The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2 per cent in the month of September 2018 after the August figure was revised down, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The 5% seasonally adjusted result will get all the attention, but these are very volatile, so it is best to work with the trend data, which shows a fall, although participation remains steady. But underemployment remains higher than post the GFC.
“Today’s figures continue to show a gradual decrease in the trend unemployment rate that began in late 2014. The trend unemployment rate of 5.2 per cent is the lowest it has been since mid 2012.” said the Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman.
Employment and hoursTrend employment increased by around 26,000 persons in September 2018 with full-time employment increasing by over 21,000 persons.
The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6 per cent in September 2018.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by over 290,000 persons or 2.4 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).
The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent in September 2018 and by 1.8 per cent over the past year.
States and territoriesThe states and territories with the strongest annual growth in trend employment were New South Wales (3.4 per cent) and Victoria (2.6 per cent). New South Wales and Victoria were the only states and territories to record year-on-year growth above their 20-year averages.
Seasonally adjusted data
The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by around 5,600 persons in September 2018. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 5.0 per cent and the labour force participation rate decreased to 65.4 per cent.The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by well over 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment in the month.
New underemployment data
The trend underemployment rate decreased to 8.3 per cent in September 2018 and the trend underutilisation rate decreased to 13.5 per cent.
The ABS also published a piece on underemployment.
AUSTRALIA’S UNDEREMPLOYMENT OVER TIME
As of September 2018, Australia’s trended underemployment rate (the proportion of underemployed to the total labour force) remained high in historical terms at 8.3%, but below the peak of 8.8% recorded in March 2017.
The underemployment rate has been increasing since it was first recorded in the February 1978 reference period. Over the last four years, the rate has seen minimal fluctuation, remaining between 8.3% and 8.8% in trend terms. The underemployment rate showed large increases over economic downturns – most notably during the early 1990s and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (refer to Graph 1).
Graph 1, Underemployment and unemployment rates trended, February 1978 to September 2018
a. The monthly data for part-time workers who want to work more hours, between April 2001 and June 2014, is modelled as data during this period was collected quarterly.
