Continuing our modelling of future home prices, as described in our earlier post, today we look at QLD and run the analysis against our various scenarios.
In our base case to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Brisbane fall by 3.9% to $481,000 and the average unit price in Brisbane fall by 6.2% to $372,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 7.6% to $388,000 and units will rise 0.7% to $353,000.
If economic activity picks up to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Brisbane rise by 5.3% to $526,000 and the average unit price in Brisbane rise by 0.6% to $399,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 5.9% to $395,000 and units will rise 7.9% to $378,000.
If economic activity slows to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Brisbane fall by 14.6% to $427,000 and the average unit price in Brisbane fall by 20.1% to $317,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 18.9% to $340,000 and units will fall 12.4% to $307,000.
Finally, if economic activity falls significantly to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Brisbane fall by 21.7% to $391,000 and the average unit price in Brisbane fall by 29.5% to $280,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 29.2% to $297,000 and units will fall 24.6% to $264,000.
Essentially, regional areas in QLD are more exposed to economic down turns than Brisbane. Also, investment property purchases are a large proportion of transactions, and these are very sensitive to economic variables. Whilst this modelling will be wrong, it does give an indication of relative sensitives.
Tomorrow we will look at Western Australia.
