A final 2023 chat with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party. We look at the RBA’s latest outing on cash usage, the Senate review of the RBA’s independence bill, and the formation of a National Investment entity.
On 7 December 2023, the Senate referred the Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 [Provisions] to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 21 March 2024.
The critical issue is that the Treasurer is walking back Government’s power to intervene with RBA decisions if they do not agree. This power was put into the constitution years ago but has never been used.
Without it, the Technocrats will be able to take over, and follow the lead of the Bank For International settlements, to the potential disadvantage of ordinary Australians and businesses.
Make a submission to make the case for this power to be retained! The closing date for submissions to this inquiry is 2 February 2024.
On 7 December 2023, the Senate referred the Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 [Provisions] to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 21 March 2024.
The critical issue is that the Treasurer is walking back Government’s power to intervene with RBA decisions if they do not agree. This power was put into the constitution years ago but has never been used.
Without it, the Technocrats will be able to take over, and follow the lead of the Bank For International settlements, to the potential disadvantage of ordinary Australians and businesses.
Make a submission to make the case for this power to be retained! The closing date for submissions to this inquiry is 2 February 2024.
On 7 December 2023, the Senate referred the Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 [Provisions] to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 21 March 2024.
The critical issue is that the Treasurer is walking back Government’s power to intervene with RBA decisions if they do not agree. This power was put into the constitution years ago but has never been used.
Without it, the Technocrats will be able to take over, and follow the lead of the Bank For International settlements, to the potential disadvantage of ordinary Australians and businesses.
Make a submission to make the case for this power to be retained! The closing date for submissions to this inquiry is 2 February 2024.
While markets seem to be thinking about coordinated rate cuts next year, the truth is, economies are in very different positions, with New Zealand already looking stagflationary, and the ECB and the Bank of England not sharing the rate cut love exhibited by the FED. Norge Bank lifted this past week, and the RBA is still not close to a cut.
So we think the inflation poker game is fragmenting. The results will still be higher rates for many, for longer than the markets are signalling.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
While markets seem to be thinking about coordinated rate cuts next year, the truth is, economies are in very different positions, with New Zealand already looking stagflationary, and the ECB and the Bank of England not sharing the rate cut love exhibited by the FED. Norge Bank lifted this past week, and the RBA is still not close to a cut.
So we think the inflation poker game is fragmenting. The results will still be higher rates for many, for longer than the markets are signalling.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
You will recall that Australia’s October monthly CPI indicator from the Australian Bureau of Statistics came in below market expectations at 4.9%/yr (versus the consensus of 5.2%/yr). There were a number of factors which messed with the data, as I discussed in a previous show.
According to CBA, other surveys also suggest that trimmed mean CPI in Q4 23 is unlikely to be stronger than the RBA’s ~1.0%/qtr forecast.
But these monthly numbers are flaky, because the critical services price movements are not captured until the quarterly series which is due out in January.
As I discussed in my earlier show, the problem is the last mile problem – in that the last part of getting inflation down towards the target is the hardest, especially when then RBA now has a 2.5% central target, and as in the US data out yesterday, its services inflation which is driving the numbers as goods inflation eases back.
On this theme, Statistics New Zealand on Wednesday released its new monthly inflation gauge, which captures around 45% of the CPI basket.
The conclusion of all this, is the partial monthly numbers may well deceive, and should be taken with a truck load of salt. When the quarterly numbers land later then check out the services components. Goods price inflation may be coming under control, but services is not. And within that, watch the rental and housing sector in particular.
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Next Tuesday I will be running my live show on Household Financial Stress, which continues to worsen. However, what constitutes “stress” is being debated widely – its a matter of definition.
The RBA has joined the debate, but I will argue in today’s show they conveniently presented a lop-sided story, which understates the true picture.
Andrea Brischetto, Head of Financial Stability gave a speech at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, University of Sydney, titled Financial Stability and the Financial Health of Australian Mortgagors.
There has understandably been a lot of focus on this issue of late, with many households facing substantial financial pressures from high inflation and higher interest rates. Some of the households feeling these pressures most acutely are those with lower incomes, including many renters.
But the focus was on households with mortgages and how their financial health relates to financial stability.
There has been a lot said and written about the issue of household financial stress in recent times, using a multitude of data sources and reporting on many different individual experiences. Wednesday’s national accounts showed how inflation, tax and interest rates have weighed on real household disposable income. And as RBA Governor Michele Bullock said when discussing the challenge of inflation following the RBA Board meeting this week: High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. The Governor emphasised that the effect of all of this is that many households are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances.
So she presented an overall picture of the situation, drawing on the RBA’s extensive work in this area, which is published in detail in our regular Financial Stability Review.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Next Tuesday I will be running my live show on Household Financial Stress, which continues to worsen. However, what constitutes “stress” is being debated widely – its a matter of definition.
The RBA has joined the debate, but I will argue in today’s show they conveniently presented a lop-sided story, which understates the true picture.
Andrea Brischetto, Head of Financial Stability gave a speech at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, University of Sydney, titled Financial Stability and the Financial Health of Australian Mortgagors.
There has understandably been a lot of focus on this issue of late, with many households facing substantial financial pressures from high inflation and higher interest rates. Some of the households feeling these pressures most acutely are those with lower incomes, including many renters.
But the focus was on households with mortgages and how their financial health relates to financial stability.
There has been a lot said and written about the issue of household financial stress in recent times, using a multitude of data sources and reporting on many different individual experiences. Wednesday’s national accounts showed how inflation, tax and interest rates have weighed on real household disposable income. And as RBA Governor Michele Bullock said when discussing the challenge of inflation following the RBA Board meeting this week: High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and damages the functioning of the economy. It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and worsens income inequality. The Governor emphasised that the effect of all of this is that many households are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances.
So she presented an overall picture of the situation, drawing on the RBA’s extensive work in this area, which is published in detail in our regular Financial Stability Review.
The Centrals Bankers’ love in in Hong Kong this week was full of contradictions. Indeed, yesterday I featured the RBA’s new Governors comments, centered around her view households were largely coping ok with the 4.25% hike in rates. My reaction was how out of touch with real households she sounded.
The International Monetary Fund this month said the Australian economy was running above capacity, with low unemployment, “sticky” inflation and rising house prices and so forecast a delay in local inflation returning to the 2 per cent to 3 per cent target range until early 2026, slower than most other advanced countries. They also warned federal government that the nation’s infrastructure spending boom has helped push the economy beyond full capacity, requiring the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates further to tame inflation.
But also attending the conference, and a speaker later in the Day was Ex Governor Philip Lowe. He is worried central banks may not have increased interest rates high enough to control inflation and that cost of living help from governments adds to inflation.
The ABS, said: “The 4.9 per cent increase in CPI is down from 5.6 per cent in September and below the peak of 8.4 per cent in December 2022.” But as we will see, the number was lower, thanks partly to Government intervention, which of course means higher spending.
So perhaps the truth is, while inflation was down a little, it may be Central Banks still have more to do, so the game of political chicken on the inflation front is actually far from over. We will see.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
The Centrals Bankers’ love in in Hong Kong this week was full of contradictions. Indeed, yesterday I featured the RBA’s new Governors comments, centered around her view households were largely coping ok with the 4.25% hike in rates. My reaction was how out of touch with real households she sounded.
The International Monetary Fund this month said the Australian economy was running above capacity, with low unemployment, “sticky” inflation and rising house prices and so forecast a delay in local inflation returning to the 2 per cent to 3 per cent target range until early 2026, slower than most other advanced countries. They also warned federal government that the nation’s infrastructure spending boom has helped push the economy beyond full capacity, requiring the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates further to tame inflation.
But also attending the conference, and a speaker later in the Day was Ex Governor Philip Lowe. He is worried central banks may not have increased interest rates high enough to control inflation and that cost of living help from governments adds to inflation.
The ABS, said: “The 4.9 per cent increase in CPI is down from 5.6 per cent in September and below the peak of 8.4 per cent in December 2022.” But as we will see, the number was lower, thanks partly to Government intervention, which of course means higher spending.
So perhaps the truth is, while inflation was down a little, it may week be Central Banks still have more to do, so the game of political chicken on the inflation front is actually far from over. We will see.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
