Social Trends – Page 6 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Mortgage Stress Pigeons Coming Home To Roost!

Those following the DFA channel will know we have been tracking the rise of mortgage stress in recent times, as the higher interest rates and prices bite while real incomes stalled. I have been listing some of those post codes, like Liverpool in Sydney or DonnyBrook in Melbourrne, where we have been measuring cash flow pressures on households building.

Of course, the banks have been extending and pretending, offering households the chance to extend the term of their loan, or go interest only for a period. Initially people who were over committed reached for this lifeline, but as the recent ASIC report said, this often just put off taking hard decisions about selling up while you can. Many households are making this call now, and I expect property listings to rise in the months ahead as a result.

However, up to now the number of mortgagee sales has been very low, first because of the extend and pretend strategy, second because some households do decide to sell before they are forced to and thanks to recent price rises get to replay the bank and move on. But eventually the mortgagee sales worm will turn, as interest rates stay higher for longer and as lenders, especially from the Non-Bank sector get tough.

But now we are seeing this discussed in the press, with Realestate.com.au reporting Millions of dollars worth of Aussie homes have been seized for mortgagee sales from McMansions to townhouses and inner city apartments as data shows 100 suburbs in trouble.

However, I think more accountability should be taken by the RBA for its poor monetary policy decisions, the government for pumping migration and lenders for lending way too much and the industry for frankly telling porkies.
But at the end of the day, it is individual households who are caught in the vice, and are having to make hard decisions about their financial futures.

We will be releasing the next edition of our stress analysis in a few days, look out for that, but already I can see that the tax cuts and Government handouts are only providing limited short-term relief for some, so I effect more defaults in the months ahead.

I hate to be proved right on this, but I think I will be!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Mortgage Stress Pigeons Coming Home To Roost!

00:00 / 00:08:52

Its Edwin’s Monday Property Rant!

In this weeks show with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, we look at the latest data and reports on the property market. How far is the lag and what can we tell about what is happening on the ground?

The vibes are showing higher listings, but not necessarily good quality ones and the rest, while politics seems to be warping things even more.

The pressure on households is real, but some polys are still building their investment property portfolios. Conflict? What conflict?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:04:54

Is Property Springing Into Life, Or Catching A Cold?

Whilst data should be immutable, interpretation of said data can be tweaked and turned, to spin a particular story. As we have seen in the press this past week. Take, for example auction clearance results.

The preliminary auction clearance rates for this past weekend in the biggest markets of Sydney and Melbourne came out tracking nationally at 71.4 per cent of homes listed for auction based on CoreLogic data. Sydney’s clearance rate was 74.9 per cent and Melbourne’s 68.7 per cent, more or less in line with the previous week. Among the smaller capitals, Adelaide led the way with a clearance rate at 79.5 per cent, followed by Brisbane at 67.3 per cent and Canberra at 56.5 per cent, according to CoreLogic data. But these are on very low counts, so again not that meaningful.

Domain on the other hand reported a Sydney clearance of 67.8% up from 64.2% last week, and below the 68.7% from a year ago. Melbourne was at 62.4% compared with 59.6% last week, and 61.9% a year back. The national number was 63.5%, a significant divergence from CoreLogic’s higher 71.4%.

There are a few points worth making here. The final numbers tend to settle lower, because agents are always keen to promote successful sales, while those passed in are either never reported, or reported later. Some properties are withdrawn before auction, either because they are sold prior, or because the vendor changes tack. As such auction clearance rates do not tell us much at all.

Of course, the spring selling season is now ramping up, and about 2300 auctions are scheduled in the coming week, compared with around 2,000 this past couple of weeks. And listings are rising as vendors decide to sell or are forced to sell. We will chat about this again on Mondays Rant with Edwin. But we do continue to see a spate of ex-investment properties listing, especially in Melbourne, as I reported recently, and the trend is widening.

The bottom line of course is potential buyers should be careful what they purchase, especially as price growth ahead is not assured, especially if the weaker demand for iron ore puts the economy into recession. And prospective sellers would do well to select their agents carefully, as some are still pushing the auction route, one which does not necessarily guarantee a better net sale price, but which does guarantee more income for agents via their additional marketing and auction fees. Just saying!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is Property Springing Into Life, Or Catching A Cold?

00:00 / 00:10:21

The Real Truth About The Wealth Of Nations: With Bruce Francis Schaafsma

I caught up with author Bruce Francis Schaafsma who has just published a thought provoking book which questions some fundamental assumptions about economics, with profound and far-reaching consequences. While we see the rich getting richer whilst others struggle, what if there are enough resources in the world, and the real issue we face is a distributional one, and not scarcity related – despite what modern economists would have you believe?

Bruce’s website is at https://abundanomics.info/

https://www.austinmacauley.com/genre/politics-philosophy-non-fiction

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Real Truth About The Wealth Of Nations: With Bruce Francis Schaafsma

00:00 / 00:21:19

Is Melbourne The Property Problem Child?

You may recall that I often say, there is not one property market but many micro markets that behave in quite different ways. But at the capital city level, Melbourne appears to be in some strife in terms of price falls at the moment.

Overall, it certainly looks like the combined impact of state policy, higher interest rates, and also bad planning decisions, combined with significant interstate migration away from Melbourne, which is offsetting still too high net overseas migration, is translating into property weakness. That said, of course property still remains over expensive relative to income to a stupid amount, while the restriction of international studies this year will weaken demand for rental property, so while the currently rental growth is still 7.8% over the part year according to CoreLogic, it may well begin to weaken ahead, putting more pressure on property investors in the area.

It does indeed look like for now Melbourne is a property problem child, but it also to me highlights the exposure that Perth has given the risks to mining demand from a weaker China. And as the RBA minutes reinforced yesterday, its not likely we will see rate cuts anytime soon.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Is Melbourne The Property Problem Child?

00:00 / 00:07:15

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In tonight’s show our Property Insider Edwin Almeida and I chuckle at the “innovative” policy for first home buyers being mooted in the USA (no, these do not work: see Australia!), look at price growth in Perth, and a horror story in Logan City, Brisbane, as well as the normal deep dive in the numbers. And at the end a really useful tip, as usual!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Its Edwin's Monday Evening Property Rant!

00:00 / 01:11:37

The Narrow Path Is Beset With Uncertainty!

On Friday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock and her new look team were questioned by the House Economics Committee in Canberra for most of the morning. And I watched it all, so you don’t have to! There was very little new at one level, because the bank had recently released its statement on monetary policy and rate `decision.

Recall that the Reserve Bank left the key rate at a 12-year high of 4.35% and maintained its hawkish rhetoric. Money markets and economists still reckon the RBA’s next move will be a cut, though they’re split on the timing. Traders are betting December will be the beginning of the easing cycle, while the consensus of economists is it will only start sometime in 2025.

It’s clear from Governor Bullocks opening statement, that Australia’s central bank remains some way off easing monetary policy because inflation is proving persistent and will only return back to the target range late next year.
“The board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation,” Bullock said in her opening statement to a parliamentary panel in Canberra on Friday. “It is premature to be thinking about rate cuts.”

Supporting the RBA’s caution, data this week showed Australia’s labor market continued to add jobs at a solid pace while wage growth remains elevated. See my earlier show “When things don’t add up at the RBA. Separate figures pointed to a small rebound in consumer sentiment and business confidence is holding up.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Narrow Path Is Beset With Uncertainty!

00:00 / 00:22:32

The Sham Build To Rent Property Solution…

Demand for a place to live remains very high, driven by population growth from mega-high migration and low but perhaps improving vacancy rates in the rental sector. We know that roughly one third of households own their own property, outright, one third own with a mortgage, and one third rent. Those in the last two categories are expanding, while those who own outright are shrinking as a proportion of the total – though with some state variations.

Over recent decades, the Government has effectively outsourced the provision of rental housing to the private sector, via mum and dad investors, who get considerable tax breaks to hold property for rent, and more recently though the rise of the so-called build to rent sector, which is being held out as a solution to the lack of property for rent.

The critical question is do we want to go further into the mire of neo-liberalism and let big international investors build homes to rent in Australia, with rents that according to Cameron Murray are typically higher than local providers, while offering even more tax breaks, to corporates, or should the Government get back into the home building game, (see my discussion with Elisa Barwick yesterday) through a public bank, and also dial back migration to a sustainable level. Ideology apart the answer seems obvious, and yet… they still want more migrations to pump GDP and more build to rent to meet a housing target which was built in fairy land.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Sham Build To Rent Property Solution...

00:00 / 00:15:50

Who Killed The Australian Dream? With Elisa Barwick

In today’s deep dive, Elisa Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party shares her research on why housing has become so expensive, and what can be done about it. But this is not the normal discussion of high migration or currently government policy, rather it sheets the cause to a chapter of history dominated by neo-liberalists, austerity and the rise of technocrats who still now dominate our lives.

Links to Elisa’s research:

https://citizensparty.org.au/sites/default/files/2024-07/neoliberalism-home-ownership.pdf

https://citizensparty.org.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/hijacking-australian-banking.pdf

https://citizensparty.org.au/sites/default/files/2024-04/kennett-austerity.pdf

https://citizensparty.org.au/sites/default/files/2024-01/austerity_series-sm.pdf

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Who Killed The Australian Dream? With Elisa Barwick