Australia’s trend unemployment rate decreased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 5.2 per cent in November 2019, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.
ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “In November 2019, the trend unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.2 per cent, the same level it was six months ago.”
“Over the past six months, the trend unemployment rate, participation rate and employment to population ratio have all remained relatively stable,” said Mr Hockman.
Employment and hours
In November 2019, trend monthly employment increased by around 17,000 people. Full-time employment increased by around 8,000 people and part-time employment increased by around 9,000 people.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 269,000 people (2.1 per cent), which continued to be above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent). Full-time employment increased at the same rate as the past 20 years (1.6 per cent), and part-time employment (3.2 per cent) was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (3.0 per cent).
The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.1 per cent in November 2019 and by 1.6 per cent over the past year. This was slightly below the 20 year average annual growth of 1.7 per cent.
Underemployment and underutilisation
The trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.4 per cent in November 2019, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the past year. The trend monthly underutilisation rate also remained steady at 13.6 per cent in November 2019, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the past year.
States and territories trend unemployment rate
The monthly trend unemployment rate remained steady in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory in November 2019. The unemployment rate increased in New South Wales, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and decreased in Tasmania.
Over the year, unemployment rates fell in Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. The unemployment rate increased in all other states and the Northern Territory, except Tasmania where the rate was the same as it was 12 months ago.
Over the past year, trend employment increased by 268,900 people (or 2.1%), which was above the average annual growth rate over the past 20 years of 2.0%. Over the same 12 months, the trend employment to population ratio, which is a measure of how employed the population (aged 15 years and over) is, increased by 0.3 percentage points (pts) to 62.6%.
Dynamic Market changes
Trend employment increased by 17,400 people (0.13%) between October and November 2019. This was below the monthly average growth rate over the last 20 years of 0.16%.
Underpinning these net changes in employment is extensive dynamic change, which occurs each month in the labour market. In recent months there has been more than 300,000 people entering and leaving employment. There is also further dynamic change in the hours that people work, which results in changes in the full-time and part-time composition of employment.
Trend full-time employment increased by 8,300 people between October and November 2019, and part-time employment increased by 9,000 people. Compared to a year ago, there were 140,800 more people employed full-time and 128,100 more people employed part-time. This compositional change has led to an increase in the part-time share of employment from 31.4% to 31.8%.
The trend estimate of monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 2.3 million hours (0.1%) to 1,782.8 million hours in November 2019. Over the past year, monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 1.6%, below the 2.1% increase in employed people. In November, the average hours worked per employed person was around 137.5 hours per month or around 31.7 hours per week.
The trend unemployment rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.2% in November 2019. The number of unemployed people decreased by 1,200 in November 2019 to 716,300 people, and by 44,000 people since November 2018.
The trend participation rate remained steady at 66.1% in November 2019, and was 0.5 pts higher than in November 2018. The female participation rate remained steady at 61.2% and the male participation rate remained steady at 71.1%.
The labour force includes the total number of employed and unemployed people. Over the past 12 months, the labour force increased by 312,900 people (2.3%). This rate of increase was above the rate of increase for the total Civilian Population aged 15 years and over (1.6%).
The trend participation rate for 15-64 year olds, which controls (in part) for the effects of an aging population, remained steady at 78.7%. The gap between male and female participation rates in this age group was less than 10 pts, at 83.2% and 74.2% respectively, continuing the long term convergence of male and female participation.
The trend participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the “youth” group in the labour market) remained steady at 68.1%. The unemployment rate for this group remained steady at 11.7% from October to November 2019, and has increased by 0.3 pts since November 2018.
Seasonally adjusted data
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2 per cent in November 2019, while the underemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.3 per cent. The seasonally adjusted participation rate remained steady at 66.0 per cent, and the number of people employed increased by around 40,000.
The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by around 300,000 people entering and leaving employment in the month
Rotational Data
In original terms, the incoming rotation group in November 2019 had a lower employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (62.5% in November 2019, compared to 63.2% in October 2019), and was lower than the sample as a whole (62.8%). The incoming rotation group had a lower full-time employment to population ratio than the group it replaced (42.5% in November 2019, compared to 43.8% in October 2019), and was lower than the sample as a whole (42.9%).
The unemployment rate of the incoming rotation group was higher than the group it replaced (5.2% in November 2019, compared to 4.8% in October 2019) and was higher than the sample as a whole (4.8%). The participation rate of the incoming rotation group was lower than the group it replaced (66.0% in November 2019, compared to 66.4% in October 2019) and higher than the sample as a whole (65.9%).
In looking ahead to the December 2019 estimates, in original terms, the outgoing rotation group in November 2019, that will be replaced by a new incoming rotation group in December 2019, had a lower employment to population ratio in November 2019 (62.3%) compared to the sample as a whole (62.8%). The outgoing rotation group in November 2019 had a lower full-time employment to population ratio (42.7%) than the sample as a whole (42.9%).
The outgoing rotation group had a higher unemployment rate in November 2019 (4.9%) compared to the sample as a whole (4.8%). The participation rate of the outgoing rotation group in November 2019 (65.5%) was lower than the sample as a whole (65.9%).
