The Budget on Tuesday evening comes at an interesting time in the life of the current Government, as well as for ordinary Australians.
With a year or so to go before the next election which must be held by May 2025 at the latest. (or sooner perhaps if Albo sees a window of opportunity) this would normally be a give-away budget to set the scene. Except that with inflation still strong and being driven by local factors such as wages growth and energy costs, as well as high housing costs thanks to very strong migration, the headroom is limited, at best.
The Announcables so far, which have continued through the weekend, are portraying it as a responsible budget aimed at containing inflation, supporting housing, and quote good for women.
Charlmers said this week his goal was to chart “the responsible middle course between those who want us to slash and burn in the budget, and those who think that it should be some kind of free-for-all of spending”. Others less charitable might say it will contain a wadge of announcables, which sound good, but which are not tackling the real long term issues Australia faces.
Remarkably it seems further tax payer funds will flow to the construction sector. While the Governments goal of 1.2 million well-located homes built in five years starts on 1 July, remember just 12,850 homes were approved for construction in January. This seems a gulf which needs way more than announcables and political party tricks.
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According to a recent report, Australian capital cities are becoming more segregated along socioeconomic lines. And the trend is worst in Sydney. Inequality is rising.
The Conversation published: Our cities are widening the divide between the well-off and the rest. How can we turn this damaging trend around? Written by three researchers from the University of Sydney.
They talked about the so called “latte line”, the infamous, invisible boundary that divides Sydney between the more affluent north-east and the south-west. Historically, people north of the line enjoy better access to jobs and education, and can capitalise on rising property wealth. This has reinforced economic inequality.
Sydney emerged as the most segregated and unequal of the five cities. The latte line is getting stronger. Other cities also showed rising inequality.
Bad policy is creating a more and more unequal society. The traditional idea of Australia as an egalitarian society is dying. The property market is the problem, but Governments are ignoring the consequences, and focussing on “announcables” as we discussed yesterday. We need to do better!
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Those following my regular Property Rants with Edwin will know we have been speculating that there would be budget measures announced next week to help property developers. Well, they could not wait it seems…
The 600,000 plus migrants arriving in Australia this past year are continuing to put more pressure on the housing sector, and helps to explain the fact that rising rents, interest rate hikes and surging living costs in the past few years have inflamed what was already among the world’s least affordable housing rental markets, where record numbers of people can no longer afford to buy after a surge in house prices.
In fact, the federal government wants to find tens of thousands of workers to help build new homes in an attempt to address Australia’s ongoing housing crisis, reacting to pressure from the Construction sector, which already employs about 1.35 million workers across the country.
Of course, the logical step would be to right size migration to match the capacity to build new homes, which with a following wind might be around 150,000 each year. That should be core Government Policy. But no.
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of a live discussion, as we looked at the latest data on mortgage and rental stress, and many other metrics from our models, which gives us a view of how households are really travelling in this higher for longer rate environment, and in the light of the RBA’s rate decision.
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https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ for our One to One Service.
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A Replay: Latest On Household And Post Code Financial Pressure
Another outing with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick around the latest news and data across the Australian Property market.
Can you believe the theoretical housing announcables? Where is demand for property really coming from? What is the story of overseas purchasers?
Plus, we look at the latest numbers, and Edwin was a tip for the week!
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.
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Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.
Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.
Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.
We had important releases from Stats NZ and The New Zealand Central Bank, which combined highlights a weird and unsettling cognitive dissonance. It was perhaps a matter of perspective, because the focus was on the financial system, not individual households, but given the economy is so strongly connected to what households and businesses do, the stability report appeared unanchored from reality, especially given the prospects of higher rates for longer.
And many of the themes we look at here, are relevant to other economies, including Australia too.
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Kiwi’s Cracking Under The Pressure, But RBNZ Says Nothing To See Here!
This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party as we look at the latest in the war on cash, and the current claims we are in a “pre-war” environment more generally. What, or who is driving the narrative and what does this say about our economic and social freedoms, and the way politics is played?
In this weeks rumble, we deep dive into property auctions, which will make agents cry, and also look at the smoke and mirrors in the media. Plus Dusty and Evan wreck Edwin’s studio, as well as discussing some eating advice!
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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Against the backcloth of higher rates for longer, many of the Australian banks will provide trading updates over the next couple of weeks. As a group, they currently have the highest set of valuations seen for decades, but then, their earnings have held up relative to expectations. So what is ahead? And are all banks equal?
Some analysts are saying that although banks have flat to negative growth coming up for this year, from a capital management perspective, they’ve all got excess capital, so there will be more buybacks and special dividends to come. So the high valuations are just fine. But not everyone is convinced. Citi’s downgrades come a month after Macquarie told its clients to “underweight everything” in the banking sector.
But it’s worth highlighting that not all banks are created equal, because regional banks including Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, and Bank of Queensland are under the pump and look to be dying a slow death because of higher cost of funds compared with the big four banks, higher capital requirements, the upward pressure on costs from upgrading technology and lack of scale.
Treasury, the RBA and APRA need to ask themselves whether they are happy to ultimately have a financial services sector dominated by the big four banks and Macquarie. This is why a public bank, providing essential banking services to communities should be part of the solution, something which we hope will be tabled in the final report from the Senate looking in Regional Branch closures. As major banks leave smaller population centres without services, we need a valid alternative. We will discuss this again on Tuesdays live show at 8pm Sydney with Robbie Barwick.
Meantime, the larger players continue to buttress their profits, at the expense of ordinary Australians, and while the market like the high valuations, Australia INC is the poorer.
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Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on.
Here is the link to Tarric’s slides: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024
Here is the link to the recent discussion with Leith van Onselen, which we mentioned in the show. Inside The Property Twilight Zone! https://youtu.be/OxA_G4Fqw5w
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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker...
