The Sham Build To Rent Property Solution…

Demand for a place to live remains very high, driven by population growth from mega-high migration and low but perhaps improving vacancy rates in the rental sector. We know that roughly one third of households own their own property, outright, one third own with a mortgage, and one third rent. Those in the last two categories are expanding, while those who own outright are shrinking as a proportion of the total – though with some state variations.

Over recent decades, the Government has effectively outsourced the provision of rental housing to the private sector, via mum and dad investors, who get considerable tax breaks to hold property for rent, and more recently though the rise of the so-called build to rent sector, which is being held out as a solution to the lack of property for rent.

The critical question is do we want to go further into the mire of neo-liberalism and let big international investors build homes to rent in Australia, with rents that according to Cameron Murray are typically higher than local providers, while offering even more tax breaks, to corporates, or should the Government get back into the home building game, (see my discussion with Elisa Barwick yesterday) through a public bank, and also dial back migration to a sustainable level. Ideology apart the answer seems obvious, and yet… they still want more migrations to pump GDP and more build to rent to meet a housing target which was built in fairy land.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Rent Crisis: Whats Really Going On?

Are rents really rising as fast as being reported?

A recent The Conversation article suggests no. But on the other hand our data tells us much more about the truth of the rental crisis.

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you. Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side. Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make. Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest. Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

FINAL REMINDER: DFA Live Q&A The Renters Dilemma

Join us for a live discussion with Meighan Wells from Property Pursuit as we explore the current dynamics of the rental sector. Given rising interest rates, and rents, lack of supply and the reemergence of AirB&B, how does this all play out. This is part of a DFA series on renting.

You can ask a question live.

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The Rise Of Renters By Choice

The private rental sector has expanded at more than twice the rate of the increase in Australian households in the last two decades. This increasingly diverse form of tenure now houses about one in four of us. Via The Conversation.

Australia’s lightly regulated private rental sector means the insecurity of tenants is a key factor in why most Australians aspire to own their home. However, despite this insecurity, our research suggests an increase in people choosing to rent for a long time – ten years or more – accounts for a small part of the growth in private renters.

Much of this growth is attributable to middle- and high-income tenants. Especially in Melbourne and Sydney, high housing prices mean saving for a deposit takes much longer than in the 1990s. In the meantime these households are renting for a long time.

‘Who stays put, loses’

In our survey of 600 private renters in different areas of Sydney and Melbourne, we asked: “Many people are renting privately for longer periods (10+ years). Do you think this is a positive trend?”

About a third responded in mainly positive terms. Their main reasons were:

  • renting is more affordable than owning
  • there are fewer worries and liabilities
  • renting is more flexible than owning.

Some questioned the norm of home ownership in Australia.

For a more in-depth understanding, we interviewed 60 long-term private renters in low, medium and high-rent areas in Melbourne and Sydney. Almost all who chose to rent mentioned flexibility as a key advantage.

“Choosers” highly valued the freedom to move or travel at will. Zygmunt Bauman’s concept of liquid modernity highlights the increasing desire for transience. As he explains:

Transience has replaced durability at the top of the value table. What is valued today (by choice as much as by unchosen necessity) is the ability to be on the move, to travel light and at short notice. Power is measured by the speed with which responsibilities can be escaped. Who accelerates, wins; who stays put, loses.

Renters in their own words

Patricia*, who lives in a high-rent part of Melbourne, has always rented.

Well since I came to Australia in 1977, I rented. I didn’t want to buy. Got close [to buying] a couple of times, but changed my mind.

I just travel anywhere and everywhere. I thought […] if you’ve got a house you’re stuck there, and I thought, no. I work hard for my money, so that money that I work hard for is for me, not to have a [permanent] roof over my head. […] Renting has been good for me because I can still do what I want.

Myra lives in a studio apartment in a high-rent area in Sydney and has no desire to own a home. She is single, in her mid- to late 30s, and earns well. The possibility of being asked to vacate did not bother her.

Maybe I’ve been lucky, but every situation has always sorted itself out. You know a lot of people would have freaked out if they had to move out […] It didn’t concern me in the slightest, yeah. I mean not at all. There’s always somewhere to stay. So it suits my lifestyle. I wouldn’t want to buy [a property], even if I had the money.

Leanne inherited a third of a house. Rather than using the proceeds to buy a property, she decided to move to Melbourne’s inner city (a high-rent area) and continue renting.

So I thought rather than put money into a house […] I would invest it and I could travel and go to concerts and live the life I wanted to lead, so that’s basically what I did and I’m still renting.

Pam was renting in a low-rent area in outer Sydney. She felt her situation required the flexibility of renting:

The relationship was rocky and you can’t predict the future, but I knew it wasn’t going to end up in marriage and kids and all that kind of crap […] We were both working, both earning good money and we could have afforded to buy a house between us […] But for me it was like, no. I don’t know where this [her relationship] is going, so no way, I’m not going to put myself in that predicament and then have to go through court to go, “This is mine, this is yours”, all that crap. But so it was my choice to rent and to stick to it […] I’m not going to rely on anybody else for anything, no way.

Her renter status allowed Pam to make a rapid, clean break.

I just got up one day and walked cos I knew he was going to ask me to marry him the next day, so I said: “I’m just going to go to the shops to get a packet of cigarettes.” I left everything behind. I went for a walk, never went home.

For the families with children who choose to rent long-term, the key reason is it allows them to live in highly desirable areas where they cannot afford to buy. Gabrielle and her partner earn well and live in a high-rent area in Sydney:

Sure it [home ownership] provides you with security and you don’t have that stress of […] having to move. I get that, but at the same time, you know for us, for example, if we wanted to buy we’d be paying four times what we pay at the moment in a mortgage […] It doesn’t really make financial sense to go and do that […] You’d have to live somewhere. So I choose to live in a nice area where my children are [at school].

They also did not want the burden of a large mortgage:

[…] I have no desire to put myself in a position where I have a $2 million mortgage and have to work for the rest of my short life to pay for it […]

Although probably only a small proportion of people choose to rent long-term, this option may be gaining ground. Young, well-paid professionals in particular see the flexibility of private renting as attractive.

Location also seems to be a critical factor. Most of the choosers rented in desirable inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne, which would otherwise be inaccessible. An estimated one-in-eight private renters are “rentvestors” who rent where they want to live and buy elsewhere to get a foothold in the housing market.

*All names used are pseudonyms.

Authors: Alan Morris, Research Professor, University of Technology Sydney; Hal Pawson, Associate Director – City Futures – Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, UNSW; Kath Hulse, Research Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology

Number of Australians becoming homeowners plummets: HILDA survey

From The Real Estate Conversation

Renters are quickly becoming a growing demographic in Australia, as fresh research reveals the proportion of Australian renters becoming homeowners has nosedived.

In news that will hardly come as a surprise to most millennials, the number of Australian renters eventually becoming homeowners has plummeted over the last 15 years – particularly for those between the ages of 18 and 24.

The latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey found the overall proportion of people living in rental accomodation has increased by 23 per cent since 2001 to 31.3 per cent in 2016.

Undoubtedly as a result of this, the survey correspondingly found people aged between 15 and 24 are choosing to live with their parents longer.

Melbourne Institute deputy director and report co-author Roger Wilkins told WLLIAMS MEDIA the findings from the survey highlights the plight of renters.

“Renters, particularly younger ones, are finding it increasingly harder to achieve home ownership,” Wilkins said.

According to the HILDA survey, renters were far more likely to be under housing or financial stress than homeowners.

Source: HILDA Survey

Findings from the survey show renting has declined since 2011 for the 25 to 34 age group.

“But this is not because they are more likely to be home owners, however. Rather, as with the trend for the 15 to 24 age group, it reflects the trend towards remaining in the parental home, which is often owner-occupied, until older ages,” the report said.

Over the survey period, which began in 2001 and tracks over 17,500 people across 9,500 households, the number of renters aged between 18 and 24 transitioning into home ownership has dropped massively, from 13.5 per cent down to just 7.5 per cent.

The declining rates of home ownership demonstrate the growing evidence of ‘intergenerational inequality’.

Source: HILDA survey

“There has been a growth in inequality across the generations, and this is very much tied to home ownership,” Wilkins said.

Despite this, research from Westpac shows more millennials than ever are saving up for their first property.

The data, released earlier this year, shows the highest number of first home buyer loans in March and April 2018, compared to the same period in the previous two years.

Kathryn Carpenter, Westpac’s Head of Savings, told WILLIAMS MEDIA that first home buyers are being diligent with their savings and digging deep to save for a home.

Related reading: Advice for first home buyers after new research shows most are clueless about buying property: ME Bank

“Millennials are often depicted as a generation more focused on life experiences and living in the ‘now’. However, our research shows that many are in fact taking saving for a home deposit seriously and prioritising it above other goals including travel or lifestyle,” Carpenter said.

“It is great to see our millennial customers making the most of their savings plans, and the timing could not be better with the current cooling of the property market.”

Source: HILDA survey

The research also revealed the younger end of the millennial spectrum (18-24) are already starting to save for a home.

“Our data shows reaching 25 appears to be a key tipping point for customers moving from thinking about saving for a home, to seriously saving for one”, commented Carpenter.

Dion Tolley, a real estate agent from Place Bulimba, told WILLIAMS MEDIA he has started to see more first home buyers entering the market.

“The investor market has pretty much left in the last year, given the investor squeeze from the banks, and the pressure they are putting on with lending requirements. Also with the changes to stamp duty concession at $499,000, we are definitely seeing more first home buyers entering the market along with those interest rates. As the concession has been extended for 12 months, more first home buyers are moving into the market instead of renting,” Tolley said.

“I think most people are sick of paying off investors mortgages and want to own their own homes.

“Most first home buyers typically purchase between the $350,000 to $499,000 threshold, and will typically go for the two-bedroom, two-bathroom, one car apartments. Established properties are more consistently snapped up than off the plan apartments.

“It has usually taken most of my clients who are first home buyers a couple of years to save up a decent deposit. Their parents will use the equity from their own home to tip them over that 20 per cent threshold to avoid lenders mortgage insurance because that does add on a fair whack to the weekly mortgage repayments,” he said.

Home Price Falls Are Just Starting (…More To Come)

Today we look at the current home price dynamics, as we are still seeing the property sprukiers saying that, first now that prices have fallen, it’s a great buying time and second, that prices will stay high because of the lack of supply. Neither of these statements are true.

The Domain quarterly house price data to June 2018, suggests that in Sydney the average house price is $1,144,217 and has dropped 1.46% in the past quarter.  But the averages tell us nothing, as many suburbs are down more than 10% in the past year. For example, in Petersham, the median house price is $1,367,500, and has fallen by 15.2% since June 2017. In Chatswood the average house is down 11.1%. But the real damage is being done in the apartment market, with Milsons Point units at an average price of $1,480,000 and down 22.9%, followed by Lewisham at $697,500 down 22.4% and Ultimio at $730,000 down 13.1%. All these suburbs have been subject to significant numbers of new high-rise property investors, and now many will be well under water.

There was a very timely article in The Conversation today from Rachel Ong, Professor of Economics, School of Economics and Finance, Curtin University. She makes the point that rents have hardly risen at all over the past decade, siganlling no lack in property supply.

Overall, rent increases are clearly not keeping pace with soaring property prices in all major capital cities in Australia. So claims that a housing shortage is the principal cause of a lack of affordable housing are unfounded. Supply-side solutions, while important, will need to be targeted directly at low-income groups who find it difficult to compete in private rental markets to meet housing needs.

On the other hand, successive governments have offered preferential tax treatments of housing assets. These have encouraged a significant build-up of wealth in housing assets. Some of these favourable tax advantages have undoubtedly been capitalised into rising property prices. That has made it harder and harder for renters to break into the home ownership market. These are structural problems embedded within our tax policy settings. Hence, their impacts on house prices will not magically disappear any time soon unless policymakers are willing to undertake meaningful tax reform that shifts the emphasis away from treating housing as a commodity back to affordable housing as a fundamental right of all Australians.

And I would add to the mix, too easy credit, also helped to drive prices higher, as we have discussed before. Plus, we note the average number of families per dwelling has not moved for years, suggesting that supply it simply not the problem.  Og is correct, the policy settings are wrong, and by the way if Labor did crimp negative gearing, as they have said they would, thill will put further downward pressure on prices in the investment sector.

But this leads to two important observations, first that there is no supply limited floor to home prices, they will fall further in the months ahead, as credit continues to be tight with more new stock coming on stream, and this despite the current migration rates. Second, as more investors in particular see their capital values sliding, they will have to decide whether to cut their losses and sell into a falling market (which will drive prices lower) or hold and lose more value. All this points to prices lower for longer, which really highlights how out of key those property sprukiers really are. Remember the old warning, prices can fall as well as rise, and we are seeing this in spades at the moment. I continue to think 2019 will be the crunch year.

 

Rentals Under The Microscope – Part 2

We look at the latest AHURI report

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Changes In The Private Rental Sector – AHURI

AHURI is a national independent research network with an expert not-for-profit research management company, AHURI Limited, at its centre. AHURI undertakes evidence-based policy development on a range of priority policy topics that are of interest to our audience groups, including housing and labour markets, urban growth and renewal, planning and infrastructure development, housing supply and affordability, homelessness, economic productivity, and social cohesion and wellbeing.

The have just published a report – “Navigating a changing private rental
sector: opportunities and challenges for low-income renters“, utilising data from both HILDA,  and other sources and using Clapham’s (2005) ‘housing pathways’ approach. As well as presenting data they also recommend a number of policy reforms.

This included HILDA data from 2015, which whilst dated now, highlights the issues in the low-income renter sector.

They say that the Private Rental Sector:

… has been expanding and transforming in a number of ways over the past decade as renters and investors/landlords adapt to rising house prices and rents, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne markets. At the low end of the sector, key developments have been the entry and expansion of the role of online platforms and community agency intermediaries in facilitating access to and tenancy management of private rental rooms and dwellings. The profile of renters is becoming more diverse as long-term renting continues to increase across all income groups, generating high competition for the limited dwellings that are affordable on a low income. The profile of investors/landlords and the lease lengths they choose to set for rooms and dwellings is also more varied.

They find that:

The accessibility and affordability of dwellings at the low end of the PRS undoubtedly remains the central issue for vulnerable groups of renters. In seeking to understand how low-income renters navigate changing PRS institutions, we first examine their individual and household income profile, drawing on existing HILDA and Journeys Home data. This background analysis reveals the importance of understanding the connection between individual and household income for low-income renters, beyond existing measures of affordability stress at the household level, which can conceal the difficulties faced by individuals as they navigate access to the PRS. Factors to be considered include the interim solutions individuals may seek when locked out of formal rental pathways (such as more informal or supported pathways into the PRS), and the consequences of persistently low individual and household incomes over time.

 

Applying an individual–household income typology within the HILDA data we find that:

  • more than half (55%) of low-income (Q1–Q2) individuals in a low-income (Q1–Q2) household who are renting privately remain in this household group over a five-year period
  • this group of private renters is most likely to make a transition into social housing and is less likely to move, but when they do move it is typically ‘forced’ (i.e. their property is no longer available to rent)
  • low-income renters are least able, in terms of personal savings, to afford the upfront and relocation costs of a move.
    In examining formal, informal and supported rental arrangements of individuals who have experience of or are at risk of homelessness, drawing on the Journeys Home longitudinal survey, we find the following.
  • Individuals and households in the lowest 20 per cent of the income distribution (Q1) are least likely to rent in the formal PRS, with over 70 per cent reporting a lack of affordable housing as an obstacle to finding more secure housing. The main type of living arrangements for those with Q1 individual (40%) and Q1 household (31%) incomes was renting from friends and family.
  • Among Q1 individuals renting in the formal PRS, the main transition between consecutive waves of the HILDA data was to move into an informal arrangement where they rent privately from friends and family (24%).
  • Transitions in individual income groups showed that 70 per cent of Q1 individuals and 74 per cent of Q2 individuals remained in the same income group over the data collection period (2011–14).

They state:

The formal institutions within the PRS designed to overcome barriers to accessing and managing tenancies for low-income renters have not kept up with the pace of change occurring within informal rental living arrangements. Any reforms to existing formal institutions intended to deliver better outcomes for private renters on a low-income must grapple with an increasingly complex and fragmented PRS. There is a clear need for centralised forms of assistance delivered via the statutory income system of support, but also a need for more devolved initiatives that can target informal and supported pathways through state and local government tenancy regulation and policy intervention. Within this framing, policy reform should take into account the following:

  • Centralised reforms of rental housing assistance and regulation must seek to redress the growing imbalance in horizontal equity (treating those with similar incomes and wealth the same) and vertical equity (reducing the divide between those at the top and bottom of the income and wealth distribution). This includes reviewing the adequacy of wages, statutory incomes and rental assistance in view of rising costs of living.
  • There is clear evidence that the informal pathway into the PRS is expanding through the reach of online platforms to exploit and disrupt formal paths to access and management. Regulation of informal rental practices, particularly in the context of online intermediaries and the growth of room rentals, must ensure that supply and access to urgent housing is not impeded, whilst also ensuring that tenants have adequate recourse to live in safe and secure rental housing.
  • As the community sector expands its focus, there is growing capacity to establish more formal and enduring institutions at the low end of the PRS via a supported pathway delivered through an expanded community housing and welfare sector, in a similar manner to the social rental agencies developed in Belgium (see, for example, Parkinson and Parsell 2018). However, existing policy assumptions surrounding time-limited supported housing in the PRS, including financial subsidies through head-leasing initiatives, are highly problematic for those whose individual and household incomes remain low over time. A
    AHURI Final Report No. 302 87
    viable supported pathway into the PRS will require appropriate incentives for landlords to set their rents to be comparable with social housing rentals.
  • The emergence of different types of landlords (offering properties and rooms on a short- through to long-term basis), combined with the expanded reach of online platforms, provides opportunities for policy makers to assume a more direct role in better matching landlords with tenants. This includes targeting of landlord financial and taxation incentives to encourage supply of a mix of leasing options, dwelling types and locations at the low end of the market.

The findings and directions outlined in this report, together with those from an international and national institutional review of sector change and innovation, will inform the broader Inquiry report on The future of the private rental sector to provide a more detailed blueprint for institutional reform.

What Australia can learn from overseas about the future of rental housing

From The Conversation.

When we talk about rental housing in Australia, we often make comparisons with renting overseas. Faced with insecure tenancies and unaffordable home ownership, we sometimes try to envisage European-style tenancies being imported here.

And, over the past year, there has been a surge of enthusiasm for developing a sector of large-scale institutional landlords, modelled on the UK’s build-to-rent sector or “multi-family” housing in the US.

Our review of the private rental sectors of ten countries in Australasia, Europe and North America identified innovations in rental housing policies and markets Australia might try to emulate – and avoid. International comparisons also give a different perspective on aspects of Australia’s own rental housing institutions that might otherwise be taken for granted.

Not everyone in Europe rents

In nine of the ten countries we reviewed, private rental is the second-largest tenure after owner-occupation. Only in Germany do more households rent privately than own their housing. Most of the European countries we reviewed have higher rates of home ownership than Australia.

In most of the European and North American countries in our study, single people and lower-income households and apartments are heavily represented in the private rental sector. Higher-income households, families with kids, and detached houses are represented much more in owner-occupation. It’s less uneven in Australia: more houses, kids and higher-income households are in private rental.

Two key potential implications follow from this.

First, it suggests a high degree of integration between the Australian private rental and owner-occupier sectors, and that policy settings and market conditions applying to one will be transmitted readily to the other.

So, policies that give preferential treatment to owner-occupied housing will also induce purchase of housing for rental, and rental housing investor activity will directly affect prices and accessibility in the owner-occupied sector.

It also heightens the prospect of investment in both sectors falling simultaneously, with little established institutional capacity for countercyclical investment that makes necessary increases in ongoing supply.

A second implication relates to equality. Australian households of similar composition and similar incomes differ in their housing tenure – and, considering the traditional value placed on owner-occupation, this may not be by choice.

This suggests housing tenure may figure strongly in the subjective experience of inequality. It raises the question of whether housing is a primary driver of inequality, and not the outcome of difference or inequality in other aspects of life.

The rise of large corporate landlords

In almost all of the countries we reviewed, the ownership of private rental housing is dominated by individuals with relatively small holdings. Only in Sweden are housing companies the dominant type of landlord.

However, most countries also have a sector of large corporate landlords. In some countries, these landlords are very large. For example, America’s five largest corporate landlords own about 420,000 properties in total. Germany’s largest landlord, Vonovia, has more than 330,000 properties alone.

These landlords’ origins vary. Germany’s arose from massive sell-offs of municipal housing and industry-related housing in the early 2000s.

In the US, multi-family (apartment) landlords have been around for decades. And in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, they have been joined by a new sector of single-family (detached house) landlords that have rapidly acquired large portfolios from bulk purchases of foreclosed, formerly owner-occupied homes.

In these countries and elsewhere, the rise of largest corporate landlords has been controversial. Germany’s have a poor record of relations with tenants – to the extent of being the subject of popular protests in the 2000s – and their practice of characterising repairs as improvements to justify rent increases.

American housing advocates have voiced concern about “the rise of the corporate landlord” – especially in the single-family sector, where there’s some evidence that they more readily terminate tenancies.

These landlords also don’t build much housing. They are most active in renovating (for higher rents), merging with one another, and – especially in the US – developing innovative financial instruments such as “rental-backed securities”.

“Institutional landlords” are now a standing item on the Australian housing policy agenda. Considering the activities of large corporate landlords internationally, we should get specific about the sort of institutional landlords we really want, how we will get them, and how we will ensure they deliver desired housing outcomes.

Policymakers and housing advocates have, for years, looked to the community housing sector as the prime candidate for this role. They envisage its transformation into an affordable housing industry that works across the sector toward a wide range of policy outcomes in housing supply, affordability, security, social housing renewal and community development.

With interest in the prospect of build-to-rent and multifamily housing rising in the property development and finance sectors, there is a risk that affordable housing policy may be colonised by for-profit interests.

The development of a for-profit large corporate landlord sector may be desirable for greater professionalisation and efficiencies in the management of tenancies and properties. However, this should not come at the expense of a mission-oriented affordable housing industry that makes a distinctive contribution to housing outcomes.

Bringing it home

Looking at the policy settings in the ten countries, we found some surprising results and strange bedfellows.

For example, Germany – which has had a remarkably long period of stable house prices – has negative gearing provisions and tax exemptions for capital gains, much like Australia. But, in Australia, these policies are blamed for driving speculation and booming prices.

And while the UK taxes landlords more heavily than most other countries, it has the fastest-growing private rental sector of the countries we reviewed.

However, these challenging findings should not be taken to diminish the explanatory power or effectiveness of these settings in each country’s housing policy. Rather, they show the necessity of considering taxation and other policy settings in interaction with each other and in wider systemic contexts.

So, for example, Germany’s conservative housing finance practices, and regulation of rents, may mean the speculative potential of negative gearing and tax-free capital gains isn’t activated there.

Strategy in Australia for its private rental sector should join consideration of finance, taxation, supply and demand-side subsidies and regulation with the objective of making private rental housing outcomes competitive with other sectors.

Author: Chris Martin, Research Fellow, City Housing, UNSW