Politics – Page 10 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another week shoots past, so Edwin is back for another property update. The chaos continues with talk of “pre-war”, home price rises, and more Government support for property. What could possibly go wrong?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:05:44

Its Edwin’s’ Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida as we look at the low listings, and rentals, and the reasons why markets are not behaving as some (who should know better) said they would.

Edwin referred to this post: https://www.tiktok.com/@shallowchal/video/7326805682114645255

We also look at trends in Western Australia, as well as our normal East Coast analysis.

Things, as they say are getting interesting…

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's' Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:15:45

Is Australia’s Migration Rate Slowing?

The Australian’s Judith Sloan recently debunked KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne’s spurious claim that a “short-sighted”, “kneejerk” cut to immigration would damage productivity and the economy.

So what are the latest figures telling us?

In the Financial Year 2022-23 we saw a record high net overseas migration of 518,000, while the federal government’s latest forecast is for a fall to around 375,000 which by the way would still be the second-highest annual read on record.

Such high volumes are driven in part by the student influx post pandemic.

Ahead, CBA expects a slowdown rate of population growth. “Using net overseas arrivals data for certain visa types till December 2023 suggest net overseas migration for 2023 was ~370k, roughly in line with government estimates for FY24″…

Now while the total number might be down, because the student element is the one moderating and most sensitive to rental demand, it might just help to cool rental growth a little – it is still way too high… many of those coming into the country still are cashed up and ready to buy property. So net, net given the limited supply of new property, due to falling building approvals, this will probably not help to ease undersupply.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is Australia’s Migration Rate Slowing?

00:00 / 00:10:11

Kiwi Inflation Eases, But Slowly, So Rates Will Remain Higher For Longer!

On Wednesday Statistics New Zealand released consumer price index (CPI) data for the December quarter. The data showed that New Zealand inflation slowed in the final three months of 2023, despite indicators of domestic price pressures remained stubbornly strong, which came in below the Reserve Bank’s expectations. As a result, it appears that policymakers are likely to hold until there’s a clearer picture of the economy.

“While this is the smallest annual rise in the CPI in over two years, it remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1 to 3 percent,” consumers prices senior manager Nicola Growden said.

The OCR currently stands at 5.5%. While Investors are betting the RBNZ will start cutting the Official Cash Rate in the second quarter and will lower the benchmark to 4.75% by year’s end. But as I discussed recently, policymakers remained concerned about sticky core prices and most economists expect the RBNZ will delay a rate cut until the second half of 2024. In November, the central bank projected that inflation would drop below 3% in the third quarter of this year.

“Inflation continues to move in the right direction,” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank in Auckland. “The current state of play and the outlook should be sufficient to see the RBNZ pivot away from rate hikes. Rate cuts are not too far away.”

However, others remain more sanguine. “The divergence between the domestic and imported components of inflation helps to illustrate the big concerns that the RBNZ is trying to balance,”said Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp.

“Inflation is coming down. That will be important for stabilizing inflation expectations and means that the RBNZ will feel more comfortable keeping the OCR on hold for now.”

Westpac believes the CPI print will keep the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on hold through 2024 because inflation is “still uncomfortably high”.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Kiwi Inflation Eases, But Slowly, So Rates Will Remain Higher For Longer!

00:00 / 00:08:39

Its Our Australia Day Special: With Tarric Brooker!

Another dose of charts and common sense from Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest data and explore the implications for Australians on Australia Day. Houses and Holes, mate, Houses and Holes!

See the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-january-2024

And Tarric’s article on the Houthi Strikes, The Closure Of The Gate Of Grief And The Sea Of Economic Consequences https://avidcom.substack.com/p/houthi-strikes-the-closure-of-the

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Our Australia Day Special: With Tarric Brooker!

00:00 / 01:17:00

Stage 3 Tax Revamp: A Speck In The Ocean?

Lots of noise this week about the revamped stage 3 tax cuts. It’s worth remembering first that 2 in five Australians pay no tax because they do not earn enough, so this is change is certainly not going to impact every household.

Anthony Albanese had repeatedly committed to delivering stage 3 as legislated by the Coalition – but told the National Press Club on Thursday, “When economic circumstances change, the right thing to do is change your economic policy. That’s what we are doing.”

At one level of course this is another broken promise – just like the superannuation tax cap which came in last year. Presumable the calculus is more people will benefit than not, and it’s a long time to the next election, so people will forget. We will see.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Stage 3 Tax Revamp: A Speck In The Ocean?

00:00 / 00:13:25

Put Interest Rates Up, And Reform Taxes Now!

The IMF just dropped a bombshell on Australia, saying that Interest rates should be hiked even higher and the Australian governments should slash spending to avoid stoking inflation. And proper tax reform was essential as an optimal tax package for growth and equity should rely more on the GST, take pressure off personal income tax paid by workers and crack down on capital gains tax breaks.

Now, let me say the IMF has a particular free-market neo-liberal western economic spin, but their comments are pretty damming and need to be taken seriously. Yet of course the Australian polies were quick to claim the IMF somehow endorsed their current policy settings – what – read the report Albo!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Put Interest Rates Up, And Reform Taxes Now!

00:00 / 00:08:43

Stupid Promises Collide With Reality As Housing Targets Won’t Be Met!

The NSW government has already announced plans last month to build more than 200,000 homes and focus on higher density living by building up, not out. But now NSW Premier Chris Minns says the state will not meet its housing target, but is doing its best to boost supply.

The plan includes 138,000 new homes at rezoned sites in 31 suburbs, and 47,800 homes near eight major transport hubs, with the latter to be completed over the next 15 years.

Those suburbs include Bankstown, Bays West, Bella Vista, Crows Nest, Homebush, Hornsby, Kellyville and Macquarie Park.

The government will offer developers in those zones a fast-tracked approvals process, called a state significant development, to ensure apartments are built quickly.

It will be offered to developments over $60 million, and construction must start within two years of approval.

The government also intends to relocate Rosehill Racecourse and replace it with 25,000 homes as part of the plan.

But Housing industry insiders say they are not surprised by the NSW premier’s admission that the state will not meet its housing targets agreed to just last year.

The target, which was set out by the federal government in August, would see an average of 75,000 new dwellings a year over the next five years. It is part of a broader plan to build 1.2 million homes across Australia during that period.

Premier Chris Minns said the government would fall short of the goal but was working on building as many houses and units as possible to alleviate housing shortages and skyrocketing costs.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Stupid Promises Collide With Reality As Housing Targets Won’t Be Met!

00:00 / 00:08:46