Tag: Retail Turnover

The ABS released their trade data for January 2015 today. Households are still being cautious about their spending patterns, driven by slow wage growth, rising living costs and falling confidence. The trend estimate rose 0.2% in January 2015. This follows a rise of 0.2% in December 2014 and a rise of 0.3% in November 2014 In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.1% in January 2015 compared with January 2014.

By industry in January, household goods retailing (0.3%), Food retailing (0.1%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.7%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.3%) and Department stores (0.5%). Other retailing (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in January 2015.

By state in January, Queensland (0.4%), Western Australia (0.4%), New South Wales (0.1%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.1%) and the Northern Territory (0.1%). Victoria (0.0%) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.0%) were relatively unchanged in January 2015.

According to eMarketer’s latest estimates of retail sales, Retail ecommerce sales in Australia will rise 14.4% this year to pass $10 billion. In 2014, ecommerce sales in the country increased 17.3% to account for over 4% of total retail sales, and that share will expand to 4.5% in 2015. Low double-digit gains will continue through 2017, and by the end of the forecast period, retail ecommerce sales will total $14.52 billion and represent 5.6% of retail sales in the country.

Australia falls in the middle of the pack in both absolute terms and percentage of total retail ecommerce sales when compared with the other Asia-Pacific countries, behind China, Japan and South Korea and ahead of India and Indonesia.

Interestingly, digital buyer penetration among internet users in Australia is the second highest in Asia-Pacific. eMarketer estimates that 79.4% of internet users in the country will purchase via any digital channel this year, behind only Japan (82.0% penetration). Due to its size, though, Australia has the smallest digital buyer population in Asia-Pacific, at 12.1 million.

Australia’s ecommerce landscape is crowded with international competitors—especially eBay-owned properties—according to October 2014 data from Experian Hitwise Australia. eBay Australia catalogued the highest number of visits, 23.1 million, during the week examined, accounting for 12.9% of retail site visits during that timeframe. The local edition of eBay-owned classifieds site Gumtree was second with 13.3 million visits and a 7.4% share, followed by eBay with 13.2 million for a 7.4% share, and Amazon with 11.6 million for a 6.5% share. [Note: The Australian version of Amazon’s site, Amazon.com.au, sells only ebooks.]

The remaining top 10 ecommerce sites, with visitor shares of around 1% or less, included user-supported deals-posting site OzBargain, consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi Australia and hardware chain Bunnings Warehouse, Apple’s site, Alibaba Group-owned discounts site AliExpress and department store chain Target Australia. The list reflects a landscape dominated by consumer-to-consumer resale sites, alongside options for business-to-consumer transactions.

The latest ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in October 2014, seasonally adjusted, following a rise of 1.3 per cent in September 2014. Analysis shows that the knock on effect from the housing boom is having a positive influence in those states experiencing it.

In seasonally adjusted terms household goods retailing rose 1.4 per cent or $56.9 million in turnover. Other industries which experienced rises were, food retailing (0.5 per cent), department stores (2.0 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.1 per cent) and other retailing (0.2 per cent). This was partially offset by a fall in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-2.1 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms the states which displayed rises were New South Wales (0.7 per cent), Queensland (0.4 per cent), South Australia (1.2 per cent), Western Australia (0.1 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.4 per cent). Victoria remained relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent). This was partially offset by a falls in Tasmania (-1.0 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-0.4 per cent).
Through the year, Australian retail turnover rose 5.7 per cent in October 2014, seasonally adjusted, compared to October 2013.  The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in October 2014. This followed a 0.4 per cent rise in September 2014. Through the year, the trend estimate rose 5.0 per cent in October 2014 compared to October 2013. Total online retail trade, in original terms, rose 9.5 per cent in October 2014 following a rise of 8.7 per cent in September 2014,

The ABS published their Retail Trade data for August. The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.1% in August 2014. This follows a rise of 0.4% in July 2014 and a rise of 0.6% in June 2014. In seasonally adjusted trend terms, Australian turnover rose 4.9% in August 2014 compared with August 2013. Most analysts were expecting around 0.4%, this month, so the result is below expectations.

There are considerable state variations, with Queensland remaining the weakest, and Victoria the strongest amongst the larger states. In terms of the states and territories in August 2014, Northern Territory rose (1.7%), Victoria (0.7%),  Western Australia (0.1%), South Australia (0.0%), Tasmania (0.0%), New South Wales fell  (-0.1%), Australian Capital Territory (-0.4%) and Queensland (-0.6%); all in seasonally adjusted terms.

The industry variations were as follows. Other retailing rose (1.6%), Food retailing (0.3%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2%), Household goods fell (-0.8%) and Department stores (-2.9%) in seasonally adjusted terms.

Many households are keeping their wallets tight shut, we think falling wages in real terms and large mortgages are partly to blame, even at current low interest rates.

The latest ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 0.6 per cent in June 2014, seasonally adjusted, following a fall of 0.3 per cent in May 2014. Turnover rose in household good retailing (1.7 per cent), food retailing (0.5 per cent), other retailing (0.9 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.4 per cent). These rises were partially offset by falls in cafes, restaurant and takeaway food services (-0.6 per cent) and department stores (-0.5 per cent).

Seasonally adjusted turnover rose in New South Wales (0.9 per cent), Victoria (0.6 per cent), Western Australia (1.1 per cent), South Australia (0.5 per cent), Tasmania (1.3 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.3 per cent). Queensland was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent). There was a fall in the Australian Capital Territory (-0.5 per cent). Through the year, Australian retail turnover rose 5.5 per cent in June 2014, seasonally adjusted, compared to June 2013. The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in June 2014. This follows a 0.1 per cent rise in May 2014. Through the year, the trend estimate rose 5.3 per cent in June 2014 compared to June 2013. In seasonally adjusted volume terms, turnover fell 0.2 per cent in the June quarter 2014, following a rise of 1.3 per cent in the March quarter 2014.

Looking at spend per capita, we see it fell a little in June, to $2,887. Looking at the changes over time, we see the trend still dropping, so households are not yet showing strong growth in retail spend – this is because for many, the costs of housing, child care and utility bills are blotting up more of their wallet.