Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
A belated edition of our Monday evening rant with Edwin Almeida, our property insider. This week we explore the political shenanigans & follies, the latest numbers and some tips on beating the auction.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
In the UK, Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) is the highest we have seen since comparable records began in 2001. The Office for National statistics said In May to July 2023, annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%, the same as the previous three-month period and the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.
Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.5% in May to July 2023; this total growth rate is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. But we can see workers are chasing real wages growth, as inflation eases, just a little with annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for total pay up for the year by 1.2% and for regular pay a year on year rise of 0.6%.
In Australia, The Fair Work Commission released their latest data on Monday which revealed that average pay rises in new collective agreements in Australia have soared to a high of 4.7 per cent, closing in on inflation and putting pressure on wage forecasts. The increase is the highest average recorded since the commission’s data series began in mid-2022, surpassing previous highs of 4.4 per cent and is based on 174 deals lodged from August 12 to August 25, extended to 63,553 employees.
But with inflation at 6% on the quarter to June 2023, and the monthly series at 4.9%, on average workers are still going backwards in terms of real take home pay after inflation.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I have discussed before the spate of announcables from the current Government – events and releases which give the impression of taking bold actions which grab headlines, but which in reality signifies very little at all. Housing was a standout example, but now we have another, the jobs plan.
Which in fact was a scene resembling The Hollowmen. It took 260-pages and six cabinet ministers to announce the jobs plan, and according to Jim Chalmers he wants to reduce the non-inflationary jobless rate so 2.8 million people who are not working, or wanting to work more hours, can bolster the labour market and improve their wellbeing.
So, the federal government will put “full employment” at the heart of Australia’s policy frameworks and institutions, to drive down structural unemployment over time and keep unemployment as low as possible. And they say the benefits of a strong labour market are not equally shared.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
An important debrief on the past weeks Senate Inquiry into Regional Branch closures, use of cash and other banking issues, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party.
Senate replay here: https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen/ParlView/video/1733879
The power of democracy at work!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of our recent live show, as I discuss the latest economic and housing news with Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, Leith van Onselen, who is also the co-founder of Macrobusiness.
We do a deep dive on the Population Ponzi and why housing shortages are likely to remain with us for ever. Its by design.
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Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party and I discuss the latest moves in the battle to retain cash in society ahead of the next Senate hearings which are scheduled for next week. The battle is reaching a head, and there is everything to play for, not least as Adrian Orr put it recently, its a question of social cohesion!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another deep discussion, plus slides with journalist Tarric Brooker.
Thanks to all those who posed us questions (we did not get through them all, but will keep then for our next show…)
Who is the economy for – and what does the data tell us? The charts are at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-15th-september-2023 if you want to follow along.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Almost one in three Australians are struggling to make ends meet, as cost-of-living pressures push more people to renegotiate bills, cut back on groceries and access their superannuation early. And one in five hit up friends or family as times tighten.
About 30 per cent of Australian adults find it difficult or very difficult to get by on their current income, according to a quarterly poll by the Australian National University.
Borrowers have been hit with 12 interest rate rises since May 2022 as the RBA tries to get on top of the most acute inflation outbreak in decades.
Financial stress is on the rise, with two-fifths of renters finding it difficult or very difficult to get by on present income amid a nationwide surge in rents.
But the biggest increase in stress over the past year was among people with a mortgage, who have borne the brunt of the fastest interest rate tightening cycle in a generation. About three in 10 borrowers are finding it tough.
None of this should be a surprise to followers of this channel, as I have been reporting the steady rise in cash flow stress in recent times, to new highs. My latest data to end August will be out in the next few days, and the trends continue to deteriorate.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida as we look at the idea of building up, not out, prefabricated housing, poor quality rental property, and the mythology of property listings. And at the end, a real horror show!
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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Another deep dive into the data with Journalist Tarric Brooker as we explore the recent events in China, the housing story (and political announceables), the mortgage cliff (or not) and lots more.
Slides are available here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-18th-august-2023
Tarric’s article which we mention is here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/aussie-fixed-rate-mortgage-cliff
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
