The Property Price Downturn Is Spreading….

I have been saying for some time that some property markets are on the turn. More evidence of this has now been published. And while aggregate data is averaged, CoreLogic’s October report does highlights a modest rise in national home values, but easing annual growth, and shifting market dynamics across different regions and property segments with wider falls.

They say that nationally, their Home Value Index recorded a 0.3% rise in October, but it was driven by mid-sized capitals like Perth, which saw a 1.4% increase, whereas Sydney saw a -0.1% decline in home values, alongside declines in Darwin (-1.0%), Canberra (-0.3%), Melbourne (-0.2%), as well as regional Victoria (-0.2%) in the month.

We also see that upper quartile house values are falling more than lower quartile values, which recorded a rise. The trend of stronger performance in the affordable market segment is consistent across capital cities.

A combination of less borrowing capacity and broader affordability challenges, as well as a higher-than-average share of investors and first home buyers in the market is the most likely explanation for stronger conditions across the lower value cohorts of the market.

Slower growth in home values has been accompanied by a rise in advertised stock levels. Based on a rolling four week count of listings to October 27th, advertised inventory has increased 12.7% since the end of winter across the combined capitals, with the largest increase occurring in Perth where listings are 20.6% higher, albeit from an exceptionally low base.

Alongside the rise in advertised supply, the number of home sales looks to be fading. Estimates for capital city sales activity over the three months ending October were down -7.5% from three months earlier and -1.6% lower than at the same time last year.

My analysis shows that more investors are under water from a cash flow perspective, and we are seeing more investors jumping ship, while others are buying.

All up given the higher for longer trajectory of both inflation and interest rates, I suspect we will see continued weakness in several markets into 2025.

But as always we need to go granular to see the detail across locations and property types. I will be sharing some of my mapping on this in the next few days.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Property Price Downturn Is Spreading….
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DFA Live Q&A Replay: Who Needs A Real Estate Agent Now? With Edwin Almeida

This is an edited version of a live discussion with property insider Edwin Almeida, as we explore the question of whether we really need a Real Estate Agent at all. What are the alternatives offered by tech and self-management? Do they work?

Original stream here: https://youtube.com/live/tbg3YhuYV-A

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Who Needs A Real Estate Agent Now? With Edwin Almeida
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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Back to our normal Monday schedule now, with Edwin in full flight on Albo watch, as we kick over the latest property data and trends.

We look at recent announcements from NSW on rental protections, which are following those in VIC, (where the tribunal is very busy) and also examine the VIC policy of easier subdivision.

Markets though are easing in some areas as listings rise.

And join us tomorrow as we discuss whether you need a Real Estate agent at all these days in our live 8pm Sydney show.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!
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Its Edwin’s Wednesday Evening Property Rant!

Yes, we are back with our latest Rant as Edwin makes an offer for Albo’s property, we pull apart the latest announcables, and point out the risks in the market, if you believe the wrong sources of information.

Next week we are back to our normal Monday time slot.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Wednesday Evening Property Rant!
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The Falls In Home Prices Are Accelerating: What Next?

Last Tuesday in my live show about the latest from our surveys, we walked through our scenarios, for property prices over the next 3 years, by each state. I’ll recap that segment from the show, but before I do here is a screen grab from Sydney Auctioneer Tom Panos, who says “The Sydney Real Estate Market is in a price fall. It’s a great time to buy in the next few months”. Well, it’s certainly looking like a buyers’ market, but not sure I would rush in now. Even Albo switched from an auction to private treaty for the sale of his investment property in Dulwich Hill! As Tom Panos put it, “they are not going to get crazy bidding on the day”.

Real Estate.com published an article on the 12th October 2024 with the title “$75k down in 3 months” The inner-city hotspots in freefall. The article referred to Brisbane.

Pressure on households is leading to a fall in consumption and savings. Second, consumer confidence is in the gutter, and third business investment is flat, suggesting that we may see unemployment rising ahead. In the light of that, I will let you decide which of our three scenarios looks most likely to eventuate. Oh and of course the RBA seems to be holding firm on higher for longer interest rates as bond rates also move higher.

So the bottom line, it’s a time for extra caution, especially as more investment properties on a net cash flow basis are under water. But as always its important to go granular and get the local data as each market is different, and also do due diligence on a property if you do decided to make an offer, as capital appreciation might be limited at best for the foreseeable future.

I will be discussing this further on my Monday Rant with Property Insider Edwin Almeida, so look out for that show tomorrow.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
The Falls In Home Prices Are Accelerating: What Next?
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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In tonight’s show we emphasize the need to do real due diligence when considering property and listen in to a live call with an agent on this important topic. We also discuss the latest political debates around the property market, and Edwin’s tip of the week should spark some ideas!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!
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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our property insider as Edwin and I look at the high-rise push, and consider the consequences, touch on the stranded properties still on the market, and discussion the latest misdirection from the Government.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!
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Don’t Be Misled By Vendor Discounting!

Are property markets morphing into buyers markets and vendor dropping their asking prices? Well, according to recent news corp articles, home seekers are bagging properties for an average of up to 15% below the list price in pockets of Sydney.

Vendor discounting tends to reflect price growth recorded a few months ago, rather than signalling the direction of future price growth. But its complex, Especially now.

Because of the over quoting and under quoting issue, I think it is really very hard to get a read on the true vendor discounting. The averages quoted are often misleading, there is considerable variation, even within the same areas.

Bottom line, is more than ever it is important to understand the granular data in the area you are looking at, rather than the averages, which mask what is really going on. In fact in my live show next Tuesday we will do another deep dive into my data at the post code level, so mark you diaries for that. Meantime, take vendor discounting with a truck load of salt.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Don’t Be Misled By Vendor Discounting!
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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

The latest news from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest moves from Government (including erecting statues!!) news from China, and the latest data. Things continue to show a gap between strategy and reality, as negative gearing questions emerge again!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!
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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In our latest show we kick around the recent events which question where property is going (depending on your point of view). Unbelievable!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.