As we continue our state by state scenario analysis – read about our assumptions here – we look at Tasmania. Given the low transaction volumes, our results will be more noisy. That said, in our base case to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Hobart fall by 0.2% to $371,000 and the average unit price in Hobart fall by 4.1% to $285,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 0.3% to $264,000 and units will rise 0.8% to $221,000.
If economic activity picks up to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Hobart rise by 3.6% to $385,000 and the average unit price in Hobart fall by 1.9% to $291,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will rise by 6.6% to $283,000 and units will rise 5.7% to $231,000.
If economic activity slows to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Hobart fall by 11.3% to $329,000 and the average unit price in Hobart fall by 16.2% to $249,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 13.3% to $230,000 and units will fall 13.4% to $190,000.
If economic activity falls significantly to mid 2018, we expect to see the average house price in Hobart fall by 23.0% to $286,000 and the average unit price in Hobart fall by 24.6% to $224,000. In the regional areas, the average house price will fall by 30.3% to $185,000 and units will fall 23.7% to $167,000.
