Politics – Page 8 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Budget Smudge-it As “The Announcables” Flow!

The Budget on Tuesday evening comes at an interesting time in the life of the current Government, as well as for ordinary Australians.

With a year or so to go before the next election which must be held by May 2025 at the latest. (or sooner perhaps if Albo sees a window of opportunity) this would normally be a give-away budget to set the scene. Except that with inflation still strong and being driven by local factors such as wages growth and energy costs, as well as high housing costs thanks to very strong migration, the headroom is limited, at best.

The Announcables so far, which have continued through the weekend, are portraying it as a responsible budget aimed at containing inflation, supporting housing, and quote good for women.

Charlmers said this week his goal was to chart “the responsible middle course between those who want us to slash and burn in the budget, and those who think that it should be some kind of free-for-all of spending”.
Others less charitable might say it will contain a wadge of announcables, which sound good, but which are not tackling the real long term issues Australia faces.

Remarkably it seems further tax payer funds will flow to the construction sector. While the Governments goal of 1.2 million well-located homes built in five years starts on 1 July, remember just 12,850 homes were approved for construction in January. This seems a gulf which needs way more than announcables and political party tricks.

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Budget Smudge-it As “The Announcables” Flow!

00:00 / 00:07:54

The “Tapping Super For Home Purchase” Conundrum!

Housing affordability is shot, as we have been discussing, thanks to demand stoked by high migration, higher lending multiples as the financial system was deregulation, and higher interest rates mirroring the RBA’s battle to tame inflation. As a result first time buyers are delaying their purchase by several years, and more borrowers are leveraged up to the gills, despite first home grant schemes, and shared equity schemes, which as the Productivity Commission showed did help a few get into the market, but lifted prices for everyone else, so did not help structurally.

Australians are already among the highest carriers of household debt in the world. In fact, according to Domain’s 2024 First Home Buyer Report, an entry-price home in Melbourne costs $678,000. In Sydney, it jumps to $927,250. Looking outside the two major cities reduces the cost to $545,000. To be lucky enough to secure any of these options, a 20 per cent deposit will set you back between $109,000 and $185,000.

So where do prospective buyers get that sort of cash? Well some might be able to get help from the Family Bank, as I showed recently, the average is more than $106,000 now, great if you have wealthy parents. Others may be able to save, but it’s a long road, and whilst interest rates are higher than they have been for some time on deposits, it will take years, and longer still if rates are cut later. Then of course there is the old chestnut, use accumulated super.

This week we got a draft report from the parliamentary committee chaired by prominent superannuation critic Andrew Bragg which has upped the ante on the Coalition’s super for housing policy, suggesting first home buyers should be able to withdraw all their retirement savings to buy a house or use it as collateral to help borrow.

My view is that this is actually a proxy political war on the purpose and nature of superannuation, rather than a real honest discussion about how to fix the broken property market. It is in essence a mixture of misdirection – look over there, not here, and avoid the more critical issues of migration control and increased and better-quality supply of affordable housing. Or in other words, it’s a case of fiddling while Rome burns, again.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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The “Tapping Super For Home Purchase” Conundrum!

00:00 / 00:17:14

More Housing “Announcables” From The Government…

Those following my regular Property Rants with Edwin will know we have been speculating that there would be budget measures announced next week to help property developers. Well, they could not wait it seems…

The 600,000 plus migrants arriving in Australia this past year are continuing to put more pressure on the housing sector, and helps to explain the fact that rising rents, interest rate hikes and surging living costs in the past few years have inflamed what was already among the world’s least affordable housing rental markets, where record numbers of people can no longer afford to buy after a surge in house prices.

In fact, the federal government wants to find tens of thousands of workers to help build new homes in an attempt to address Australia’s ongoing housing crisis, reacting to pressure from the Construction sector, which already employs about 1.35 million workers across the country.

Of course, the logical step would be to right size migration to match the capacity to build new homes, which with a following wind might be around 150,000 each year. That should be core Government Policy. But no.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

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More Housing “Announcables” From The Government…

00:00 / 00:13:41

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another outing with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick around the latest news and data across the Australian Property market.

Can you believe the theoretical housing announcables? Where is demand for property really coming from? What is the story of overseas purchasers?

Plus, we look at the latest numbers, and Edwin was a tip for the week!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

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Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

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Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:14:47

The Stupidest Tale Of All!

Once upon a time, in a land down under, there was a Government who promised to build 1.2 million homes, over five years, or 240,000 per year or 60,000 homes per quarter. And he huffed and he puffed, but despite everything, the best he could manage, at least in the year to March 2024 was 162,600, homes approved, around 77,000 fewer than the Albanese government’s target and the lowest level since March 2013.

Dwelling construction has collapsed to at least decade-lows at the same time as population growth has surged by a record 660,000.

The only way to solve Australia’s housing shortage is to reduce net overseas migration to historical levels of less than 120,000 per year. Net overseas migration must be lowered below the nation’s ability to build housing and infrastructure.

If we did that, we could move from Albo’s fairy tales, to something more realistic, despite the reality that new construction will continue to grind lower, while existing projects are taking ever longer to complete.

It is truly a fine mess, created by at least 20 years of bad policy, but Albo is chief fairy on top of the tree. Time for mass policy change. Otherwise, population demand will forever exceed supply. And many ordinary Australians will be left out in the cold.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Stupidest Tale Of All!

00:00 / 00:12:26

DFA Live Q&A Replay: What’s Driving The “Pre-War” And “Cashless” Propaganda? With Robbie Barwick

This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party as we look at the latest in the war on cash, and the current claims we are in a “pre-war” environment more generally. What, or who is driving the narrative and what does this say about our economic and social freedoms, and the way politics is played?

https://citizensparty.org.au

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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A Replay: What’s Driving The “Pre-War” And “Cashless” Propaganda? With Robbie Barwick

00:00 / 01:42:12

Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker…

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on.

Here is the link to Tarric’s slides:
https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024

Here is the link to the recent discussion with Leith van Onselen, which we mentioned in the show. Inside The Property Twilight Zone! https://youtu.be/OxA_G4Fqw5w

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker...

00:00 / 01:05:16

DFA Live Q&A Replay: Inside The Property Twilight Zone! With Leith van Onselen…

This is an edited version of my latest live discussion, with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth, and Co-Founder of Macrobusiness.

We will dive into the latest in property, economics and politics, to try and make sense of what is happening. What’s the future trajectory of the markets? How will Albo’s announcables play in? What will happen to migration? And can we learn from what is happening in New Zealand?

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A Replay: Inside The Property Twilight Zone! With Leith van Onselen…

00:00 / 01:35:03

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another deep dive into property and politics with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest spin on affordability and “hot suburbs”.

The drive towards high-rise density has consequences, but even the quality of low-rise is a concern. Meantime, listings are still in the doldrums, while rental availability is largely shot.

And recent DFA coverage stirred up the Chatterers….

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:15:22

Government Housing Targets An Impossible Dream As Building Approvals Shrink!

The ABS released data on the total number of dwellings approved in February recently. They say that despite growth in private houses in the month, the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January. The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 3.0%, following a 2.7% January decrease.
Specifically, approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 24.9 per cent in February in seasonally adjusted terms, driven by a fall in the number of approved large apartment projects. In contrast, approvals for private houses rose 10.7 per cent in February.

This continues to confirm the massive gap between the Government aspiration of 1.2 million new homes over the next 5 years. On a straight-line basis, this translates to a target of 240,000 each year – which by the way is still way under the number needed to house the surging migrants and fill existing shortfalls.

So why not tackle the root cause issue here, too high migration? Entrepreneur Dick Smith fears today’s young people will have no savings and be forced to live in Chinese-style high-rise apartments unless immigration is urgently slashed, according to an article in the Daily Mail.

The veteran businessman and philanthropist says they need to understand the connection between a surging population and climate change. The entrepreneur, who turned 80 last month, fears homes with a backyard in Australia’s capital cities will no longer exist by 2050.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Government Housing Targets An Impossible Dream As Building Approvals Shrink!

00:00 / 00:15:19