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Forget The FED Pivot – And Housing Price Falls Won’t Stop Them Either! [Podcast]

So, after this latest rate hike, the Fed has now lifted its benchmark rate by 300 basis points, or 3% in just six months as the central bank accelerates policy to restrictive territory with the aim of slowing growth enough to make a meaningful dent in inflation.

“We can’t fail to do that,” he said, referring to the central bank’s mission against price growth. “That would be the thing that would be most painful for the people that we serve. We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t. What we need to do is get rates up to the point where we’re putting meaningful downward pressure on inflation. That’s what we’re doing. We haven’t given up the idea that we can have a relatively modest increase in unemployment.”

But critically, there were no signs of easing its push into restrictive territory as it battles to cool the embers of inflation.

“We’ve just moved into the very, very lowest level of what might be restrictive [territory],” Powell said in the press conference that followed the monetary policy statement. “In my view, there’s a ways to go.”

As a result, the Fed now sees its benchmark rate rising to 4.4% in 2022, above the 3.4% forecast in June, paving the way for further front-loading of rate hikes in the remaining two Fed meetings for the year and into 2023.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Forget The FED Pivot - And Housing Price Falls Won’t Stop Them Either! [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:17:50

Is Risk Hiding In Plain Sight?

Deep in the financial system plumbing, risks are rising. And the question is – will something break, as rates are hiked, and liquidity withdrawn? Massive Federal Reserve buying of Treasuries stabilized the market over the past two years, but liquidity gauges have eroded since the purchases stopped.

The market for U.S. Treasuries has grown to more than $24 trillion, expanding nearly tenfold over the past 20 years at the same time that major regulatory changes have blunted the ability of some bank-owned dealers of government debt to increase their purchases.

The Fed is this month accelerating the pace of winding down the nearly $US9 trillion balance sheet it built up for more than a decade in an effort to cushion the economy from shocks. It aims to shrink the total by $US95 billion a month — double the August pace.

Yet in fact the Federal Reserve Weekly Assets went up last week, which is weird, given the fact that Quantitative Tightening is meant to have started and we did see a fall in total assets less eliminations over recent weeks. But on the 14th of September the balance was reported at $8,832,759M, whereas the preceding week it was $8,822,401m, so a net rise of $10.36 billion.

Looking down the list of assets, we see US Treasury Securities fell by 3.73 billion, the bulk of which was bills, while mortgage-backed securities rose by $9.23 billion.

On the other hand, reverse repos rose by $66.8 billion (this is money parked at the Central Banks by Financial Institutions).

Right now, when bonds held by the Fed mature, the central bank churns the money back into the market. When it stops doing that, investment banks — known as dealers — must mop up any excess paper in the system on top of any new bonds that the US Treasury issues. It is not certain that the commercial sector has the stomach for this. Bank of America head of US rates strategy Mark Cabana said: “Dealers will inevitably be holding more Treasury inventory.

They’re going to have to finance that, which puts upward pressure on repo rates, that over time will probably contribute to more volatile Treasury markets, potentially worsening Treasury liquidity.” This is all looking a bit messy and a signal there are liquidity pressures emerging. In fact, the US Federal Reserve’s more rapid exit from crisis-era policies is placing the $US24 trillion US government bond market under extra strain, heightening concerns about the bedrock of the global financial system.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Here Comes The Wealth Destruction… [Podcast]

As foreshadowed, we are now seeing the sharp reversal in asset prices, which were driven through the roof due to ultra-low interest rates, central bank quantitative easing, and government support through COVID plus huge debt growth.

Of course, the recent gains were largely spurious, and a correction was always going to come – hopefully some watching our shows are best prepared for this process (which will take some time), but be clear wealth will be destroyed across property, shares, bonds, metals and crypto.

No surprise then that U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, tumbling to two-month lows as a warning of impending global slowdown from FedEx hastened investors’ flight to safety at the conclusion of a tumultuous week. The session also marked the monthly options expiry, which occurs on the third Friday of every month. Options-hedging activity has amplified market moves this year, contributing to heightened volatility.

All three major U.S. stock indexes slid to levels not touched since mid-July, with the S&P 500 closing below 3,900, a closely watched support level and suffering its worst weekly percentage plunge since June.

“It’s been a tough week. It feels Halloween came early” said David Carter, managing director at JPMorgan in New York. “We are facing in this toxic brew of high inflation, high interest rates and low growth, which isn’t good for stock or bond markets.”

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Here Comes The Wealth Destruction... [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:22:33

Here Comes The Wealth Destruction…

The session also marked the monthly options expiry, which occurs on the third Friday of every month. Options-hedging activity has amplified market moves this year, contributing to heightened volatility.

All three major U.S. stock indexes slid to levels not touched since mid-July, with the S&P 500 closing below 3,900, a closely watched support level and suffereing its worst weekly percentage plunge since June.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Monetary Arms Race Is Here!

The RBA was interrogated by Parliament today regarding its monetary policy stance and interest rates. But it was all a bit pointless as really the Federal Reserve sets interest rates in the US, but effectively also for the entire world, given the fact that the US dollar behaves as the reserve currency.

Persistently high inflation in the United States and elsewhere has forced the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates, giving the dollar a significant yield advantage that has triggered a rampaging rally against its major global peers. That will put pressure on the RBA.

Eventually, the Fed’s actions will come back to bite it and the US. By then all the many trillions of dollars of stimulus work done during the pandemic will have been unwound. What a phenomenal waste of time, money and effort.

The fallout on the FED’s myopia will be felt more in other countries, including Australia, which means we are on the end of the see-saw driven by the US. This is soft power at its worse, transmitted to a monetary system which is built to favour one nation over the rest.

The question is of course whether this will change. Without major reform it will not, not least in recognition of fact that many international institutions such as the IMF, WEF and BIS are strongly aligned to the interests of the US. So The Monetary Arms Race Is Here.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Monetary Arms Race Is Here!

00:00 / 00:20:48

Emerging Pressures On Mortgage Lenders…

The US mortgage industry is seeing its first lenders go out of business after a sudden spike in lending rates, and the wave of failures that’s coming could be the worst since the housing bubble burst about 15 years ago, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

There’s no systemic meltdown coming this time around, because there hasn’t been the same level of lending excesses and because many of the biggest banks pulled back from mortgages after the financial crisis. But market watchers nonetheless expect a string of bankruptcies broad enough to trigger a spike in layoffs in an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of workers, and potentially an increase in some lending rates.

More of the business is now controlled by independent lenders, and with mortgage volumes plunging this year, many are struggling to stay afloat. “The nonbanks are poorly capitalized,” said Nancy Wallace, chair of the real estate group at Berkeley Haas, the business school at University of California, Berkeley. “When the mortgage market tanks they are in trouble.”

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you. Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side. Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make. Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest. Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

The Persistence Of Inflation…

As discussed yesterday, the US inflation read was seen by the markets as important. A fall in the number would lead to markets potentially regaining their footing. Before the report, economists had been betting that annual inflation would dip below 7% in the third quarter of this year on expectations that supply chains will get back in order and inflation will dent demand.

And of course Joe Biden had come out before the number was released saying “I want every American to know that I am taking inflation very seriously and it’s my top domestic priority,” “The first cause of inflation is a once-in-a-century pandemic. Not only did it shut down our global economy, it threw supply chains and demand completely out of whack… And this year we have a second cause: Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine.”

But Americans got little respite from inflation in April, as prices for a range of necessities and discretionary-spending categories continued to climb at some of the fastest-ever rates. The Labor Department said Wednesday its consumer price index slowed to 0.3% last month from 1.2% previously, exceeding forecasts for a slowdown to a 0.2% rise. Consumer prices in April year-on-year slowed to 8.3% from 8.5%.

Grocery prices were up 10.8% over April 2021, with meat rising 13.9% and eggs up 22.6%.

That S&P bear market debate is raging nonetheless, with some strategists and observers saying the S&P 500 is growling just like one should. Wall Street banks like Morgan Stanley have been saying the market is getting close to that point.

But should the S&P 500 officially enter the bear’s lair, Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, have calculated just how long the pain could last. Looking at a history of 19 bear markets over the past 140 years, they found the average price decline was 37.3% and the average duration about 289 days.

While “past performance is no guide to future performance,” Hartnett and the team say the current bear market would end Oct. 19 of this year, with the S&P 500 at 3,000 and the NASDAQ Composite at 10,000.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

The Inflation Noose Drives Policy Reversal! [Podcast]

Let’s face it, the rampant rise in Oil prices, is a big headache for politicians around the world, as the lift in prices is driving inflation. Just remember Oil was already on the up BEFORE Ukraine kicked off.

And if you are going to make an unpopular policy change, when better than later Friday before a holiday weekend – the good ol’ putting the trash out.

Certainly the price of Oil is a problem and it seems that any selloff in oil is only proving to be a buy-back opportunity amid one highly volatile energy market. Perhaps the most volatile ever.

Crude prices jumped almost 3% on the day and nearly 9% on the week as the market was hijacked once again by a supply scare on news that the European Union might phase in a ban on Russian oil imports.

Gains in oil were limited earlier in the day as Chinese refiners appeared set to cut crude throughput this month by about 6%. The reduction would be a scale last seen in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic two years ago, industry sources and analysts said.

But news of the proposed EU ban on Russian oil prompted buyers to swoop in on more lots of crude futures and convinced some shorts to cover their positions as well ahead of the Good Friday holiday, which meant a longer weekend for U.S. markets.

“Heading into the long weekend, oil was vulnerable to some profit-taking, but a major pullback is still unwarranted given the supply situation and as economic slowdown concerns are still far from happening”.

Now the inflation problem is creating a series of back-flips including one relating to plans for oil and gas development on federal lands as now the Biden administration has said it has resumed plans for oil and gas development on federal lands. Granted the plan calls for the government to lease fewer acres for drilling than initially proposed, charge steeper royalties to oil and gas companies, and assess the climate impact of developing the acreage.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Inflation Noose Drives Policy Reversal! [Podcast]

00:00 / 00:14:19

The Inflation Noose Drives Policy Reversal!

Let’s face it, the rampant rise in oil prices, is a big headache for politicians around the world, as the lift in prices is driving inflation. Just remember oil was already on the up BEFORE Ukraine kicked off.

And if you are going to make an unpopular policy change, when better than later Friday before a holiday weekend – the good ol’ putting the trash out.

Certainly the price of oil is a problem and it seems that any selloff in oil is only proving to be a buy-back opportunity amid one highly volatile energy market. Perhaps the most volatile ever.

Crude prices jumped almost 3% on the day and nearly 9% on the week as the market was hijacked once again by a supply scare on news that the European Union might phase in a ban on Russian oil imports.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Peak Inflation: Really?

Today we got the latest read on inflation in the US. The consumer price index, or CPI, climbed to 8.5% in the 12 months through March, above economists’ forecasts of 8.4%, Some are suggesting we are reaching a peak, but that is more hope than data driven in my view. In fact, it was the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, that dominated investor attention.

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.