Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
A further deeper dive into the RBA Review recommendations. I felt it was more like blancmange, than a piece of innovative reform – not least because the proposed structural separation and targetting are close to that used by other Central banks, who make precisely the same mistakes as our own.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A further deeper dive into the RBA Review recommendations. I felt it was more like blancmange, than a piece of innovative reform – not least because the proposed structural separation and targetting are close to that used by other Central banks, who make precisely the same mistakes as our own.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA Review has been released, and I discuss the recommendations with Robbie Barwick from The Citizens Party, which will removed important powers from Government and reaffirms the neoliberal philosophy which has undermined our economy for years.
The final week for submissions to the Regional Banking Inquiry also offers an important opportunity to make the case for a National Postal Bank, as an antidote to the banking drive to control our lives.
https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/64-more-towns-nabs-regional-bank-firing-line
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA Review has been released, and I discuss the recommendations with Robbie Barwick from The Citizens Party, which will removed important powers from Government and reaffirms the neoliberal philosophy which has undermined our economy for years.
The final week for submissions to the Regional Banking Inquiry also offers an important opportunity to make the case for a National Postal Bank, as an antidote to the banking drive to control our lives.
https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/64-more-towns-nabs-regional-bank-firing-line
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA Minutes certainly took the wind out of the sails of those expecting a rate cut anytime soon. More hikes are being signalled, and in fact Morgan Stanley flagged that the markets had got ahead of themselves.
The 30 Day Implied rates are also moving higher. So those being influenced by the spruikers saying now is good buying should be cautious. Things are more complex.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A significant gulf has opened up between New Zealand and Australia in terms of monetary policy, after RBNZ lifted another 50 basis points, while Australia held. Underlying this are a series of conflicting assumptions about how the economies will fare – but the risk of recession in New Zealand is now highly likely – some would say certain; while in Australia, the protection of the housing market appears to be front of mind, with the RBA willing to let inflation burn hotter for longer. Both cannot be right!
We discuss the Tuesday RBA decision, which was more about waiting to assess the impact of their past decisions, and the broader economic dynamics, than a “pivot”, yet many with vested interests are pushing that line. Worth considering the fixed rate cliff, and also the likely rise in unemployment. But the damage has been done, with significantly higher mortgage repayments locked and loaded now.
On 31st March the RBA and APRA released their latest monthly data to end February. There was significant evidence of loan growth easing back – a consequence of higher rates and tighter underwriting resulting from the change. That said, another record was breached.
We examine the data.
The RBA minutes today revealed they considered both 50 and 25 basis points rate hikes at their last meeting – but no thought of holding rates. So it was not a close decision, the RBA turned more hawkish.
And more rate hikes must be expected, while inflation won’t drop into 2-3% range until 2025.
So expect more rate hikes and higher for longer, with a following fall in wealth and output. This all aligned with the Governor’s comments last week to Parliament.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the state of play relating to the Australian economy, housing and finances with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness.
Where are interest rates headed, and what will the fall out be?
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
