Politics – Page 7 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

No Homes For You: The Structural Desolation Of Dwelling Approval Falls!

Yesterday the ABS released the latest data on dwellings approved and they fell 0.3 per cent in April, after a 2.7 per cent rise in March, according to the seasonally adjusted data after just 13,078 new homes were signed off for construction.

Looing at the mix, Approvals for private houses fell 1.6 per cent. While approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses also fell 1.1 per cent in April in seasonally adjusted terms.

In the year to April, just 163,493 new dwelling permits were issued, a level which has been broadly consistent since December as surging home building costs and elevated interest rates batter construction activity. The annual result was vastly outpaced by population growth over the same period, which soared by 626,871 mostly due to surging net migration levels. From July 1, Labor is targeting the construction of 1.2 million well-located homes over five years, requiring a 12 month rolling average of 240,000 new homes.

Aprils figure is well short of the 20,000 homes that need to be constructed each month if the country is to hit the federal government’s target of building 1.2 million new homes in the space of five years, starting in July.

So the chronic housing supply issue will remain a problem and put upward pressure on home prices and rents, leading to higher inflation, and so higher interest rates for longer.

So unless things change, the gap between the supply of dwellings and meeting demand will continue to grow, driving home prices and rents higher, and pushing inflation higher which leads to higher interest rates and mortgage costs.

Step one should be to trim migration meaningfully back to bring the supply and demand back into better balance, remembering that on capita we are still currently building MORE dwellings than other western countries, as I discussed with Tarric Brooker recently. There is a strategic path to tackle the issues we face, but it seems to be politically impossible so more people will struggle to find a place to live – something which should be a basic human right, and a priority for Government.

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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

No Homes For You: The Structural Desolation Of Dwelling Approval Falls!

00:00 / 00:09:58

Gaslighting By The Gas Producers Exposed As Australians Pay!

Australia is paying way too much for its home-grown gas, as the over-exporting of gas has driven East Coast gas prices 400% higher than historical average prices leading to higher inflation and a stalled energy transition. This is a huge impost on living standards via direct bill shocks and spills over to energy-intensive manufacturing, which includes building materials, making the housing crisis even worse.

Yet there’s more as The Australia Institute, an independent public policy think tank based in Canberra, just published a report titled Australia’s great gas giveaway – How Australia gives gas to multinational corporations for free.

In addition to exposing Australians to the full international price of gas (yes gas produced in Australia and shipped off shore by huge international companies) due to stupid Government policy, the Institute says that Australian governments charge no royalties on 56% of the gas that is exported from Australia. Over the last four years, multinational companies made $149 billion exporting gas they got for free.

If royalties had been charged on this gas, at least $13.3 billion in revenue could have been raised.

Australia exports LNG from 10 installations. Six of these projects—four of the five in Western Australia and both in the Northern Territory—pay no state or federal royalties. Australia exports 56% of its gas through these facilities.

Sure, the industry is subject to taxes – which are distinct from royalties – including income tax and the petroleum resource rent tax levied on profits. But Institute said the oil and gas companies should be paying royalties as well as taxes on profits and a failure to do so consistently meant Australians were missing out on a fair return on their resources.

ACT Senator David Pocock said the gas industry was taking part in “state-sanctioned daylight robbery”. “We are seeing a betrayal of Australians and our future by the major parties. We are seeing state capture by the gas industry,” he said. “They are absolute leeches on this country and this has to end.”

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Gaslighting By The Gas Producers Exposed As Australians Pay!

00:00 / 00:08:57

Bankers Lose Over Bank Branch Closures: But Now The Political Games Begin!

The Senate published their Report into Regional Bank Branch Closures late last Friday.

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Rural_and_Regional_Affairs_and_Transport/BankClosures/Report

I will be discussing this on my live YouTube show on Tuesday with Robbie Barwick. https://youtube.com/live/NJnaqhARu90

But already, the award winning Journalist Dale Webster over at the Regional has written an excellent article:

https://www.theregional.com.au/post/banks-blow-their-chance-to-self-regulate-by-betraying-trust

Over the 13 hearings held across Australia and in more than 600 written submissions the only defence of the banks’ actions came from the banks themselves, but when their executives appeared to give evidence, all they managed to do was convince the senators of just how out of touch they were with their customer heartland.

This arrogance was perfectly summed up by expert witness Andy Schmulow, Associate Professor of Law from the University of Wollongong.

“When it comes to closing branches, Australia is a free for all in which banks are entirely unconstrained: there is no degree to which they are held to account in discharging their obligations to communities which have supported them for generations. This, it is respectfully submitted, is disgraceful and indefensible,” Dr Schmulow said.

The senators agreed. On Friday they handed down an historic report with eight bold recommendations.

But now lets see the actions to protect regional communities and access to cash. I want to see real action now, not just political games, so I will be watching closely.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Bankers Lose Over Bank Branch Closures: But Now The Political Games Begin!

00:00 / 00:06:04

Peddling The Housing Supply Myth: Again…

Housing is in crisis in Australia, its too expensive and relative to population there is not enough of it. As I discuss with independent Journalist Tarric Brooker last week, though shockingly, we have built more homes per 100,000 people than Canada, The US and the UK. In other words, we have a greater proportion of our economy dedicated already to housing construction, with perhaps 1.35 million people working in the sector. And we also know completion times are blowing out now, thanks to poor supply chains, lack of available labour, and poor-quality construction. In NSW half of high-rise projects have severe defects.

But the Government wants to push the supply-side levers some more, as exemplified in their Attachment to the budget papers: Statement 4, Meeting Australia’s Housing Challenge from the Treasury.

It starts out “Australia has a housing shortage. There are not enough homes being built in the right areas to meet the needs of our communities. This statement focuses on the reasons for the current undersupply of housing, how it affects affordability, and the changes required to more quickly unlock supply to meet the housing needs of all Australians. It also sets out how the Government’s policy responds to these drivers of undersupply”.

This undersupply they say accounts for the increases in rents, mortgage repayments and house prices.

Talk of course is cheap, but will this translate into real actions? And what about the elephant in the room because of course, the focus should be to curtail migration from is very high current levels, and bring demand back closer to long term averages, and over the budget period both sides of politics have to a degree been talking about this, though, as I discussed in my recent show The Migration Question Amplified; But Not Tackled… By Anyone!, it’s a battle of announcables, with numbers being banded about.

But my take is that neither side of politics are really wanting to take this on seriously, despite the direct link to higher inflation. The net result will be higher inflation for longer, requiring higher interest rates than otherwise needed.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Peddling The Housing Supply Myth: Again…

00:00 / 00:14:25

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In this weeks Rant Edwin and I discuss the fallout from the budget, the latest developments in non-approved extensions, and trends from the WeChat Chatters and Silent Tigers as Australian property is still used to launder money.

You can also join Edwin and I for a live show on Tuesday 21st May at 8pm Sydney as we discuss how to prepare your property for sale. You can ask a question live: https://youtu.be/38o1E_69o3c

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:09:22

Digital Tyranny Another Step Closer As Digital ID Bill Is Passed!

This past week, while we were distracted with the budget, our controlled digital future came one step nearer, as the Australian Federal Governments Digital ID Bill sailed through Parliament last week with the support of the crossbench, having been previously passed in the Senate.

The passing into law of this bill may at a superficial level sound sensible, given that as more Australians are increasingly transacting online, our identities are vulnerable in new ways. So the Digital ID is to provide “secure” access system for other services that we can have confidence and trust in; the Government says.

But as I discussed in my previous show from the 29th March, Digital Tyranny Is One Step Closer! https://youtu.be/kVVmG_7ddWg I am reminded of the parable of the frog, who slowly gets cooked to death, in a pot as the temperature rises – the same in true for Australians, as civil liberties such as the use of cash, are removed, even as the digital architecture for future control gets put in place. You can see parallels elsewhere round the world and aligned with the agenda of several high profile non-elected bodies like the World Economic Forum – of “you will own nothing and be happy” fame.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Digital Tyranny Another Step Closer As Digital ID Bill Is Passed!

00:00 / 00:11:27

The Migration Question Amplified; But Not Tackled… By Anyone!

Last week Michele Bullock the RBA Governor was asked a good question about how high migration might impact inflation. But her answer was well, weird, as she tried to trade off pressure on the housing market from higher demand driven rent rises against supplying more workers to meet business demand (and implicitly increasing economic activity).

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Speaking at the National Press Club on Wednesday explained that Tuesdays Budget forecast of headline CPI inflation falling to 2.75% by the end of Financial Year 2024-25 (not I January as I noted some reporting claimed), was predicated on at least in part the government cutting net overseas migration.

“We’re seeing a substantial moderation in inflation in the forecasts and in the last couple of years as well, and that is largely because of how we’re managing the budget but it will also be increasingly about how we’re managing the population as well”, Chalmers said.

Right, so it must also be true that if lower migration will ease inflation, then high migration will drive inflation higher.

Then we got Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s policy as part of his budget response. He promised that a Coalition government would drastically slash migration as its main way of freeing up more than 100,000 homes over five years. A Dutton government would reduce Australia’s permanent migration program by a quarter – from 185,000 to 140,000 for the first two years “in recognition of the urgency of this crisis”, Dutton said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has described the opposition leader’s budget reply proposing migration cuts as an “unhinged and risky rant”.

But again, it’s a battle of announcables, with numbers being banded about. But my take is that neither side of politics are really wanting to take this on seriously, despite the direct link to higher inflation.

In both cases, this is more of policy announcements to try and win an election than nation building policy reform, which is needed for both migration and the gas market.

The net result will be higher inflation for longer, requiring higher interest rates than otherwise needed.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Migration Question Amplified; But Not Tackled… By Anyone!

00:00 / 00:17:42

Budget Smudge-it As “The Announcables” Flow!

The Budget on Tuesday evening comes at an interesting time in the life of the current Government, as well as for ordinary Australians.

With a year or so to go before the next election which must be held by May 2025 at the latest. (or sooner perhaps if Albo sees a window of opportunity) this would normally be a give-away budget to set the scene. Except that with inflation still strong and being driven by local factors such as wages growth and energy costs, as well as high housing costs thanks to very strong migration, the headroom is limited, at best.

The Announcables so far, which have continued through the weekend, are portraying it as a responsible budget aimed at containing inflation, supporting housing, and quote good for women.

Charlmers said this week his goal was to chart “the responsible middle course between those who want us to slash and burn in the budget, and those who think that it should be some kind of free-for-all of spending”.
Others less charitable might say it will contain a wadge of announcables, which sound good, but which are not tackling the real long term issues Australia faces.

Remarkably it seems further tax payer funds will flow to the construction sector. While the Governments goal of 1.2 million well-located homes built in five years starts on 1 July, remember just 12,850 homes were approved for construction in January. This seems a gulf which needs way more than announcables and political party tricks.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Budget Smudge-it As “The Announcables” Flow!

00:00 / 00:07:54