Home prices are driven by a combination of demand where population growth thanks to high migration puts upward pressure on prices; supply where more property for sale puts downward pressure on prices, and availability of credit as the catalyst for transactions to occur.
Much of the debate is currently centered on supply side issues. As I discussed last week, Outgoing Governor Phil Lowe, urged governments at all levels to work together to address the problem of housing affordability. Notably, he dismissed rent controls as a short-term fix that would provide immediate relief by reducing the incentive to fix the key problem: supply.
“There aren’t short-term solutions here. The solution has to be putting in place a structure that makes the supply side of the housing market more flexible and that means zoning and planning deregulation and it means state and local governments being part of the solution.”
This means that first time buyer incentives, or rental support just make the problem, worst – something which I have highlighted over the years (and which by the way the Productive Commission also confirmed).
But my fear is that the un-defused credit bomb will be skirted around and as the supply side elephant is paraded through the streets. But it is the credit Elephant in the room which should be addressed, even if it shrinks bank balance sheets and profits. If not, nothing will fundamentally change and prices will remain as out of whack as they currently are.
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