Lots of noise this week about the revamped stage 3 tax cuts. It’s worth remembering first that 2 in five Australians pay no tax because they do not earn enough, so this is change is certainly not going to impact every household.
Anthony Albanese had repeatedly committed to delivering stage 3 as legislated by the Coalition – but told the National Press Club on Thursday, “When economic circumstances change, the right thing to do is change your economic policy. That’s what we are doing.”
At one level of course this is another broken promise – just like the superannuation tax cap which came in last year. Presumable the calculus is more people will benefit than not, and it’s a long time to the next election, so people will forget. We will see.
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The IMF just dropped a bombshell on Australia, saying that Interest rates should be hiked even higher and the Australian governments should slash spending to avoid stoking inflation. And proper tax reform was essential as an optimal tax package for growth and equity should rely more on the GST, take pressure off personal income tax paid by workers and crack down on capital gains tax breaks.
Now, let me say the IMF has a particular free-market neo-liberal western economic spin, but their comments are pretty damming and need to be taken seriously. Yet of course the Australian polies were quick to claim the IMF somehow endorsed their current policy settings – what – read the report Albo!
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The NSW government has already announced plans last month to build more than 200,000 homes and focus on higher density living by building up, not out. But now NSW Premier Chris Minns says the state will not meet its housing target, but is doing its best to boost supply.
The plan includes 138,000 new homes at rezoned sites in 31 suburbs, and 47,800 homes near eight major transport hubs, with the latter to be completed over the next 15 years.
Those suburbs include Bankstown, Bays West, Bella Vista, Crows Nest, Homebush, Hornsby, Kellyville and Macquarie Park.
The government will offer developers in those zones a fast-tracked approvals process, called a state significant development, to ensure apartments are built quickly.
It will be offered to developments over $60 million, and construction must start within two years of approval.
The government also intends to relocate Rosehill Racecourse and replace it with 25,000 homes as part of the plan.
But Housing industry insiders say they are not surprised by the NSW premier’s admission that the state will not meet its housing targets agreed to just last year.
The target, which was set out by the federal government in August, would see an average of 75,000 new dwellings a year over the next five years. It is part of a broader plan to build 1.2 million homes across Australia during that period.
Premier Chris Minns said the government would fall short of the goal but was working on building as many houses and units as possible to alleviate housing shortages and skyrocketing costs.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Stupid Promises Collide With Reality As Housing Targets Won’t Be Met!
My first Friday chat with Tarric Brooker, Journalist and Chart-Meister.
Will recent developments force a replay of the recent inflation crisis and keep rates higher for longer. If so, what are the potential implications politically and economically?
His charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-january-2024
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
It’s All Happening - Again! With Tarric Brooker...
Bloomberg reported yesterday that the US has become the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas for the first time, with 2023 shipments overtaking leading suppliers Australia and Qatar.
The US exported 91.2 million metric tons of LNG in 2023, a record for the country, according to data through Dec. 31 compiled by Bloomberg. The expanded output was due to last year’s restart of Freeport LNG in Texas, which had been shuttered for months following a June 2022 fire and explosion. Qatar, the top LNG supplier in 2022, saw its volumes shrink for the first time since at least 2016, with a 1.9% decline dropping the nation into third spot for shipments of the super-chilled fuel. Australia ranked second, with exports that were little changed from 2022.
Unlike East Coast Australia, the US has a domestic gas reservation scheme in place, which has mostly succeeded in keeping domestic gas prices low.
And the mooted A$80 Billion Deal between Woodside Energy and Santos could also put more upward pressure on Australian domestic gas prices.
“Both Santos and Woodside are material domestic gas producers, which may create market concentration concerns,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay said in a note.
It makes no sense to give any member of the gas export cartel – Origin, Woodside, Santos, EXXON or Shell – greater control of gas import volumes. Remember East Coast Electricity prices are driven by the marginal cost of LNG.
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Well, the numbers are now in so today I am going to review the performance of our channel over the last year, and specifically highlight the top 10 most watched shows.
I want to thank you for being part of the DFA community, watching our shows, and supporting us by subscribing, liking the shows, and sharing them widely. Its greatly appreciated and I want to celebrate the momentum we created together. Especially around some of our campaigns, most notably addressing the issue of bank branch closures and the need to be able to access cash.
None of these top ten were my live shows, which generally run each Tuesday evening. Generally live events tend to do less well on YT compared with recorded shows. But the great positive of live is the audience participation, which is key to building and nourishing the community. So a quick word of thanks, to all those who turn out regularly to support our live events.
And if you stand back, its clear that housing related shows rate well, as do the regular chats with Tarric and his slides, and some of the more philosophical shows such as Down the Rabbit Hole and the BRICS discussion, also did well.
If you have specific subjects you would like me to cover, or guest suggestions, drop them in the chat!
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More from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we make our predictions for 2024 and discuss the latest property trends.
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And her story is also told on the video I made, incorporating A Current Affair footage back in 2021.
In memory of her we continue to run Asbestos Awareness Australia, a charity Gill launched before her death, to help to raise awareness in the community of the scourge of asbestos, which still remains in about one home in three.
It kills several thousand people each year and around 800 of which are from mesothelioma in Australia. In 2022, it is estimated that there were 761 deaths from mesothelioma in Australia.
So, the legacy of Gills death is our commitment to continue to raise awareness of this pernicious product, continue to lobby Government for better reforms – Gill published a series of research papers on just this point – available from the Asbestos Awareness Australia web site, and the Quest is to ensure that ordinary Australians are better aware of the risks stemming from Asbestos.
And while its good to know that engineered stone, which has caused problems for those working in that industry is to be banned, Asbestos is the elephant in the room still killing thousands each year, and it’s in one third of homes across the country. And no, it is not just multiple exposures, one exposure to a few fibres is sufficient, and even undisturbed asbestos continues to deteriorate over time, so there is no such thing as safe asbestos if its left in situ. And it can take years for the disease to show.
Think Asbestos!
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This is an edit of a live discussion with Dr Cameron K. Murray, an independent economist who publishes at Fresh Economic Thinking https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/. We discussed housing policy and economics in general.
Here is the link to Cameron’s new book, out February 27th 2024 https://www.amazon.com.au/Great-Housing-Hijack-keeping-Australia/dp/176147085X
He recently republished his book from 2017 Game of Mates: How favours bleed the nation as Rigged “How Networks Of Powerful Mates Rip Off Everyday Australians”.
This book will open your eyes to how Australia really works. It’s not good news, but you need to know it.’ – Ross Gittins
‘You’ll be shocked at how far the Mates have their hand in your pocket.’ – Nicholas Gruen
Australia has become one of the most unequal societies in the Western world, when just a generation ago it was one of the most equal. This is the story of how networks of Mates have come to dominate business and government, robbing ordinary Australians.
Every hour you work, thirty minutes of it goes to line the Mates’ pockets rather than your own. Mates in big corporations, industry groups, government departments, the halls of parliament and the media skew the system to suit each other. Corporations dodge taxes, so you pay more. You pay more for your house and higher interest rates on your mortgage, more for your medicines and transport, and more for your children’s education and insurance, because the Mates take a cut.
Rigged uncovers the pattern of political favours, grey gifts and information-sharing that has been allowed to build up over two decades. Drawing on extensive economic research, it exposes the Game of Mates as nothing less than cronyism on a grand scale across Australia and how we have fallen behind other countries in combating it.
A final 2023 chat with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party. We look at the RBA’s latest outing on cash usage, the Senate review of the RBA’s independence bill, and the formation of a National Investment entity.
On 7 December 2023, the Senate referred the Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 [Provisions] to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 21 March 2024.
The critical issue is that the Treasurer is walking back Government’s power to intervene with RBA decisions if they do not agree. This power was put into the constitution years ago but has never been used.
Without it, the Technocrats will be able to take over, and follow the lead of the Bank For International settlements, to the potential disadvantage of ordinary Australians and businesses.
Make a submission to make the case for this power to be retained! The closing date for submissions to this inquiry is 2 February 2024.
