Are Pay Rises Chasing Inflation Higher?

In the UK, Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) is the highest we have seen since comparable records began in 2001. The Office for National statistics said In May to July 2023, annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%, the same as the previous three-month period and the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.

Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.5% in May to July 2023; this total growth rate is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. But we can see workers are chasing real wages growth, as inflation eases, just a little with annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for total pay up for the year by 1.2% and for regular pay a year on year rise of 0.6%.

In Australia, The Fair Work Commission released their latest data on Monday which revealed that average pay rises in new collective agreements in Australia have soared to a high of 4.7 per cent, closing in on inflation and putting pressure on wage forecasts. The increase is the highest average recorded since the commission’s data series began in mid-2022, surpassing previous highs of 4.4 per cent and is based on 174 deals lodged from August 12 to August 25, extended to 63,553 employees.

But with inflation at 6% on the quarter to June 2023, and the monthly series at 4.9%, on average workers are still going backwards in terms of real take home pay after inflation.

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Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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