Social Trends – Page 25 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay Tony Locantro: Welcome To The Sh*t Show..

…Ain’t no fun and games! This is an edited version of our recent live show, which was a dose of reality from Investment Manager Tony Locantro, from Alto Capital. Is the game up, and what are the consequences for investors, home owners and aspiring first time buyers?

https://www.altocapital.com.au/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay Tony Locantro: Welcome To The Sh*t Show..

00:00 / 01:31:59

The Lion In Winter As Property Listings Rise…

Listing rise in a number of locations, suggesting potential home price weakness especially in Sydney and Melbourne. So the question is where is the lift coming from, what is driving it, and what are the potential consequences?

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Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Lion In Winter As Property Listings Rise...

00:00 / 00:13:19

“Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!”

Scotty from Star Trek cries, as the Enterprise shakes and hums, as they try to squeeze more out of the warp core. This to me is a good analogy to what’s happening in the economy, based on the latest data from the ABS.

First, Average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults was $1,838 in May 2023, according to new seasonally adjusted figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The ABS also said the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7 per cent in July (seasonally adjusted).

Now three points, we know that given the pressures on households many are seeking and able to work more hours, and many via multiple jobs to increase income to cover the rapidly rising costs of living – including of course rental payments or increased mortgage payments.

Second, the rise in the unemployment rate is partially explained by the school holidays which occurred through the sample period.

But third, again we have sampling changes as the ABS roll off old samples, and bring a new one in. And here we see the new sample contains significantly higher unemployment counts sufficient to move the dial.

Thus, there is little here to prove that unemployment is rising so implying the RBA won’t hike. Next month we will likely see things moving around, but the gross growth in hours worked in the real issue – how much further can that be pushed, I suspect we are to return to our Star Trek introduction, pushing the Australian economic engines as far as they can go – until something breaks!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

"Captain! The Engines Canna Take More!"

00:00 / 00:10:47

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Our latest dissection of the property market – at the start of an important week in the future of housing with our property insider Edwin Almeida.

We look at the range of serious issues ahead, with an uptick in potential visitors to Australia, a small rise in listings, and a fall in rental availability as some of the factors crimping property investors bite.

We also look at the proposed rental freeze legislation from the Greens.

In such an important week, we will be live tomorrow with Edwin and taking questions on these critical issues. https://youtube.com/live/KpdkhMrhl_k

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 00:56:30

The UK Property Market Is Slowing! [Podcast]

UK households are facing an avalanche of cost pressures triggered by rising interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Key mortgage rates soared above 6% again this summer, and homebuilders including Ballymore Properties and Vistry Group Plc have already said they’re planning to cut staff numbers.

No surprise then that Britain’s property market showed signs of slowing to a crawl after a jump in mortgage costs reduced both buyer demand and the volume of sales. The figures add to evidence that the housing market is weakening after the quickest series of increases in interest rates lifted the cost of mortgages. Lenders including Nationwide and Halifax say property prices are falling, and some expect a peak-to-trough slump of 10% to 12% is “very likely.”

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey for July 2023 says at the national level, new buyer enquiries posted a figure of -45%, like last month’s figure of -46%. As a result, this metric continues to signal a sharp downturn in buyer demand following the latest escalation in mortgage interest rates. When viewed at the level of the English regions and the four nations, all parts of the UK display a firmly negative return for new buyer enquiries over the month.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The UK Property Market Is Slowing! [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:10:11

Are There Signs The Australian Labor Market Is Slowing? [Podcast]

The Australian economy has been relatively stable in the face of the higher interest rates, until now but cracks may be forming as new data arrives. Our mortgage stress analysis which we reported on earlier is one.

Now Payroll jobs data says the same.

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) receives payroll information from employers with Single Touch Payroll (STP) enabled payroll and accounting software each time the employer runs its payroll. The ATO provides selected employer and job level data items from the STP system to the ABS to produce statistics.

And according to the ABS Payroll jobs fell 0.2 per cent in the month to 15 July 2023, following a 0.3 per cent rise in the previous month.

I should say Payroll jobs are not seasonally adjusted and are predominantly employee jobs paid through payrolls. Some industries, such as Agriculture, forestry and fishing and Construction, have high proportions of owner managers who are not included in payroll reporting.

So we should note that in each release, as more complete data are received, payroll job estimates are revised. The magnitude of revisions can vary at some points of the year, such as the end of the financial year and calendar year in line with changes in the reporting activity of businesses.

That said, the ABS says “The latest month of data showed some slowing in jobs growth around the school holidays, together with the end of financial year seasonality we usually see in payroll reporting.”

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Are There Signs The Australian Labor Market Is Slowing? [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:06:14

UK Levelled Down To The Ground. [Podcast]

I am here running a project to measure financial stress in the UK, using the same methods as in Australia for the past two decades, and down the track I will be able to report and compare data across the country.

And this is timely, given that Gross domestic output is unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic level before 2024, according to just published forecasts from the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research. And worse, the UK is headed for five years of lost economic growth as the government fails in its goal to “level-up” the country’s regions and reduce inequality, an influential think tank says.

While output across the country will be lackluster, NIESR said, some regions will feel a sharper pinch. In London, it expects real wages will grow by up to 7% in the five years from the end of 2019 — but in the West Midlands, home to Britain’s third-largest city Birmingham, NIESR is projecting a 5% drop in inflation-adjusted pay.

The broader economy’s tepid pace of growth is one of the factors feeding a gap between the rich and poor, NIESR said. It predicted little real wage growth for low-income households, which also will have to shoulder higher levels of debt as food, energy and housing costs remain historically high.

By 2024, the UK’s poorest households could be facing a shortfall in their disposable incomes of 17% relative to 2019, compared to 5% for the richest households, the think-tank predicted.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

UK Levelled Down To The Ground. [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:07:27