Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.
The GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 1.9 percent. With the second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in personal consumption expenditures was larger and increases in state and local government spending and in nonresidential fixed investment were smaller than previously estimated.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. These increases were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $180.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,855.5 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.0 percent, or $225.2 billion.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third quarter. The PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent.
