As we continue our state by state analysis, today we look at South Australia.
In our base case to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Adelaide rise by 0.8% to $446,000 and the average unit price in Adelaide rise by 5.9% to $371,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 7.0% to $256,000 and units will rise 1.1% to $208,000.
If economic activity picks up to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Adelaide rise by 9.9% to $487,000 and the average unit price in Adelaide rise by 10.7% to $387,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will rise by 1.4% to $279,000 and units will rise 8.8% to $224,000.
If economic activity slows to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Adelaide fall by 10.3% to $397,000 and the average unit price in Adelaide fall by 7.1% to $325,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 18.1% to $226,000 and units will fall 11.9% to $182,000.
If economic activity falls significantly to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Adelaide fall by 26.7% to $324,000 and the average unit price in Adelaide fall by 22.2% to $272,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 33.1% to $184,000 and units will fall 25.8% to $153,000.
A reminder. This modelling is wrong, but is designed to illustrate the relative sensitivities in different scenarios!
