Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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This is an edited version of my live discussion about the latest from our surveys, as we look at mortgage, rental, investor and financial stress across the country, down to a post code level.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A deep dive on mortgage stress, using our mapping tools, as we look across Australia to identify the areas with the highest stress counts – defined in cash flow terms.
This is ahead of my upcoming live stream on Tuesday 12th March, where we will look at specific post code level data. Mark your diaries…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest surveys to the end of February reveals the current state of Household Finances in Australian as measured by cash flow. A record 73.3% of those living in the rental sector are under pressure, while just over half of those with a mortgage are also in net negative cash flow. All up around 48% of households or 4.7 million families are struggling. The causes are clear to see, with costs of living still outstripping real incomes, high mortgage interest rates thanks to RBA monetary policy and rental cost driven sky high. Massive net migration, and bad government housing policies have created this disaster, which will likely be with us for decades. Housing affordability is shot.
So, in today’s show I will walk through the latest findings, ahead of a live show during which we will examine the data at a post code level. That show will be on Tuesday 12th March 2024.
But here we examine how we measure cash flow stress, examine the latest results across mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress, and also look at our price scenarios for the months ahead, alongside our estimates of mortgage defaults in the next 12 months.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Our latest surveys to the end of February reveals the current state of Household Finances in Australian as measured by cash flow. A record 73.3% of those living in the rental sector are under pressure, while just over half of those with a mortgage are also in net negative cash flow. All up around 48% of households or 4.7 million families are struggling. The causes are clear to see, with costs of living still outstripping real incomes, high mortgage interest rates thanks to RBA monetary policy and rental cost driven sky high. Massive net migration, and bad government housing policies have created this disaster, which will likely be with us for decades. Housing affordability is shot.
So, in today’s show I will walk through the latest findings, ahead of a live show during which we will examine the data at a post code level. That show will be on Tuesday 12th March 2024.
But here we examine how we measure cash flow stress, examine the latest results across mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress, and also look at our price scenarios for the months ahead, alongside our estimates of mortgage defaults in the next 12 months.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
DFA released its report for January several weeks back, and confirmed a further rise in mortgage stress. In our show on this important issue, we also discussed the different methods used to assess mortgage stress.
Now new research from Roy Morgan confirms our findings. They say their research shows 1,609,000 mortgage holders (31.0%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to January 2024. This period included an interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day with the RBA raising interest rates by +0.25% to 4.35%.
“The extended pause in official interest rate increases for four months from July – October 2023 reduced the pressure on mortgage holders and allowed growth in several areas of the economy to ‘catch up’ and reduce mortgage stress from the mid-year highs above 1.56 million. However, the interest rate increase in November has added renewed pressure on mortgage holders.
“While all eyes are on the latest inflation figures and their potential influence on future movements in interest rates, the fact remains that the greatest impact on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay their mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of income”.
In a few days I will be releasing my February result for stress, and we expect this to remain in the very high range, as costs of living and mortgage costs continue to rise. We also report rental stress, which is right on the front line with rentals in some cases rising 20% or more.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
DFA released its report for January several weeks back, and confirmed a further rise in mortgage stress. In our show on this important issue, we also discussed the different methods used to assess mortgage stress.
Now new research from Roy Morgan confirms our findings. They say their research shows 1,609,000 mortgage holders (31.0%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to January 2024. This period included an interest rate increase on Melbourne Cup Day with the RBA raising interest rates by +0.25% to 4.35%.
“The extended pause in official interest rate increases for four months from July – October 2023 reduced the pressure on mortgage holders and allowed growth in several areas of the economy to ‘catch up’ and reduce mortgage stress from the mid-year highs above 1.56 million. However, the interest rate increase in November has added renewed pressure on mortgage holders.
“While all eyes are on the latest inflation figures and their potential influence on future movements in interest rates, the fact remains that the greatest impact on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay their mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of income”.
In a few days I will be releasing my February result for stress, and we expect this to remain in the very high range, as costs of living and mortgage costs continue to rise. We also report rental stress, which is right on the front line with rentals in some cases rising 20% or more.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of our live discussion about the current state of play of mortgage, rental and financial household stress across Australia, based on our latest surveys and modelling. We had our post code engine online.
Find out more beforehand by watching this show: Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate! https://youtu.be/np4H9RkPqEo
Original live version with chat here: https://youtube.com/live/Qs__lYQMhP4
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Here we answer viewers specific post code requests, following our recent show discussing Household Mortgage, Rental and Financial stress last week “Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate!” https://youtu.be/np4H9RkPqEo
We covered the following (in order):
Hornsby 2077
Mackay 4740 and 4700
Morphett Vale 5162
Busselton 6280
Robertson 2577
Sunnybank Hills 4109
Kew 3101
Kempsey 2440
Moorland 2443
Toowoomba 4350
Mount Hutton 2290
Liverpool 2170
Morayfield 4506
Holland Park 4121
Springwood 2777
Frankstown 3199, 3200
Surfers Paradise 4217
Bayview Heights 4868
Woree 4868
Cambelltown 2560
Whyalla 5600
On Tuesday 13th February in our live show we will discuss this further, so if you have additional requests for post code level analysis, drop them in the chat.
You can get more info about our One to One service here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Here we answer viewers specific post code requests, following our recent show discussing Household Mortgage, Rental and Financial stress last week “Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate!” https://youtu.be/np4H9RkPqEo
We covered the following (in order):
Hornsby 2077
Mackay 4740 and 4700
Morphett Vale 5162
Busselton 6280
Robertson 2577
Sunnybank Hills 4109
Kew 3101
Kempsey 2440
Moorland 2443
Toowoomba 4350
Mount Hutton 2290
Liverpool 2170
Morayfield 4506
Holland Park 4121
Springwood 2777
Frankstown 3199, 3200
Surfers Paradise 4217
Bayview Heights 4868
Woree 4868
Cambelltown 2560
Whyalla 5600
On Tuesday 13th February in our live show we will discuss this further, so if you have additional requests for post code level analysis, drop them in the chat.
You can get more info about our One to One service here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We walk through the latest from our surveys and modelling ahead of our live show which will be on 13th February 2024 at 8pm Sydney where we will look at specific post codes in more detail.
Household financial stress continues to bite, and is spreading into many different types of communities.
Ahead, we do not expect cash flow to improve for many, as mortgage rates will not be falling very soon, the costs of living continue to rise and income growth in real terms is muted, at best.
If you want data on a specific post code, put it in the comments and I will either cover it Tuesday week, or via a separate show.
If you want to get the full data set, this is available via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics
Our One to One Service is also available: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
