We continue our series of home price modelling by state. Today we look at WA. You can read about our modelling and scenarios.
In our base case to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Perth fall by 1.4% to $528,000 and the average unit price in Perth rise by 0.7% to $438,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 14.6% to $312,000 and units will fall 5.3% to $279,000.
If economic activity picks up to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Perth rise by 10.1% to $589,000 and the average unit price in Perth rise by 9.5% to $477,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 2.3% to $357,000 and units will fall 5.6% to $279,500.
If economic activity slows to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Perth fall by 12.6% to $467,000 and the average unit price in Perth fall by 11.2% to $386,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 23.6% to $279,000 and units will fall 14.8% to $251,000.
If economic activity falls significantly to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Perth fall by 27.9% to $386,000 and the average unit price in Perth fall by 20.1% to $347,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 35.0% to $237,000 and units will fall 29.4% to $208,000.
This shows the WA market is quite fragile, despite considerable construction momentum, and interest from first time buyers. The modelling is designed to show relative sensitivity rather than making absolute predictions.
