Tag: Retail Turnover

Australian retail turnover rose 0.8 per cent in February 2019, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a rise of 0.1 per cent in January 2019.

The trend estimate rose 0.2% in February 2019. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2019, and a rise of 0.2% in December 2018. This a more reliable indicator. Compared to February 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent, and is higher than average wages growth.

ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, Ben Faulkner said: “There were improved results across most industries with rises in food retailing (0.8 per cent), department stores (3.5 per cent), household goods retailing (1.1 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.6 per cent). Other retailing (0.0 per cent) and cafes, restaurant and takeaway services (0.0 per cent) were relatively unchanged. The rise this month follows subdued results in December 2018 (-0.4 per cent) and January 2019 (0.1 per cent).”

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Queensland (1.4 per cent), New South Wales (0.6 per cent), Victoria (0.8 per cent), Western Australia (0.6 per cent), South Australia (0.7 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.7 per cent) and the Northern Territory (1.4 per cent). There was a fall in Tasmania (-0.7 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in February 2019, following a 0.2 per cent rise in January 2019. Compared to February 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in February 2019, which is unchanged from January 2019. In February 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.1 per cent to total retail.

Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in November 2018, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a rise of 0.3 per cent in October 2018.

But the more reliable trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in November 2018, following a 0.2 percent rise in October 2018. Compared to November 2017, the trend estimate rose 3.6 per cent.

Monthly Turnover, Current Prices – Trend Estimate

“Household goods retailing (1.2 per cent) led the rises” said Ben Faulkner, Acting Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, “while there was also a notable rise for Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing (1.5 per cent). Both of these industries were impacted by strong promotional activity in the November month, including Black Friday sales.” Rises were also seen in Food retailing (0.2 per cent) and Department stores (0.4 per cent). Other retailing (-0.1 per cent), and Cafes, restaurant and takeaway services retailing (-0.1 per cent), both had minor falls this month.

Online retail turnover contributed 6.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in November 2018, a rise from 5.9 per cent in October 2018. This is the highest level recorded in the series and continues a pattern of increasing online contributions to total sales in November. In November 2017 online retail turnover contributed 5.5 per cent to total retail.

In seasonally adjusted terms there were rises in New South Wales (0.8 per cent), Queensland (0.4 per cent), Western Australia (0.6 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.6 per cent), and Victoria (0.1 per cent). South Australia was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent). There were falls in the Northern Territory (-0.9 per cent), and Tasmania (-0.2 per cent).

The ABS released their Retail Turnover stats for October 2018.  Still looks pretty sluggish. Perhaps Christmas will accelerate the spend. We will see! New South Wales reported a fall, well behind Victoria and Queensland.

They say:

• The trend estimate rose 0.2% in October 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in September 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in August 2018.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% in October 2018. This follows a 0.1% rise in September 2018, and a rise of 0.3% in August 2018.
• In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.5% in October 2018 compared with October 2017.
• The following industries rose in trend terms in October 2018: Food retailing (0.2%), Other retailing (0.5%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.2%). Household goods retailing (-0.1%), and Department Stores (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.
• The following states and territories rose in trend terms in October 2018: Victoria (0.4%), Queensland (0.5%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.3%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.2%). Western Australia was relatively unchanged (0.0%). New South Wales (-0.1%), and the Northern Territory (-0.8%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.9 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in October 2018, a rise from 5.6 per cent in September 2018 and the highest level recorded in the series. In October 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.7 per cent to total retail.

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in August 2018, following a 0.3 percent rise in July 2018. Compared to August 2017, the trend estimate rose 3.4 per cent, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

In trend terms, Other retailing (0.6 per cent) led the rises. Rises were also seen in Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4 per cent), and Food retailing (0.2 per cent). Department stores fell  (-0.1 per cent), and Household goods retailing fell  (-0.2 per cent).

Seasonally adjusted, Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in August 2018, following a relatively unchanged estimate (0.0 per cent) in July 2018.

In trend terms, there were rises in New South Wales (0.3%), Victoria (0.3%), South Australia (0.2%), Queensland (0.2%), Tasmania (0.5%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.3%). Western Australia fell (0.1%), whilst there was a more significant fall in the Northern Territory (-0.5%).

Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in August 2018, a rise from 5.5 per cent in July 2018. In August 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.6 per cent to total retail.

The ABS released the retail trade turnover figures today for July 2018. The noisy seasonally adjusted numbers returned no growth on last month (which had exceed expectations in June). This is what will be reported, I suspect and equates to 2.7% annually.

However, as usual we look beyond the seasonally adjusted series to the trend data, which provides a better longer term indication of what is happening. In fact on an annual basis retail is sitting at 3.1% for the past 12 months, still above both wages growth and inflation, at circa 2%. So we can conclude that households are still spending, but financial pressures are crimping their style. Savings are being raided, and credit extended.  But 3.1% is reasonably healthy, given the state of things.

The data is reported firstly by major category, with Household Goods sitting at 3.8% annually, Food Retailing at 2.7%, Departmental Stores at 2.5%, and Clothing & Footwear at 1.4%.

The state annual data, on the same basis highlights significant contrasts across the country, with Victoria leading the charge at a massive 5.4%, followed by Tasmania at 4.7%, the ACT at 4.2%, NSW 3.7%, South Australia 2.8%, Queensland 1.4% and Western Australia down 0.5%.

We often see a correlation between home price growth and retail, and as a result, we suspect Victoria will slide lower now, given the fact that in the past quarter values fell in VIC.

The mix of low income, and rising costs coupled with the latest home price falls suggests that retail will be struggling ahead, as shops continue to discount heavily to turn trade over. Indeed, the retail turnover data actually tells us very little in terms of margin and profit, and the data from our own SME surveys suggests that it is really tough for many across discretionary categories, while food costs are rising.

Later we will get a read on GDP, but it looks like household consumption will not be providing a significant leg-up to the next set of indicators.

Finally, Online retail turnover contributed 5.5 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in July 2018, a fall from 5.7 per cent in June 2018. In July 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.3 per cent to total retail.

The ABS says the trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in May 2018 following a rise (0.3 per cent) in April 2018. Compared to May 2017, the trend estimate rose 2.8 per cent, so still stronger than wages growth (as people raid savings and put more on credit cards).

Across the categories department stores rose 0.5% on the previous month, thanks to sales being brought forward from June, food retailing was up 0.4%, household goods and other retailing were 0.2% and clothing and footwear rose just 0.1%.

Across the states,  the northern territories rose 0.9, ACT 0.6%, Tasmania 0.5%, New South Wales 0.4%, Victoria 0.3%, Queensland and SOuth Australia 0.1% and there was no change in Western Australia.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in May 2018, a rise from 5.4 per cent in April 2018. In May 2017 online retail turnover contributed 3.9 per cent to total retail.