Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and co-founder of Macrobusiness. Leith has been leading the charge in highlighting how high migration is killing the property market. Tonight we look at the latest economic trends, and also will compare New Zealand with Australia.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Time to act to save Australia from the Central Bankers’ Power grab. I discuss the impending legislation which would disable Parliament’s power to intervene on what the RBA does; with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.
We need to register our opposition to the bill which is being snuck in via the back-door of cross-party consensus. The very future of Australia as a democratic country is at stake. Call and email now!
Breaking news! Treasurer Jim Chalmers is preparing to introduce a bill to implement the RBA Review recommendations, including removing democratic accountability over the Reserve Bank, in two weeks – the last week of November.
Don’t let the major parties do a back-room deal to wave this bill through!
Help fight to protect the most important democratic protection in Australian law by calling and emailing three people immediately:
Tell them they have no right to repeal Section 11 of the RBA Act, which would give up the power of democratic accountability over the RBA and the banking system that political giants in history like John Curtin and Ben Chifley fought so hard to establish.
Robbie’s earlier video : https://youtu.be/EA7FhBZxfuM
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Anther Friday chat with Tarric Brooker. We look at the latest charts and parse out what is going on.
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-3rd-november-2023
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/australia-vs-the-big-short-the-battle
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Queensland Senator Rennick, and discussed a range of important issues including the accountability and independence of the RBA, regional banking and the digital divide, the digital content bill, and finally, and importantly the role and effectiveness of democracy.
Gerard Rennick is an Australian politician who has been a Senator for Queensland since July 2019. He is a member of the Liberal National Party of Queensland and sits with the Liberal Party in federal parliament.
On 8 July 2023 at the LNP Annual Convention in Brisbane, Rennick lost preselection for the third position on the LNP’s senate ticket for the next federal election, after being narrowly defeated by Stuart Fraser, the party’s treasurer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerard_Rennick
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
On Melbourne Cup day we will get the next RBA cash rate decision. Michelle Bullocks testimony before the Senate this week was pretty vague – waiting for data, will update forecasts etc.
But as Christopher Joye writes in the AFR, following the material upside surprise to inflation in the September quarter, almost all economists and investors agree that the Reserve Bank of Australia should lift interest rates in November.
But participants worry that a concerted campaign to politically compromise Australia’s central bank may result in the RBA remarkably choosing not to seek to combat its existential inflation crisis.
This would be the latest in a chapter of accidents, with the RBA cutting rates too low, and stoking the economy via the Term Funding Facility, and Quantitative Easing. Their yield control attempts went wrong, and then they held rates way to low, promising no hike for years. And their forecasting is a disaster.
This is a central bank with a 4.1 per cent cash rate that is just a smidge above what it assesses to be the neutral rate of 3.8 per cent. And that is a cash rate that is 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points below peer rates in the US, Britain, Canada and New Zealand.
Even the RBA’s outgoing assistant governor Luci Ellis, who is now chief economist at Westpac, called a “hike” only days after she predicted that inflation would not be robust enough to warrant one.
In sum, we know the RBA should hike in November. Whether it actually does or not appears to now be a question of its ability to resist political interference.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Research Director from The Australian Citizens Party, Robbie Barwick as we look at the contemporary issues surrounding the battle to keep cash in the economy, branch closures, the current financial settings, and the broader political and economic background.
The imperative for change has rarely been stronger, and we literally stand on the brink….
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we discuss the migration question, granny flats, risks from above 4 story high-rise, and the rental crisis. Plus we look at the latest from the WeeChat universe.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
There is a critical issue now on the table, and it relates to what the right level of migration should be. In recent times, the taps have been open more than ever before, and there are significant consequences for households, and housing affordability. Some are now calling for a significant cut in migration, others are celebrating the potential for more home prices rises, as demand outstrips supply across the country.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another Friday chat with Tarric Brooker, complete with charts on the housing market. We look at what is really driving the disequilibrium in the sector, and what the consequences are for people trying to access the market.
You can follow the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-20th-october-2023
And read Tarric’s article on housing here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/in-australia-housing-is-the-economy
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
One stunning chart which I keep coming back to is the change in income and home prices overtime. It shows simply that housing is becoming more and more unaffordable. We also know that more households have bigger mortgages and so are heavily exposed to higher rates, and that many will still have mortgages well into retirement. Our debt ratios are some of the most extreme across the world, as I have been reporting for years. Great for banks, as they reap interest payments, bad for society. In fact, I believe we are at the point where the drawbridge is being pulled up making it harder than ever to get on to the property ladder or stay there.
Few policies are more harmful to young Australians seeking a place to live than forcing them to compete for housing with hundreds of thousands of new migrants each year.
Future Australians will have to make do with cramped shoebox homes owned by corporations and landlords.
Essentially, the property ownership drawbridge is being progressively raised – but this is by design, not accident. I hope post the voice, Albo and Co will get serious about correcting their mistakes, but frankly I am not holding my breath.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
