Another outing with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick around the latest news and data across the Australian Property market.
Can you believe the theoretical housing announcables? Where is demand for property really coming from? What is the story of overseas purchasers?
Plus, we look at the latest numbers, and Edwin was a tip for the week!
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Once upon a time, in a land down under, there was a Government who promised to build 1.2 million homes, over five years, or 240,000 per year or 60,000 homes per quarter. And he huffed and he puffed, but despite everything, the best he could manage, at least in the year to March 2024 was 162,600, homes approved, around 77,000 fewer than the Albanese government’s target and the lowest level since March 2013.
Dwelling construction has collapsed to at least decade-lows at the same time as population growth has surged by a record 660,000.
The only way to solve Australia’s housing shortage is to reduce net overseas migration to historical levels of less than 120,000 per year. Net overseas migration must be lowered below the nation’s ability to build housing and infrastructure.
If we did that, we could move from Albo’s fairy tales, to something more realistic, despite the reality that new construction will continue to grind lower, while existing projects are taking ever longer to complete.
It is truly a fine mess, created by at least 20 years of bad policy, but Albo is chief fairy on top of the tree. Time for mass policy change. Otherwise, population demand will forever exceed supply. And many ordinary Australians will be left out in the cold.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
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This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party as we look at the latest in the war on cash, and the current claims we are in a “pre-war” environment more generally. What, or who is driving the narrative and what does this say about our economic and social freedoms, and the way politics is played?
Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on.
Here is the link to Tarric’s slides: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024
Here is the link to the recent discussion with Leith van Onselen, which we mentioned in the show. Inside The Property Twilight Zone! https://youtu.be/OxA_G4Fqw5w
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker...
This is an edited version of my latest live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and Co-Founder of Macrobusiness.
We will dive into the latest in property, economics and politics, to try and make sense of what is happening. What’s the future trajectory of the markets? How will Albo’s announcables play in? What will happen to migration? And can we learn from what is happening in New Zealand?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Inside The Property Twilight Zone! With Leith van Onselen…
Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”.
The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot.
And recent DFA coverage stirred up the Chatterers….
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The ABS released data on the total number of dwellings approved in February recently. They say that despite growth in private houses in the month, the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 3.0%, following a 2.7% January decrease. Specifically, approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 24.9 per cent in February in seasonally adjusted terms, driven by a fall in the number of approved large apartment projects. In contrast, approvals for private houses rose 10.7 per cent in February.
This continues to confirm the massive gap between the Government aspiration of 1.2 million new homes over the next 5 years. On a straight-line basis, this translates to a target of 240,000 each year – which by the way is still way under the number needed to house the surging migrants and fill existing shortfalls.
So why not tackle the root cause issue here, too high migration? Entrepreneur Dick Smith fears today’s young people will have no savings and be forced to live in Chinese-style high-rise apartments unless immigration is urgently slashed, according to an article in the Daily Mail.
The veteran businessman and philanthropist says they need to understand the connection between a surging population and climate change. The entrepreneur, who turned 80 last month, fears homes with a backyard in Australia’s capital cities will no longer exist by 2050.
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Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Government Housing Targets An Impossible Dream As Building Approvals Shrink!
Our latest Friday Afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we look at the current data, which questions potential rate cuts, and housing trends, as demand stays strong while supply is limited.
Below the water line we examine some of the underlying assumptions behind the numbers, and how politics have changed.
Worse, the structural issues can be traced back to a series of political decisions, which were policy errors – when will they come clean?
Tarric’s charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-april-2024 if you want to follow along.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Domain has released its Rental Report for March, which delivered more bad news for tenants, on top of the data I released recently which showed three quarters of those renting already have cash-flow issues. Younger families and first-generation Australians are being hit really hard, but as I discussed in my live show, other household categories are also being caught in the rental squeeze. And despite the rise in rents, some investors are selling due to poor net returns.
With net overseas migration forecast to remain historically high, albeit lower than last year, Australia’s rental crisis will continue, even if vacancy rates and rental inflation ease a little.
As a result, more Australians will be plunged into rental stress, group housing, or homelessness.
The solution is to cut net overseas migration hard to a level well below the nation’s capacity to build homes and infrastructure.
The other factor no one is talking about is that renters under extreme pressure are being coerced into buying property, even if its poor quality or in the wrong area, just to exit the rental sector and try to get some control. With borrowing power down about 40-50%, these households are leveraging up, as see by the larger loan balances against income. But this could be an issue of jumping from the frying pan into the fire!
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Tenants Caught In The Python-Like Property Squeeze Have To Pay More!
Wherever you look, the news is not good for those wishing to see housing affordability relief.
First demand for rentals continues to be powered by the overseas influx. New data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that at the end of February, the number of international students in Australia hit a record high of 713,144, whereas the number of temporary migrants in Australia hit a record high of 2.8 million (nearly 2.4 million excluding visitors).
Or put it another way, the number of student visa holders in Australia is running around 80,000 above the pre-pandemic peak, while the number of temporary visa holders excluding visitors is around 400,000 above the pre-pandemic peak.
Then we can turn to the question of new housing supply. I have covered before the fact that the country is littered with half-completed construction projects, many of which are competing for labour and resources with the large number of government and commercial projects also currently running. This crowded out home builders as the major projects sucked in labour and drove up its cost.
But we also continue to see more building firms going under. In the light of this, perhaps we should not be surprised that the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January, according to data released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
