Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
As we continue our journey into the depths of home loan segmentation analysis, using LTV, DSR and LTI ratios, we begin to see some insightful patterns emerging. Today we delve into our deep segmentation models. We start by looking across the states and have sorted the results by DSR (Debt Servicing Ratio), as this is … Continue reading “Home Loan Insights From Deep Segmentation”
The latest release of the Digital Finance Analytics Household Survey to end March 2018, helps to explain why we think home prices are set to fall further. We discussed four housing and property scenarios in a recent video blog. But drawing on our 52,000 sample, from across Australia, today we will walk through the top-level … Continue reading “Latest Survey – Why Home Prices Will Fall Further”
It seems that eventually mortgage rates will rise in Australia, as global forces exert external pressure on the RBA, and as the RBA tries to normalise rates (at say 2% higher than today). Timing is, of course, not certain. But it is worth considering the potential impact. While our mortgage stress analysis takes a cash … Continue reading “Where Rate Rises Will Hit The Hardest”
Today we commence a short series on the results from our latest household surveys, as we examine the drivers of property demand by household segment. These results, from our 52,000 sample to September 2017 reveals that a significant rotation is underway, with first time buyers seeking to buy, supported by recent enhanced first home owner … Continue reading “The Great Property Rotation”
Digital Finance Analytics has released the August 2017 edition of our Household Finance Confidence index, which uses data from our 52,000 household surveys and Core Market Model to examine trends over time. Overall, households scored 98.6, compared with 99.3 last month, and this continues the drift below the neutral measure of 100. This is an … Continue reading “Household Finance Confidence Weakens Again”
Using data from our household surveys, we can look at investor loans by our core master household segments. These segments allow us to explore some of the important differences across groups of borrowers. We believe granular analysis is required to see what is really going on. Today we look at the distribution of these segments … Continue reading “A Perspective On Investor Loans”
When we published our sensitivity analysis on mortgaged households, which shows that more than 20% were on the edge financially speaking even at current low rates, a number of people asked why this was so, given the assumed affordability buffers and other underwriting safeguards. Well, apart from the obvious issues of static incomes, rising costs … Continue reading “This Is Why Mortgaged Household Are Debt Exposed”
Having looked at changes in investment loan supply, and the motivations of the rising number portfolio property investors, today we use updated data from our rolling household surveys to look at how property investors are positioned should mortgage rates rise. In fact, for many, rates have already been raised, thanks to lender repricing independent of … Continue reading “So Just How Sensitive Are Property Investors To Rising Interest Rates Now?”
We recently featured our analysis of Portfolio Property Investors, using data from our household surveys. We were subsequently asked whether we could cross correlate property investors and SMSF using our survey data. So today we discuss the relationship between property investors and SMSF. We were particularly interest in those who hold investment property OUTSIDE a … Continue reading “Do Investment Property Investors Also Use SMSF’s?”
We had significant interest in our recent posts on mortgage rate sensitivity in a rising market. One recurring request was for a cumulative view of rate sensitivity. So today we post these views on a segmented basis, using our master household segmentation. A quick recap, we updated our analysis of how sensitive households with an … Continue reading “A Cumulative View Of Mortgage Rate Sensitivity”