Another dose of reality from our property insider Edwin Almeida. What political games are being played at the moment, and how is this influencing markets, which according to some are taking off again. Or does it depend on where you look and who is buying. How big is the housing crises now? Will any of the “solutions” being discussed really assist?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock was back in front of the bright lights, appearing at a House Economics Committee Hearing on Friday.
I have selected the edited highlights in this show, from the 3 hours of questions, and have included some of her statements. While she didn’t add a whole lot more to what she said at Tuesday’s press conference, she emphasised two points that should give pause to those expecting multiple rate cuts this calendar year.
The first was in response to a question on inflation expectations: by the time inflation gets back to the midpoint of the target band of 2 per cent to 3 per cent, as required by the RBA’s new mandate – which occurs some time beyond the middle of 2026 on the RBA’s latest forecasts – inflation will have been outside the target range for four years, which is right on the edge of what the RBA will tolerate.
The second was on productivity.
But she also touched on the risks in the forecasts, the impact of the Bank of Mum and Dad, and other distributional impact questions across households. Frankly, I found this unconvincing. So the think the RBA has much to do to gain a better set of insights into the current state of play!..
Let me know what you think in the comments!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Which Households Are Hurting The Most - According To The RBA?
Interesting to see the momentum now turning to discussion of whether the Government intends to tackle negative gearing having U-turned on the tax cuts.
As The Conversation put it, there are two things the prime minister needs to get into his head about tax. One is that saying he won’t make any further changes no longer works. The other is that negative gearing doesn’t do much to get people into homes.
Australia’s Treasury has begun publishing estimates of the cost of the present unfocused system of negative gearing. Its latest, released last week, puts the cost at $2.7 billion per year, to which should probably be added a chunk of the $19 billion per year lost as a result of the capital gains concession.
Albanese is normally cautious. But as he is showing us right now with his rejigged Stage 3 tax cuts, there are times when he is not. If he really wants to throw everything he has got at building more homes, he knows what to do.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Another week shoots past, so Edwin is back for another property update. The chaos continues with talk of “pre-war”, home price rises, and more Government support for property. What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.
Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
An important discussion with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party, about democracy, the role of the Reserve Bank, and use of cash, as some are now calling for a significant change in the balance of power.
Who will win? Will un-elected technocrats dictate the future direction of the country, or will electable politicians step up and weald their accountable power?
This is a battle for the future.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest trends in population, home prices and productivity with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith writes as the Unconventional Economist. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
Original live stream and chat here: https://youtube.com/live/eclazIUDbz8
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida as we look at the low listings, and rentals, and the reasons why markets are not behaving as some (who should know better) said they would.
Edwin referred to this post: https://www.tiktok.com/@shallowchal/video/7326805682114645255
We also look at trends in Western Australia, as well as our normal East Coast analysis.
Things, as they say are getting interesting…
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The Australian’s Judith Sloan recently debunked KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne’s spurious claim that a “short-sighted”, “kneejerk” cut to immigration would damage productivity and the economy.
So what are the latest figures telling us?
In the Financial Year 2022-23 we saw a record high net overseas migration of 518,000, while the federal government’s latest forecast is for a fall to around 375,000 which by the way would still be the second-highest annual read on record.
Such high volumes are driven in part by the student influx post pandemic.
Ahead, CBA expects a slowdown rate of population growth. “Using net overseas arrivals data for certain visa types till December 2023 suggest net overseas migration for 2023 was ~370k, roughly in line with government estimates for FY24″…
Now while the total number might be down, because the student element is the one moderating and most sensitive to rental demand, it might just help to cool rental growth a little – it is still way too high… many of those coming into the country still are cashed up and ready to buy property. So net, net given the limited supply of new property, due to falling building approvals, this will probably not help to ease undersupply.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
On Wednesday Statistics New Zealand released consumer price index (CPI) data for the December quarter. The data showed that New Zealand inflation slowed in the final three months of 2023, despite indicators of domestic price pressures remained stubbornly strong, which came in below the Reserve Bank’s expectations. As a result, it appears that policymakers are likely to hold until there’s a clearer picture of the economy.
“While this is the smallest annual rise in the CPI in over two years, it remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1 to 3 percent,” consumers prices senior manager Nicola Growden said.
The OCR currently stands at 5.5%. While Investors are betting the RBNZ will start cutting the Official Cash Rate in the second quarter and will lower the benchmark to 4.75% by year’s end. But as I discussed recently, policymakers remained concerned about sticky core prices and most economists expect the RBNZ will delay a rate cut until the second half of 2024. In November, the central bank projected that inflation would drop below 3% in the third quarter of this year.
“Inflation continues to move in the right direction,” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank in Auckland. “The current state of play and the outlook should be sufficient to see the RBNZ pivot away from rate hikes. Rate cuts are not too far away.”
However, others remain more sanguine. “The divergence between the domestic and imported components of inflation helps to illustrate the big concerns that the RBNZ is trying to balance,”said Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp.
“Inflation is coming down. That will be important for stabilizing inflation expectations and means that the RBNZ will feel more comfortable keeping the OCR on hold for now.”
Westpac believes the CPI print will keep the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on hold through 2024 because inflation is “still uncomfortably high”.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Kiwi Inflation Eases, But Slowly, So Rates Will Remain Higher For Longer!
Another dose of charts and common sense from Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest data and explore the implications for Australians on Australia Day. Houses and Holes, mate, Houses and Holes!
See the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-january-2024
And Tarric’s article on the Houthi Strikes, The Closure Of The Gate Of Grief And The Sea Of Economic Consequences https://avidcom.substack.com/p/houthi-strikes-the-closure-of-the
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Our Australia Day Special: With Tarric Brooker!
