Will Cost Of Living Be The Epicentre Of The Upcoming Election?

With Parliament back after the summer break, if Parliamentary Question Time anything to go by, the issue of costs of living pressures will be front and centre of the upcoming campaigns. Worth reflecting how effective Trump proved to be in the US asking the question, are you better off now, or previously!

Of course words and figures can differ, not least because the data may not all point in the same direction, and can be spun vigorously. For example, inflation may be coming down from its highs, but the accumulated additional costs of pretty everything still hangs heavy on household budgets. And whilst cost of living support, like power rebates or rental assistance can help fudge the headline figures and even perhaps bounce the RBA into a rate cut, data still shows we have a problem.

For example, the latest from my household surveys, looking at financial stress in cash flow terms shows that around 76% of those in the rental sector are under pressure, and just under half with mortgage payments are in the same boat. Others are doing significantly better, so averaging masks the extremes we are seeing.

The latest data from the ABS on Household spending shows that it rose 0.4 per cent in December, seasonally adjusted following a 0.8 per cent rise in November and a 1.0 per cent rise in October. Or in other words a slowing of spending.

Today the ABS published their Selected Costs of Living Cost Indices. Over the twelve months to the December 2024 quarter, the LCIs rose between 2.5% and 4.0% despite all the Government support measures. Of the household types, Employee households had the largest annual rise in living costs, up by 4.0 per cent, with mortgage interest charges up 14.7 per cent over the year.

Cost of Living could be fixed by a stroke of a pen, if the Government reserved east coast gas for Australians, rather than shipping it off shore, (or worse also having to re-import gas at international prices), and also start taxing those exports properly. If politicians are serious about costs of living why not start Question Time with a gas related debate? The answer is simple, neither side of politics wants to admit their policy errors in this space, preferring to gaslight costs of living pressures for political advantage. This will I think come back to bite them as households wake up to the truth. Much of the costs of living pain are self-inflicted due to plain stupid policy and self-interest.

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Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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