The ABS released their employment data for June 2018 today. The headline will read a fall to a 5 year low.
The trend unemployment rate was 5.4% in the month of June 2018, according to latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today. The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6 per cent in June 2018, after the May figure was revised up.
“Over the year to June, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points. This continues a gradual decrease in the trend unemployment rate from late 2014 and is the lowest rate since January 2013,” said the Chief Economist for the ABS, Bruce Hockman.
Employment and hours
Trend employment increased by around 27,000 persons in June 2018 and the growth was evenly split between full-time and part-time employment, with both increasing by over 13,000 persons. The net increase of 27,000 persons comprised well over 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment in the month.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by 318,000 persons or 2.6 per cent, which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).
15 to 19 year olds have contributed around a third of trend employment growth since January 2018. Employment for 15 to 19 year olds increased by over 6,000 in June 2018 and grew by around 58,000 over the last year.
The trend monthly hours worked increased by 3.4 million hours or 0.2 per cent in June 2018, and by 2.6 per cent over the past year.
States and Territories
Year-on-year growth in trend employment was above the 20 year average in all states and territories except for Victoria and Western Australia. Over the past year, the states and territories with the strongest annual growth in trend employment were New South Wales (3.7 per cent), Australian Capital Territory (2.9 per cent) and Queensland (2.6 per cent).
Underemployment
Underemployment (those in work who want more work) is at 9%, and is trending up a little. This is significantly higher than in 2011 when the employment rate was in a similar region, suggesting that more people feel the need for additional work.
Of course the stats are based on a wide definition of “employed” as even a small number of working hours a week shows as an employed person. Alternative measures of unemployment report much higher rates, so there is a question as to the significance and reliability of the numbers. But the trend remains down, which is good news, but in the region above 5%, the level at which the RBA says income growth may start to rise. So we are not there yet!
