This is an edited version of a live discussion about the state of the Australian Property Market, with Sydney based Mortgage Broker, Chris Bates from Flint.
Chris started as a Financial Adviser back in 2007 and sold his Financial Advice business in 2020. Over the past 9 years, Chris has grown into one of Australia’s top Mortgage Brokers and is passionate about taking the product providing industry to a trusted advice based profession.
He is known for regularly airing his views on sound property investing on both LinkedIn and popular property industry podcasts The Elephant in the Room and Australian Property Podcast. You can find him on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/christopherbates
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Property Snakes And Ladders: With Chris Bates
In this week’s Rant we look at forecasts for future property prices (and who makes them), some of the recent changes in the dynamics of property listings, and a warning for those considering a new kitchen. We also consider the latest stats on foreign property transactions.
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Last week, yet another building and construction firm hit the wall, collapsing into liquidation owing $5.7m straddling two different states and territories, leading to a “domino effect” impacting 130 projects and 80 staff members.
This is part of the continuing litany of failure, as data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) shows that a total of 1,245 companies were declared insolvent in May alone.
This is 44% higher than the same period in 2023 and 122% higher than in May 2022. It is also the highest number of insolvencies in a single month since ASIC started reporting this data in 1999. The surge in insolvencies was driven by the construction sector, which recorded 313 insolvencies in May – a record for this cycle.
This is an object lesson for anyone considering contracting with the building and construction firm of any size; do your own due diligence! It also presents another barrier to the Albanese government’s target of building 1.2 million homes in five years—a level of construction that Australia has never achieved before, despite record activity compared with other countries and over 5% of people working in the sector.
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Construction Firms Failures Hit A New Peak: There Will Be Consequences…
In this weeks show Edwin and I look at the latest in political interventions to “help” the property market, consider the impact of more Chinese money coming into Australian property, and the impact of the Bank Of Mum and Dad. Plus, our normal updates on listings, and Edwin’s latest Tip Of The Week.
It’s raining “announcables” at the moment, with interesting developments this past week on the housing and finance front as city, state and federal Governments continue to poke at the broken system. Schemes include, government buying off the plan to give construction firms a leg up, cheap housing for essential workers, changes to lending rules, higher council rates for investors, and further crackdowns on airB&B.
While these may sound attractive from a media positioning perspective, they will hardly move the dial on the broken housing system in Australia. It’s a case of fiddling while Rome burns.
In fact, for more on the broken system, join me on my live show next Tuesday evening at 8pm Sydney, when I will be joined by Leith Van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth as we discuss “The Great Housing Poker Game”.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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Hello, I’m From The Government, And I’m Here To Help You! (Honest!!?)
After a week away, we’re back with another episode as we look at the stupidity in the property sector, as some are piling into the investor sector, while others are trapped due to the higher interest rates, and nowhere to go.
Data from my surveys, as discussed this past week, along with other market data shows we have a very divided housing market, with on one side of the ledger many households under significant pressure and begin forced to sell up, while watching their property values slide, while on the other side property investors are still piling in competing with owner occupied buyers, especially at the lower end of the market and bidding prices higher. Actually of course there are many micro markets across the country, and so any headline “data” on rises or falls mask important differences. Housing isn’t just the great Australian barbecue-stopper. It’s our greatest pain point, too. All this only days after Australia’s GDP figures grew at the lowest rate in three decades, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, and as traders push out rate cut expectations well into next year.
So today I will be looking at the latest signals from the data relating to mortgage prisoners, forced sales, credit growth and investor activity, to provide context for the misleading headlines we see on the property portals.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
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The Housing Market Sheep And Goats (Which Are You?)
Another week, another Rant from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the disruption in the property market, the fall out in terms of human impact and the weak responses from Government.
Housing is in crisis in Australia, its too expensive and relative to population there is not enough of it. As I discuss with independent Journalist Tarric Brooker last week, though shockingly, we have built more homes per 100,000 people than Canada, The US and the UK. In other words, we have a greater proportion of our economy dedicated already to housing construction, with perhaps 1.35 million people working in the sector. And we also know completion times are blowing out now, thanks to poor supply chains, lack of available labour, and poor-quality construction. In NSW half of high-rise projects have severe defects.
But the Government wants to push the supply-side levers some more, as exemplified in their Attachment to the budget papers: Statement 4, Meeting Australia’s Housing Challenge from the Treasury.
It starts out “Australia has a housing shortage. There are not enough homes being built in the right areas to meet the needs of our communities. This statement focuses on the reasons for the current undersupply of housing, how it affects affordability, and the changes required to more quickly unlock supply to meet the housing needs of all Australians. It also sets out how the Government’s policy responds to these drivers of undersupply”.
This undersupply they say accounts for the increases in rents, mortgage repayments and house prices.
Talk of course is cheap, but will this translate into real actions? And what about the elephant in the room because of course, the focus should be to curtail migration from is very high current levels, and bring demand back closer to long term averages, and over the budget period both sides of politics have to a degree been talking about this, though, as I discussed in my recent show The Migration Question Amplified; But Not Tackled… By Anyone!, it’s a battle of announcables, with numbers being banded about.
But my take is that neither side of politics are really wanting to take this on seriously, despite the direct link to higher inflation. The net result will be higher inflation for longer, requiring higher interest rates than otherwise needed.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
