fast.
This mess will create massive problems in the years ahead.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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Given we now have mortgage rates 3% higher than at the start of the year – analysts are asking whether there are yet signs of mortgage portfolio risks in the banking system.
We certainly know that households cash flows are under pressure, from our own mortgage stress analysis, and Roy Morgan’s research on consumer confidence and their own mortgage stress analysis.
And we know that APRA’s 3% “Buffer” is being breached now, and it is even worse when they had set a 2% buffer earlier on.
But all that said, there is a lag between rate rises and delinquency – of months, if not years, so I would not be expecting much movement yet – that comes later. This also aligns with recent incoming data too.
For example, according to the latest Quarterly Statistics from APRA, the banks wrote fewer high loan-to-value ratio mortgages and decreased high debt-to-income lending over the September quarter, which the prudential regulator has welcomed.
They welcomed the fact that the banks have been “improving” the risk characteristics of their new residential mortgage lending, after finding that both high debt-to-income (DTI) and high LVR lending had reduced over the September quarter and suggested that the figures were largely promising given the strength of the banks’ profitability and liquidity positions as well as the reduction in “riskier” lending.
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of my latest live discussion about the latest from models and post code analysis.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:17 Introduction
3:10 Economics and RBA Data
18:01 DFA Stress Analysis
29:44 Mapping
39:09 Scenarios
40:00 Post Code Analysis (Q&A)
1:21:00 Getting Debt Advice Help
1:24:00 Summary And Close
Original show with chat here: https://youtu.be/YANetUOBHrg
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the latest lending stats from the ABS. Overall new loan volumes are down, but refinancing is still running at circa $12 billion a month, close to record highs. On the other hand, first time buyer volumes are down. But the average new loan is growing again, which may be a sign of more equity-mate style redraws.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Departing Chair of Regulator APRA Wayne Byres had some interesting comments about housing and home prices. Perhaps lower home prices would be good!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is a compilation of the evidence APRA gave to the House Standing Committee On Economics on Tuesday. We pulled out the discussions relating to mortgages as rates rise.
They claim there is nothing to see yet, but it is worth listening to the gaps in their knowledge – which prompts me to ask – how would they know?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More than 90 Central Banks have now lifted rates, more than half by at least 75 basis points in one go this year. Last night the UK lifted by 0.5% and we look at their outlook, as more channel Paul Volcker who is widely acknowledged as the premier inflation fighter in Federal Reserve history.
When President Carter nominated him to be Fed Chair in July 1979, Volcker knew he faced a daunting task. Inflation was 11 percent, inflicting pain on financial markets and economic performance, and the second oil shock was unfolding. The Fed’s lack of inflation-fighting credibility had generated severe currency devaluation and a U.S. dollar crisis in late 1978.
At his confirmation hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, Volcker made his views clear. The Fed would have to clamp down on monetary policy to reverse the damaging upward price-wage cycle and wring out inflationary expectations. To his credit, Carter supported Volcker, even though he knew it may cause a recession, as did President Reagan.
Volcker took heat when the Fed sent rates soaring and the economy incurred back-to-back recessions.
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Peter Marshall has been working in the Australian banking and finance industry for over 20 years and oversees Mozo’s extensive product database. He is regularly sought out for his expert commentary and analysis on banking and interest rates trends by print, radio and TV media.
https://mozo.com.au/authors/peter-marshall
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We put together the lending and property price data released today, as we highlight the strong relationship between price movements and credit availability. The ABS shows new lending is down significantly, and prices are sliding at an accelerating rate. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
