State of the States – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

State of the States – NSW Wins

Commsec released their latest state of the state report, calculated from eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; business investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements. Housing finance and construction therefore drive the index hard.

They say that Australia’s economies are in good shape but with some differences in relative performance. NSW remains solidly on top of the economic performance rankings from Victoria while the ACT holds down third spot. Then there is a gap to Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland, and then a gap to the Northern Territory and Western Australia.

NSW has secured top rankings on five of the eight economic indicators: retail trade, dwelling starts, equipment investment, construction work and unemployment. NSW is second on economic growth and in third spot on population growth and housing finance.

Victoria is second on the economic performance rankings for five of the eight indicators: retail trade, housing finance, population growth, construction work done and equipment investment. The lowest ranking is fifth on the unemployment rate.

The ACT held on to third spot on the rankings. The biggest improvement has been the job market, with annual employment growth now the strongest in almost a decade. The ACT is top-ranked on housing finance.

There is little to separate three of the next economies with a further gap to Northern Territory and Western Australia. Tasmania has lifted from fifth to fourth position. Tasmania now is top-ranked on relative population growth and is third-placed on equipment investment and unemployment. Population growth is the strongest in 6½ years.

South Australia has eased from fourth to fifth on the performance rankings. South Australia is ranked fourth on four of the eight indicators.

Queensland remains in sixth position. But the outlook is promising with annual employment growth the fastest in the nation and just off the fastest for the state in over a decade.

The Northern Territory retains its seventh position on the economic performance rankings. The Territory is top ranked on economic growth but now lags all other economies on six of the eight indicators. Employment is now lower than a year ago in trend terms. The good news is that exports are growing strongly, up 35 per cent on a year ago.

The economic performance of Western Australia continues to reflect the ending of the mining construction boom. But employment growth was just off the strongest levels seen in five years. And annual population growth has lifted for the past four quarters.

East Coast States Top of the Pile – CommSec

The latest CommSec State of the States Report, to end June 2017 shows continued buoyancy in the in NSW and VIC, as well as Canberra.

The data shows housing finance in Canberra is growing at a faster rate than anywhere else in Australia. The number of new mortgages there grew 22.4% above the long term (decade) average, streets ahead of New South Wales, (15%) and Victoria (14.3%0. Plus ACT has a strong construction rating, growing at a rate 21.4% above the decade average, only behind NSW. In fact ACT was the only state or territory to increase construction levels compared to 2016!

NSW has retained its top rankings on both retail trade and dwelling starts. NSW is second on five of the eight indicators. The lowest NSW ranking is third on construction work.

Victoria has lifted from third to second on the economic performance rankings with momentum provided by its leading position on population growth. Victoria is second on two indicators and in third spot on another two indicators.

The ACT has dropped from second spot to third on the rankings. The ACT is top-ranked on housing finance, second on dwelling starts and in third spot on another three indicators. But the ACT has slipped to seventh on the unemployment ranking.

There is little to separate four of the other economies with a further gap to Western Australia.

Tasmania retains its position in fourth spot but is joined by Queensland. And South Australia has edged its way into sixth on the performance rankings from the Northern Territory.

The highest positions for Tasmania are third on population growth and unemployment. Queensland is benefitting from strong export growth which will boost overall growth of Gross State Product (economic growth). Exports are growing at a 56 per cent annual rate.

South Australia is now top-ranked on business investment. But the next best ranking is fifth on dwelling starts and housing finance.

The Northern Territory eases from sixth to seventh position on the economic performance rankings.

The Territory is still ranked first on construction work done, unemployment and economic growth. But on forwardlooking indicators like population growth, housing finance and home starts the Territory lags other economies.

The economic performance of Western Australia continues to reflect the ending of the mining construction boom. But unemployment has eased over the last three months.

Ideally Gross State Product (GSP) would be used to assess broad economic growth. But the data isn’t available quarterly. And we have previously used state final demand (household and business spending) and exports less imports to act as a proxy for GSP. But the Bureau of Statistics has ceased calculation of state trade data in real terms. So we now use state final demand plus trade in nominal terms and rolling annual totals are used to remove seasonality.

The Northern Territory has retained top spot on economic growth. Economic activity in the ‘Top End’ is 29.4 per cent above its ‘normal’ or decade-average level of output.

Next strongest is NSW, with output 25.3 per cent higher than the decade average level of output. Then follows the ACT (up 25.2 per cent) from Victoria (23 per cent).

At the other end of the scale, economic activity in Tasmania in the March quarter was just 10.2 per cent above its decade average while Western Australian activity was up 10.8 per cent, behind South Australia (up 14.6 per cent) and Queensland (up 17.5 per cent).

The Northern Territory also has the fastest nominal annual economic growth rate in the nation, up by 10.4 per cent on a year ago, ahead of the ACT (up 7.3 per cent), NSW (up 6.9 per cent) and Queensland (up 5.9 per cent).

The weakest nominal annual growth rates are in South Australia (up 1.6 per cent) and Tasmania (up 1.9 per cent).

In terms of economic growth, if trend State Final Demand in real terms is used, comparing the latest result with decade averages reveals some subtle changes in the rankings. Queensland performs better using the nominal data including trade due a strong lift in exports. In the year
to March, Queensland exports were up 56 per cent on a year ago. Similarly Western Australian exports were up by 27 per cent on a year ago.

NSW Tops The CBA Rankings in April 2017

The latest CBA “State of the States” report puts NSW at the top of the list and WA last.

NSW has retained its top rankings on business investment, retail trade and dwelling starts. NSW is in second spot on unemployment, construction work and economic growth. NSW is in third spot on housing finance and unemployment.

The ACT has lifted to second spot and is now top-ranked on housing finance. The Territory is second on two indicators and third on another three.

Victoria is in third spot, easing in its relative position on business investment and housing finance. Victoria leads on population growth.

There is little to separate other economies and there have been no changes in rankings.

Tasmania holds its position in fourth spot but there is little to separate it from Queensland, Northern Territory and South Australia. Tasmania is now in second spot for unemployment.

Queensland remains in fifth position on the economic performance rankings. Queensland is benefitting from strong export growth which will boost overall growth of Gross State Product (economic growth). Exports are growing at a 43 per cent annual rate.

The Northern Territory remains in sixth position on the economic performance rankings. The Territory is still ranked first on construction work done and unemployment and is now also top-ranked on economic growth. But on forward-looking indicators like population growth, housing finance and home starts, the Territory lags other
economies.

The South Australian economy is in seventh position. South Australia is middle-ranked on business investment and fifth-ranked on dwelling starts.

The economic performance of Western Australia continues to reflect the ending of the mining construction boom. But unemployment has eased over the last three months.

WA and Qld slip further in economic rankings

The latest State of the States report from CommSec shows that Queensland and Western Australia have each fallen one place on the list to sixth and seventh respectively, while South Australia jumped them both to be fifth. But in two years Western Australia has gone from first to seventh in the performance rankings.

NSW has retained its top rankings on population growth, equipment investment, retail trade, and dwelling starts and added economic growth. But NSW drifted to second spot on unemployment. NSW improved to third ranked on construction work and drifted to third on housing finance (previously second).

Victoria is solidly in second spot on the economic performance rankings. Victoria is ranked second on a number of indicators (economic growth, population growth, retail trade, business investment, construction work and housing finance). Victoria has moved from second ranked to fourth ranked on unemployment.

Both states are maintaining a healthy lead over the other states and territories.

The Northern Territory holds fourth position and remains in top spot for construction work done and is also now best on unemployment. However the Territory economy is losing momentum, ranked last on population growth, business investment and housing finance, while sixth ranked on retail trade.

The South Australian economy is now fifth-ranked (previously sixth) and improved in the quarter. South Australia is middle ranked on population growth and housing finance and fifth ranked on economic growth. It remains last on retail trade.

Queensland shifts from fifth to sixth spot on the economic performance rankings. While second-ranked on dwelling starts, it is bottom-ranked on construction work and seventh-ranked on economic growth and unemployment.

Western Australia is now seventh and near the bottom of the Australian economic performance table. In two years the mining state has gone from first to seventh. WA is third on retail trade and is middle-ranked on construction work. But WA struggles on unemployment (last) and is ranked seventh on business investment, population growth, and housing finance.

Tasmania is in eighth position. The “Apple Isle” is fifth ranked on four indicators but is last on dwelling starts and economic growth.

There is little to separate the bottom three ranked economies.

NSW Booming, Thanks To Housing – CommSec

In CommSec’s latest State of the States report, NSW has retained its top ranking on population growth and retail trade and is also now number one on dwelling starts. It is second placed on business investment, and housing finance. NSW is fourth on overall construction work, unemployment and fifth on economic growth.

Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; equipment investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements. Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of ‘normal’ interest rates; we have done the same with key economic indicators. For each state and territory, latest readings for the key indicators were compared with decade averages – that is, against the ‘normal’ performance.

Last quarter NSW shared the top spot of Australia’s economic performance rankings alongside the Northern Territory. However this time around NSW has edged ahead to take sole ownership of the top ranking. In second place is the Northern Territory. The next grouping is Western Australia and Victoria. Queensland holds on to fifth spot. The ACT and South Australia are closely grouped in sixth and seventh respectively. Tasmania is ranked eighth. Over the past quarter, NSW has improved its position on housing finance and dwelling starts to consolidate its position at the top of the economic performance rankings.