Reserve Bank NZ – Page 8 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

RBNZ Cuts Cash Rate to 2.25%

The NZ Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.

The outlook for global growth has deteriorated since the December Monetary Policy Statement, due to weaker growth in China and other emerging markets, and slower growth in Europe. This is despite extraordinary monetary accommodation, and further declines in interest rates in several countries. Financial market volatility has increased, reflected in higher credit spreads. Commodity prices remain low.

Domestically, the dairy sector faces difficult challenges, but domestic growth is expected to be supported by strong inward migration, tourism, a pipeline of construction activity and accommodative monetary policy.

The trade-weighted exchange rate is more than 4 percent higher than projected in December, and a decline would be appropriate given the weakness in export prices.

House price inflation in Auckland has moderated in recent months, but house prices remain at high levels and additional housing supply is needed. Housing market pressures have been building in some other regions.

There are many risks to the outlook. Internationally, these are to the downside and relate to the prospects for global growth, particularly around China, and the outlook for global financial markets. The main domestic risks relate to weakness in the dairy sector, the decline in inflation expectations, the possibility of continued high net immigration, and pressures in the housing market.

Headline inflation remains low, mostly due to continued falls in prices for fuel and other imports. Annual core inflation, which excludes the effects of transitory price movements, is higher, at 1.6 percent.

While long-run inflation expectations are well-anchored at 2 percent, there has been a material decline in a range of inflation expectations measures. This is a concern because it increases the risk that the decline in expectations becomes self-fulfilling and subdues future inflation outcomes.

Headline inflation is expected to move higher over 2016, but take longer to reach the target range. Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data

RBNZ Highlights Unprecedented Divergence in House Prices

The Reserve Bank NZ, released a Bulletin today which looks at house price trends across New Zealand. Since mid-2012, Auckland house prices have increased 52 percent, but house prices in the rest of New Zealand have increased only 11 percent. The extent of this divergence is unprecedented.

Since 1981, house prices in Auckland have increased much more than those in the rest of New Zealand. House prices in North Island provinces – where house prices have grown the least – are only 63 percent higher than they were in 1981. By contrast, Auckland house prices are 352 percent higher.

Figure 14 shows Auckland house prices as a ratio to those in the rest of New Zealand. High average rates of house price inflation in Auckland relative to the rest of the country have seen this ratio trend upwards since 1981. The extent of the increase in this ratio since 2009 is unprecedented.

An upward trend in this ratio might be expected over time, but it is not clear how steep that trend should be, whether it is time-varying, or whether it will persist. Notwithstanding that uncertainty, the ratio is currently 22 percent above a simple filtered trend. A divergence of this magnitude is also evident when Auckland is compared with urban centres only. This means that the upward trend has not been driven by a more general divergence between house prices in urban and provincial centres, but is an Auckland-specific phenomenon.

In previous instances when the ratio has increased relatively quickly – namely, during the late 1980s and mid-1990s – this has subsequently been followed by a period of lower growth. In 1987, house prices in Auckland increased while they were flat in the rest of the country. Then in subsequent years, Auckland house prices fell while those in the rest of New Zealand continued increasing. In the upswing of the 1990s, Auckland house prices increased relative to the rest of the country, and stayed elevated until the latter part of the 2000s cycle, at which time house prices in the rest of the country increased at a faster pace than those in Auckland.

DFA believes that the same forces are at work here, as in Sydney, London and other metro centres. Lack of supply, high levels of finance available, investors active, foreign investors active, and weak regulatory control. The perfect storm.

NZ Reserve Bank Holds Rate

The NZ Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5 percent. The statement by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler highlights the risks in the outlook.

Uncertainty about the strength of the global economy has increased due to weaker growth in the developing world and concerns about China and other emerging markets. Prices for a range of commodities, particularly oil, remain weak. Financial market volatility has increased, and global inflation remains low.

The domestic economy softened during the first half of 2015 driven by the lower terms of trade. However, growth is expected to increase in 2016 as a result of continued strong net immigration, tourism, a solid pipeline of construction activity, and the lift in business and consumer confidence.

In recent weeks there has been some easing in financial conditions, as the New Zealand dollar exchange rate and market interest rates have declined. A further depreciation in the exchange rate is appropriate given the ongoing weakness in export prices.

House price inflation in Auckland remains a financial stability risk. There are signs that the rate of increase may be moderating, but it is too early to tell. House price pressures have been building in some other regions.

There are many risks around the outlook. These relate to the prospects for global growth, particularly around China, global financial market conditions, dairy prices, net immigration, and pressures in the housing market.

Headline CPI inflation remains low, mainly due to falling fuel prices. However, annual core inflation, which excludes temporary price movements, is consistent with the target range at 1.6 percent. Inflation expectations remain stable.

Headline inflation is expected to increase over 2016, but take longer to reach the target range than previously expected. Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Some further policy easing may be required over the coming year to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.

NZ Housing Risks Rising

New Zealand’s financial system continues to perform well despite a deterioration in the outlook for global financial stability and increased risks related to the dairy and housing sectors, NZ Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler, said today when releasing the Bank’s November Financial Stability Report.

“Global economic growth has softened over the past six months, and uncertainty over the path of economic and financial adjustment in China has helped to depress commodity prices and added to financial market uncertainty. Interest rates at historic lows are encouraging higher leverage, leading to a build-up in risk in international asset markets. This environment creates risks for the New Zealand banking system, which remains reliant on the global markets for funding.

“The dairy sector faces a second consecutive season of weak cash flow due to low international dairy commodity prices. Prices have shown some recovery since August, but many indebted farms are coming under increased pressure, which would be exacerbated if low dairy prices are sustained or dairy farm prices fall significantly.

“House price growth in Auckland has increased strongly with house price-to-income ratios in the region now comparable to those seen in some of the world’s most expensive cities. Rising investor activity has been an important driver of price developments, and international evidence suggests that investor loans have a higher tendency to default in the event of a major downturn in the housing market.

“A sharp downturn could challenge financial stability, given the large exposure of the banking system to the Auckland housing market. While it is still too early to judge the effect of recent policy changes, they are expected to help moderate pressure on Auckland house prices, and will improve the resilience of bank balance sheets to a housing downturn.”

Deputy Governor, Grant Spencer, said that “Banks hold strong capital and liquidity buffers and have maintained their profitability with further reductions in cost-to-income ratios. Lending growth to households and businesses has picked up and is being funded mainly through higher domestic deposits.

“The banks are working with dairy farmers experiencing difficulty, and it is important that they continue to take a medium-term view when assessing farm viability. The banks’ losses on dairy exposures are expected to be manageable but banks need to ensure that they set aside realistic provisions for the likely increase in problem loans.

“New rules on Auckland residential investor loans came in to force on 1 November. The bulk of these loans are now required to have a loan-to-value ratio (LVR) of no more than 70 percent. Banks are also now required to put residential property investment loans in a separate asset class and hold more capital against them.

“LVR restrictions have been eased outside of Auckland where housing market activity has been more subdued. However, the Bank is closely monitoring the recent rises in house price inflation in some areas such as Hamilton and Tauranga.

“The Reserve Bank has a number of other regulatory initiatives in train. Public consultation has recently closed on a stocktake of banking regulations and a summary of submissions will be published shortly. We have recently released a consultation paper proposing changes to the outsourcing policy for banks. And we are also well advanced on an improved oversight regime for payment and settlement systems.”

NZ Cash Rate Unchanged

The NZ Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75 percent.

Global economic growth is below average and global inflation is low despite highly stimulatory monetary policy. Financial market volatility has eased in recent weeks, but concerns remain about the prospects for slower growth in China and East Asia especially. Financial markets are also uncertain about the timing and effects of monetary policy tightening in the United States and possible easings elsewhere.

The sharp fall in dairy prices since early 2014 continues to weigh on domestic farm incomes. However, growth in the services sector and construction remains robust, driven by net immigration, tourism, and low interest rates. Global dairy prices have risen in recent weeks, contributing to improved household and business sentiment. However, it is too early to say whether these recent improvements will be sustained.

House price inflation in Auckland remains strong, posing a financial stability risk. While residential building is accelerating, it will take some time to correct the supply shortfall. The Government has introduced new tax requirements and the Reserve Bank’s new LVR restrictions on investor lending come into effect on 1 November.

CPI inflation remains below the 1 to 3 percent target range, largely reflecting a combination of earlier strength in the New Zealand dollar and the 60 percent fall in world oil prices since mid-2014.

Annual CPI inflation is expected to return well within the target range by early 2016, as the effects of earlier petrol price falls drop out of the CPI calculation and in response to the fall in the exchange rate since April. However, the exchange rate has been moving higher since September, which could, if sustained, dampen tradables sector activity and medium-term inflation. This would require a lower interest rate path than would otherwise be the case.

Continued economic expansion is expected to result in some pick-up in non-tradables inflation, despite the moderating effects of strong labour supply growth.

To ensure that future average CPI inflation settles near the middle of the target range, some further reduction in the OCR seems likely. This will continue to depend on the emerging flow of economic data. It is appropriate at present to watch and wait.

NZ’s Estimation of a Neutral Interest Rate

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has today published a paper in its Analytical Notes series on Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate. In the paper they run through a number of different methods to derive this indicator rate, and observe the mean is 4.3%. Strikingly this mean rate has been falling for a number of years, and is a further indicator of lower rates around the world.

It is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to understand the extent to which current monetary policy settings are either contractionary or expansionary with respect to the macroeconomy. As a benchmark for this analysis, the Bank estimates a level of the nominal 90-day bank bill rate that it believes is neither expansionary nor contractionary. This benchmark interest rate is termed the ‘neutral interest rate’.

The neutral interest rate is unobservable and significant judgement is required to assess its current level. The Bank continually monitors the economy for possible changes in the neutral interest rate. This includes a broad assessment of consumer attitudes towards debt and risk, the economy’s potential growth rate, and international developments. Signs that the neutral rate may be changing are initially incorporated into the Bank’s risk assessment when setting policy. If the economy shows clear signs of a change in the neutral interest rate, the Bank will formally change its estimate in its various modelling frameworks.

The Bank looks at a range of model-, survey-, and market-based estimates of the neutral rate to help inform this ongoing judgement. This paper outlines the methodology the Bank uses to arrive at these model-, survey-, and market-based estimates. The Bank currently uses five key methods to help inform judgements about the neutral interest rate. These include:

• a neo-classical growth model;
• implied market expectations of long-horizon interest rates;
• analysts’ expectations of long-horizon interest rates;
• analysts’ expectations of long-horizon annual nominal economic growth; and,
• a small New Keynesian model.

These estimates suggest the nominal neutral 90-day interest rate sits between 3.8 and 4.9 percent currently. The mean of these indicators is 4.3 percent.

The Bank currently judges that the nominal neutral 90-day interest rate sits at 4.5 percent – within the range of estimates and close to the mean of these estimates. This implies that current monetary policy settings are expansionary, although these models highlight some emerging risk that the neutral interest rate is falling further. The Bank will continue to use these five methods, along with broader monitoring of the economy, to help identify any possible changes in the neutral interest rate. Furthermore, the Bank will continue to look for ways to improve its estimates, including the development of other estimation methodologies.

RBNZ Cuts Cash Rate

The New Zealand Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.

Global economic growth remains moderate, but the outlook has been revised down due mainly to weaker activity in the developing economies. Concerns about softer growth, particularly in China and East Asia, have led to elevated volatility in financial markets and renewed falls in commodity prices. The US economy continues to expand. Financial markets remain uncertain as to the timing and impact of an expected tightening in US monetary policy.

Domestically, the economy is adjusting to the sharp decline in export prices, and the consequent fall in the exchange rate. Activity has also slowed due to the plateauing of construction activity in Canterbury, and a weakening in business and consumer confidence. The economy is now growing at an annual rate of around 2 percent.

Several factors continue to support growth, including robust tourism, strong net immigration, the large pipeline of construction activity in Auckland and other regions, and, importantly, the lower interest rates and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.

While the lower exchange rate supports the export and import-competing sectors, further depreciation is appropriate, given the sharpness of the decline in New Zealand’s export commodity prices.

House prices in Auckland continue to increase rapidly and are becoming more unsustainable. Residential construction is increasing in Auckland, but it will take some time to correct the imbalances in the housing market.

Headline CPI inflation remains below the 1 to 3 percent target due to the previous strength in the New Zealand dollar and the halving of world oil prices since mid- 2014. Headline inflation is expected to return well within the target range by early 2016, as the earlier petrol price decline drops out of the annual inflation calculation, and as the exchange rate depreciation passes through into higher tradables prices. Considerable uncertainty exists around the timing and magnitude of the exchange rate pass-through.

A reduction in the OCR is warranted by the softening in the economy and the need to keep future average CPI inflation near the 2 percent target midpoint. At this stage, some further easing in the OCR seems likely. This will depend on the emerging flow of economic data.

RBNZ – Investor LVR limits to reduce financial system risk

The Reserve Bank New Zealand expects new lending limits for Auckland property investors will reduce heightened financial system risk, and help moderate the Auckland housing market cycle, Deputy Governor Grant Spencer said today.

Speaking to the Northern Club in Auckland, Mr Spencer said that the resurgence in Auckland house prices over the past year has increased the Bank’s concerns about financial stability risks.

Mr Spencer said that Auckland prices have risen a further 24 percent over the past year, compared to 3 percent for the rest of the country.

“This has stretched the price-to-income ratio for the Auckland region to 9, double the ratio for the rest of New Zealand, and places Auckland among the world’s most expensive cities.

“New housing supply has been growing, but nowhere near fast enough to make a dent in the existing housing shortage. In the meantime, net migration is at record levels, and investors continue to expand their influence in the Auckland market.”

Mr Spencer said that investors are now accounting for 41 percent of Auckland house purchases, up 8 percentage points since late 2013. “We have seen a particular increase in purchases by smaller investors and investors reliant on credit. Half of the new lending to investors is being written at loan-to-value ratios of over 70 percent.

“This trend is increasing the risk inherent in the Auckland market. The increasing investor presence is likely to amplify the housing cycle, and worsen the potential damage from a downturn, both to the financial system and the broader economy.”

Mr Spencer said that macro-prudential policy can assist in moderating the risks to the financial sector and broader economy associated with Auckland’s housing market.

“A sharp fall in house prices has the potential to accentuate weakness in the macro-economy, particularly if banks tighten lending conditions excessively, leading to greater declines in asset markets and larger loan losses for the banks. A key goal of macro-prudential policy is to ensure that the banking system maintains sufficient prudential buffers to avoid this sort of contractionary behaviour in a downturn.

“Modifications to the Reserve Bank’s LVR policy, announced in May, are targeted specifically at Auckland residential investors. The speed limit has been eased for the rest of the country where housing markets are not subject to the same pressures.”

Mr Spencer said that the Bank recognises that low interest rates are contributing to housing demand pressures, and this is a factor the Bank takes into consideration when setting monetary policy. “However, the current weakness in export prices, economic activity and CPI inflation means that interest rate increases are likely to be off the table for some time,” he said.

He noted that the Bank’s macro-prudential policy is one of many measures aimed at reducing the imbalances in the Auckland housing market.

“Much more rapid progress in producing new housing is needed in order to get on top of this issue. Tax policy is also an important driver, and we welcome the changes announced in the 2015 Budget, including the two year bright-line test, the proposed non-resident withholding tax and the requirement for tax numbers to be provided by house purchasers.”

Reserve Bank NZ Confirms Tighter Investment Loans Policy

The Reserve Bank today published a summary of submissions and final policy positions in regards to changes in the Loan to Value Ratio restriction rules (LVRs), and the asset classification of residential property investment loans in the Capital Adequacy Framework.

As announced in May, the Reserve Bank is altering existing LVR rules to focus on rental property investors in the Auckland region. The alterations mean that borrowers will generally need a 30 percent deposit for a mortgage loan secured against Auckland rental property.

The new rules will become effective on 1 November 2015. This is one month later than initially proposed, to enable banks to adapt their systems for the new rules.

Restrictions on loans to owner occupiers in Auckland will continue to apply, with banks allowed to make up to 10 percent of their new mortgage lending to such borrowers with LVRs exceeding 80 percent.

Restrictions outside Auckland are being eased after 1 November. Banks will be able to make up to 15 percent of their new mortgage lending to borrowers with LVRs exceeding 80 percent, regardless of whether the borrowers are owner occupiers or residential property investors.

The Reserve Bank received feedback via written submissions, and through meetings and workshops with affected banks. The Reserve Bank has modified its proposals in response to feedback about compliance challenges and special cases. The Reserve Bank’s final policy position adopts a 5 percent speed limit for high-LVR loans to Auckland investors, instead of 2 percent as originally proposed. The Reserve Bank is also introducing an exemption for high LVR lending to finance leaky building remediation and similar cases.

RBNZ Moves Closer To Changing Capital Rules For Investment Loans

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand published the results of its consultation on the proposal to vary the capital risk weighting of investment versus owner occupied loans. Stakeholders are invited to provide feedback on the proposed wording changes to the Reserve Bank’s capital adequacy requirements by 19 June 2015, with a view to implemention by October.

They cite considerable evidence that investment loans are inherently more risky:

the fact that investment risks are pro-cyclical
that for a given LVR defaults are higher on investment loans
investors were an obvious driver of downturn defaults if they were identified as investors on the basis of being owners of multiple properties
a substantial fall in house prices would leave the investor much more heavily underwater relative to their labour income so diminishing their incentive to continue to service the mortgage (relative to alternatives such as entering bankruptcy)
some investors are likely to not own their own home directly (it may be in a trust and not used as security, or they may rent the home they live in), thus is likely to increase the incentive to stop servicing debt if it exceeds the value of their investment property portfolio
as property investor loans are disproportionately interest-only borrowers, they tend to remain nearer to the origination LVR, whereas owner-occupiers will tend to reduce their LVR through principal repayments. Evidence suggests that delinquency on mortgage loans is highest in the years immediately after the loan is signed. As equity in a property increases through principal repayments, the risk of a particular loan falls. However, this does not occur to the same extent with interest-only loans.
investors may face additional income volatility related to the possibility that the rental market they are operating in weakens in a severe recession (if tenants are in arrears or are hard to replace when they leave, for example). Furthermore, this income volatility is more closely correlated with the valuation of the underlying asset, since it is harder to sell an investment property that can’t find a tenant.

Although the Basel guidelines for IRB banks envisage that loans to residential property investors be treated as non-retail lending, the same is not the case for banks operating on the standardised approach. The Basel guidelines consider all mortgage lending within the standardised approach as retail lending within the same sub-asset class. However, the guidelines also provide regulators with ample flexibility to implement them according to the needs of their respective jurisdictions. There are three reasons why any consideration as to whether to group loans to residential property investors in New Zealand should also include standardised banks.

the different risk profile of property investors applies irrespective of whether the lending bank is a bank operating on the standardised approach or on the internal models approach.
macro-prudential considerations include standardised banks as well as internal models banks. Prepositioning banks for a potential macro-prudential restriction on lending to residential property investors has to involve all locally incorporated banks.
risk weights on housing loans are comparatively high in New Zealand and, more crucially, the gap in mortgage lending risk weights between standardised and IRB banks is not as high as it might be in many other jurisdictions. In order to maintain the relativities between the two groups of banks for residential investment property lending, it would be useful to also include standardised banks in the policy considerations.

So the bank is proposing to impose different risk weightings on investment and owner occupied loans, for both IRB and standard capital models.

The Reserve Bank would expect banks to continue to use their current PD models until such time that new models have been developed or banks have been able to verify that the current models can also be applied to property investment loans. Through the cycle PD rates appear broadly similar to those of owner-occupiers if the evidence from overseas also holds for New Zealand, although it is not clear whether the risk drivers are the same between the two groups of mortgage borrowers. The Reserve Bank would therefore expect banks to assess in due course whether their current PD mortgage models can be used for the new asset class or whether new or amended versions of the current models should be used.

For standardized banks, the Reserve Bank has to prescribe the risk weights as per the relevant capital adequacy requirements. Those requirements currently link a loan’s risk weight to its LVR at origination. Maintaining that link, the Reserve Bank proposed higher risk weights per LVR band

These calibrations would lead to a higher capital outcome for residential property investment mortgages compared to owner-occupier loans. However, the capital outcome would be below that of using the income producing real estate asset class and, in the Reserve Bank’s opinion, reflect the mix of property investment borrowers that the new asset class would entail.

Stakeholders are invited to provide feedback on the proposed wording changes to the Reserve Bank’s capital adequacy requirements by 19 June 2015.

This further tilts the playing field away from property investment loans.