Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
Continuing my occasional series with George, where we go deep into tin-foil hat territory, we chat about democracy, and power, and how corporations interact with Governments and international non-governmental organisations, like the UN and WEF, and how this impinges on our lives.
Who are politicians working for really?
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When I landed in Australia in 1995, I was immediately struck by the concept of a “fair-go” being right at the heart of the Australian psyche. But more recently it appeared to me that this was becoming something of a myth, as inequality and poverty started to expand and impinge on people who previously were able to get on, buy and house, and enjoy the Australian dream.
The Productivity Commission just released a research paper titled “Fairly equal? Economic mobility in Australia” and make the point that Inequality is a serious concern when people at the bottom of the income distribution cannot meet their basic needs or where they experience the stress of economic insecurity. And inequality is a serious concern when it limits people’s future opportunities. The countries with the highest inequality are also the countries with the lowest intergenerational mobility, with children from poor families more likely to be poor themselves.
https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/fairly-equal-mobility/fairly-equal-mobility.pdf
The truth is the fair-go ideal is dissipating, and people are becoming less mobile economically speaking. Those with wealth in the family will enjoy the benefits, but a larger proportion of people are stuck in a poverty rut, and have few ways to escape. Bye-Bye Fair Go Australia.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, while covering the main points in commodities and crypto along the way.
This past week has been a doozy, with US markets still clawing higher on increased rate cut expectations, as the latest employment data and adjustments posed some important questions alongside a weakening the dollar, while in the UK the incoming Labour Government won with a whopping seat majority despite voters really voting against the Tories rather than for Starmer.
In France, horse trading ahead of Sundays second pole could mean the Right do not get the prize they were expecting, while Oil was firmer across the week on fears of middle east conflicts and in Crypto, Bitcoin has dropped more than 20% from recent highs.
Wall Street stock indexes closed firmer on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and benchmark S&P 500 hitting record highs.
All up, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.17%, to close at 39,375.87. The S&P 500 gained 0.54%, at 5,567.19 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.90%, to 18,352.76. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.95%, the Nasdaq rose 3.5% pct, and the Dow climbed 0.66%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index is down 0.95% for the week and the S&P500 equal weight was parallel to its 2022 high, showing the narrowness of the support for the all time highs on the S&P500.
French financial markets have come under selling pressure since President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election last month, with concerns that a far-right win could add to worries over fiscal sustainability. But there is also nervousness about what will happen if there is no clear winner in Sunday’s second round of voting. Fresh polls showed the far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies were still in the lead but looked to fall short of getting an outright majority.
The UK national election on Thursday propelled the Labour Party to a sweeping victory, and Labour leader Keir Starmer became the next Prime Minister. In the six-week election campaign,
The latest update indicates that Labour has won 411 seats, and the Conservatives have secured 121 seats. This gives Labour a massive majority in the House of Commons. One seat has not yet declared a winner.
Actually, though this was a vote against the Tories, while the share of the vote Labour got hardly moved, and was in fact lower than in recent elections, votes went to the right in the form of Reform, or to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and other parties – and Labour was unseated in a couple of spots as a result of this, and in the light of their stance on Gaza.
As Sky put it, A thumping majority without a thumping share of the vote’. Chief Pole analyst John Curtice said “Actually, but for the rise of the Labour Party in Scotland… we would be reporting that basically Labours vote has not changed from what it was in 2019”. Roughly one third of the votes and two thirds of seats shows the problem with the first past the post system, with turnout (which is not compulsory) below 60%. Labour is pretty centralist and conservative.
Starmer did not win because Britain was hankering for a social-democratic government. He did not win because his Albanese-style small-target strategy appealed to voters. He won merely because he wasn’t the government. Starmer won because Labour was not the Tories. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government was stale, tired, divided, regicidal and largely directionless, sapped by eight years of post-Brexit chaos.
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We are back for another Friday chat with independent journalist Tarric Brooker, as we explore the latest data and charts and try to make sense of what is playing out politically and economically at the moment.
Can things only get better?
Tarric’s charts are here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-28th-june-2024
Tarric’s new website and paywall is here: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/australias-construction-sector-an
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s Rant we look at forecasts for future property prices (and who makes them), some of the recent changes in the dynamics of property listings, and a warning for those considering a new kitchen. We also consider the latest stats on foreign property transactions.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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High migration is putting pressure on home prices and rents, and lifting the demand for more infrastructure, and diluting the GDP per capital (share of wealth generated in the country across an ever-increasing population, 84% of which growth came from migration. So this is a big political hot potato.
Many are calling for a cut in migration to fall to a level consistent with the current capacity to build new homes, though of course the corporate and university sectors want ever more people in the country to keep wages low, and boost the number of households to sell things to, while the tax take rises, which is why The Federal Treasury want more people too.
There has been some lip service to attempt to streamline and better target Australia’s immigration system, though mainly focussing on a reduction in student numbers. But now, Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil says regional communities should benefit more from overseas arrivals, including through changes to cumbersome occupation lists and settlement rules.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and co-founder of MacroBusiness.
In this show we discussed the recent developments in the housing market, and how economics is playing into the current broken system. Governments are not being transparent about their motives, or their continued intervention into the market.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
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In this weeks show Edwin and I look at the latest in political interventions to “help” the property market, consider the impact of more Chinese money coming into Australian property, and the impact of the Bank Of Mum and Dad. Plus, our normal updates on listings, and Edwin’s latest Tip Of The Week.
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https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
It’s raining “announcables” at the moment, with interesting developments this past week on the housing and finance front as city, state and federal Governments continue to poke at the broken system. Schemes include, government buying off the plan to give construction firms a leg up, cheap housing for essential workers, changes to lending rules, higher council rates for investors, and further crackdowns on airB&B.
While these may sound attractive from a media positioning perspective, they will hardly move the dial on the broken housing system in Australia. It’s a case of fiddling while Rome burns.
In fact, for more on the broken system, join me on my live show next Tuesday evening at 8pm Sydney, when I will be joined by Leith Van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth as we discuss “The Great Housing Poker Game”.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of live discussion, with Professor Steve Keen.
Steve Keen is an Australian economist and author, highly critical of neoclassical economics as inconsistent, unscientific, and empirically unsupported. Mainstream economist have in effect damaged society and the planet because of what they don’t know!. There are better ways to think about what’s going on. His latest book The New Economics.
https://profstevekeen.substack.com
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