GDP 3.1% But…

Latest ABS data shows that growth in the quarter was a strong 1.1% making an annual seasonally adjusted rate of 3.1%. However, the Net National Disposable Income (NNDI) measure shows another fall.

GDP-and-NNI-March-2016In other words, whilst we are exporting more volume – and this quarter liquid natural gas was a stand-out, this greater activity did not translate to national or household income. In fact, this continues to fall, as previously shown by the stagnant growth in real incomes. The Australian economy may be running fast, but is not creating more wealth for its residents. Not a pretty picture.

Standing back, you have to question whether GDP is a very useful measure in the current environment. I am sure there will be many who will use it to “prove” the economic miracle continues, but the truth is much more complex. In addition, GDP is decoupled from inflation when the main driver is exports, so this gives the RBA a headache as well. Cutting rates further is unlikely to address this problem.

The ABS said that the March quarter 2016 National accounts show the Australian economy growing by 1.1% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms. The major driver of economic growth this quarter came from Exports which contributed 1.0 percentage point and Household final consumption expenditure contributing 0.4 percentage points.

The increase in Exports is reflected in the growth observed in Mining production (6.2%). Growth was also observed in the service industries of Financial and insurance services (1.8%), Accommodation and food services (1.5%), and Arts and recreation services (0.9%).

The largest detractor from growth was Private gross fixed capital formation which fell 2.2%, this was driven by falls in New engineering construction (-6.4%) and New buildings (-6.9%).

The Terms of trade fell by 1.9%, reflecting a fall in the price of exports relative to the price of imports.

 

Brokers Are The Winners In The Home Loan Wars

The latest Quarterly ADI Property Exposure stats from APRA paints an interesting picture of lending for residential property.  Total stock of loans across the 150 entities tracked was $1.4 trillion. In the last quarter, $81.7 billion of loans were approved, down by 1.2% a year ago but the average loan balance rose by 5% to $252,000 and the number of loans rose 4% compared with a year ago. Brokers received around $247m in upfront commissions in the quarter from ADIs and generated about 46% of loans by value. The current ASIC review of broker remuneration is therefore highly relevant.

APRA-QP-March-2016-Broker-ComLooking at the banks, we see the mix of investment loans sitting at 36%, down from its high of 39% in 2015. The recent switches between owner occupied and investment loans – around $40 billion, shows in the results.

APRA-QP-March-2016-STOCKThe proportion of interest only loans, which at a portfolio level, is sitting at 30% is still close to the record of 30.3%. Interest only loans are taken by investors wanting to maximise their tax benefits, and owner occupied borrowers trying to reduce monthly repayments. Regulators have recently been concerned about the status of these loans, and now new loans have to have a repayment plan, even if interest only. What though of interest only loans written before the tighter standards?

APRA-QP-March-2016-STOCK-IOIt is important to highlight that though the proportion of new loans being written on an interest only basis is around 35%, (from a peak of 43% in 2015), the major banks are still writing a larger share than portfolio, so expect to see continued growth in the interest only sector.

APRA-QP-March-2016-New-IOWe see the regulator’s hand when we look at the new loans, and those over 90% loan to value (LVR). Around 10% of loans are written above this threshold, whereas in 2008 banks lent more than 20% above this level. Also worth noting that credit unions and building societies had a spurt of higher LVR lending in 2013/15, as they completed for business.

APRA-QP-March-2016-NEW-LVR-HiWe see a rise in the proportion of loans originated by brokers. Around 50% of new loans come though this channel. We also see a rise in the proportion of building societies using brokers, and credit unions are also on the train along with foreign banks. Brokers have become a significant influence in the market and lenders have to work with them (at the expense of loans via branch channels). This changes the competitive landscape, and the economics of loan origination.

APRA-QP-March-2016-NEW-BrokerFinally, we see a fall in non-standard loans, though around 4% of new loans are still being written outside standard terms.

APRA-QP-March-2016-NEW-NonST APRA-QP-March-2016---New-Servicability

Fast finance with new online NAB QuickBiz Loan

National Australia Bank (NAB) today announced it will introduce a new $50,000 unsecured business loan for Australian small businesses.

The NAB QuickBiz Loan, which has been developed by in-house innovation hub NAB Labs and will launch in early June, allows eligible customers to apply for up to $50,000 in funding via a new online application process.
The new online platform uses NAB’s Application Programming Interface (API) technology to assist with the credit check on the customer’s application and provide an automated credit decision within minutes. Customers will have finance for their business account within three days of NAB receiving their signed loan document.

NAB Group Executive Business Banking Angela Mentis said: “The Australian economy relies on entrepreneurs who innovate, establish new industries and create jobs. As the biggest business bank in the country, we stand ready to back Australian businesses with great ideas, providing simple, quick funding solutions to support small businesses looking to grow”.

New NAB research shows around 1 in 3 Australians would like to run their own business with young Australians clearly the most aspirational (nearly 1 in 2) and this offer will help businesses in those early years with the important cash flow they may need.

The research also showed that banking support (49%) is still commonly cited as a critical element to building businesses.

“In the early days of business ownership, small businesses often only require small amounts of funding – and many owners don’t have a property or other significant assets to secure a loan against. We’re responding to these customer needs, placing more emphasis on the strength of the business rather than traditional physical bricks and mortar security,” Ms Mentis said.

The initiative means NAB is the only big four bank to offer such an online service without a third party referral involved.

Executive General Manager NAB Labs, Jonathan Davey, said the NAB QuickBiz Loan was another example of the bank’s agile approach to meet customer needs.

“We are listening to our customers and focusing on the development of capabilities to drive better customer experiences,” Mr Davey said.

“It’s another example of NAB Labs agile development and rapid prototyping approach, where we build to decide, rather than decide to build, delivering solutions that make a real difference for our customers.”

Mortgage brokers: ASIC goes fishing

From The Conversation.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) inquiry into the way mortgage brokers are paid may uncover some isolated shady dealings but the system of remuneration for brokers is already regulated well enough by intense competition.

Assistant Treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer announced the inquiry last year in line with recommendations from the Financial System Inquiry and ASIC recently commenced the inquiry with a scoping paper. The focus is likely to be on whether the advice of brokers is in the best interests of the customers.

As always, there are questions about whether the remuneration incentives for brokers distort their advice. And, again as always, there are questions about whether the fact that big banks own some brokers leads these brokers to favour the products of their owners, and not necessarily to offer the products most appropriate to the customer.

In many ways, the inquiry is just part of the ongoing reviews of different parts of the finance sector. The same arguments are likely to be rehashed.

In announcing the review, ASIC Commissioner Peter Kell was clear that:

“We are focused on consumer protection issues in the context of personal credit products, ranging from small amount credit contracts through to home loans.”

There has been some discussion in the press that loans organised by brokers default at a higher rate than loans written by banks. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) might regard this as a concern for financial stability, but ASIC will be concerned with whether people are getting loans they really should not be. The focus will clearly be on consumer outcomes.

It’s worth looking at the mortgage broking sector mainly because it has been growing rapidly and is now quite big. About half of all mortgages are provided through brokers, up from 40% a decade ago. The upfront commissions for brokers are about 0.5%, which yields annual revenue of close to A$2 billion.

So it is a big and rapidly growing financial sector and ASIC has duly been charged to have a look around for problems. Australia already has laws addressing any concerns. The National Consumer Protection Act has, since 2011, put the onus on providers to act in the best interests of customers. ASIC is really just checking up that the law is being complied with.

While there may be some bad behaviour, it is hard to see what the concern is. People have a choice.

They can go to their own financial institution and buy a mortgage direct from the manufacturer. Alternatively, they can look around among financial institutions to find the mortgage that works for them.

Now they can also go to one of the dozens of mortgage brokers to see if one of them can find a better deal. From the customers’ point of view, there are hundreds of retail outlets (banks and mortgage brokers) offering mortgages.

The fact that mortgage brokers are taking market share away from the banks suggests that customers really appreciate the mortgage broker effectively cutting the buyer’s cost of searching.

There shouldn’t be a problem with the banks paying the broker for delivering the customer, as there is a clear cost saving to the bank. It does not need to have as many branches or as many staff.

Seen from the bank’s point of view, it can originate the mortgage through its own branch and incur some overhead and running costs, or initiate the loan through the broker channel and pay the broker for its overhead and running costs.

Ultimately, the client is buying a product, in this case a mortgage. The price the customer pays is transparent, as are the terms and conditions.

If brokers were not providing a good service, customers could easily swing back to searching for their own mortgage among the banks, or simply walk down the street to another broker. Smart customers will thus keep the providers honest and make sure competition works as it should.

There is a not a lot of academic research into the issues associated with remunerating mortgage brokers. What there is tends to be from the US, which has not had a good record in managing mortgages over recent years. The most relevant paper suggests that loan quality can be improved though requiring registration, higher education standards and continuing education and/or by requiring brokers to post bonds.

The ASIC inquiry will uncover more information about the sector. It may also find some people have behaved badly (as in any area of human endeavour), but it’s hard to see a significant structural problem in a very competitive market.

Author: Rodney Maddock, Vice Chancellor’s Fellow at Victoria University and Adjunct Professor of Economics, Monash University