Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edited version of my latest live discussion about the latest from models and post code analysis.
CONTENTS
0:00 Start
0:17 Introduction
3:10 Economics and RBA Data
18:01 DFA Stress Analysis
29:44 Mapping
39:09 Scenarios
40:00 Post Code Analysis (Q&A)
1:21:00 Getting Debt Advice Help
1:24:00 Summary And Close
Original show with chat here: https://youtu.be/YANetUOBHrg
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the latest lending stats from the ABS. Overall new loan volumes are down, but refinancing is still running at circa $12 billion a month, close to record highs. On the other hand, first time buyer volumes are down. But the average new loan is growing again, which may be a sign of more equity-mate style redraws.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Departing Chair of Regulator APRA Wayne Byres had some interesting comments about housing and home prices. Perhaps lower home prices would be good!
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is a compilation of the evidence APRA gave to the House Standing Committee On Economics on Tuesday. We pulled out the discussions relating to mortgages as rates rise.
They claim there is nothing to see yet, but it is worth listening to the gaps in their knowledge – which prompts me to ask – how would they know?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More than 90 Central Banks have now lifted rates, more than half by at least 75 basis points in one go this year. Last night the UK lifted by 0.5% and we look at their outlook, as more channel Paul Volcker who is widely acknowledged as the premier inflation fighter in Federal Reserve history.
When President Carter nominated him to be Fed Chair in July 1979, Volcker knew he faced a daunting task. Inflation was 11 percent, inflicting pain on financial markets and economic performance, and the second oil shock was unfolding. The Fed’s lack of inflation-fighting credibility had generated severe currency devaluation and a U.S. dollar crisis in late 1978.
At his confirmation hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, Volcker made his views clear. The Fed would have to clamp down on monetary policy to reverse the damaging upward price-wage cycle and wring out inflationary expectations. To his credit, Carter supported Volcker, even though he knew it may cause a recession, as did President Reagan.
Volcker took heat when the Fed sent rates soaring and the economy incurred back-to-back recessions.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Peter Marshall has been working in the Australian banking and finance industry for over 20 years and oversees Mozo’s extensive product database. He is regularly sought out for his expert commentary and analysis on banking and interest rates trends by print, radio and TV media.
https://mozo.com.au/authors/peter-marshall
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We put together the lending and property price data released today, as we highlight the strong relationship between price movements and credit availability. The ABS shows new lending is down significantly, and prices are sliding at an accelerating rate. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Recent changes in the rules has led banks to start reporting hardship arrangements on customers credit files. They will remain on file for a year beyond the end of the arrangement. This may have implications for some borrowers as they seek to restructure their mortgages in the current rising rate environment.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Conversation had an useful article about how to deal with mortgage debt pain. Bottom line is to get help and advice early.
Home Page
https://moneysmart.gov.au/about-us
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you. Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side. Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make. Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest. Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
The US mortgage industry is seeing its first lenders go out of business after a sudden spike in lending rates, and the wave of failures that’s coming could be the worst since the housing bubble burst about 15 years ago, according to a recent Bloomberg report.
There’s no systemic meltdown coming this time around, because there hasn’t been the same level of lending excesses and because many of the biggest banks pulled back from mortgages after the financial crisis. But market watchers nonetheless expect a string of bankruptcies broad enough to trigger a spike in layoffs in an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of workers, and potentially an increase in some lending rates.
More of the business is now controlled by independent lenders, and with mortgage volumes plunging this year, many are struggling to stay afloat. “The nonbanks are poorly capitalized,” said Nancy Wallace, chair of the real estate group at Berkeley Haas, the business school at University of California, Berkeley. “When the mortgage market tanks they are in trouble.”
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you. Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side. Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make. Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest. Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
