We got the latest monthly data on inflation on Wednesday, and it came in a bit below market expectations, standing at 3.4% unchanged in February and has been 3.4 per cent for three consecutive months according to the ABS. Monthly data does not cover all the categories, so results are always a bit uncertain.
But just to be clear, prices are still rising faster than the RBA’s target, and while the data is volatile, there is clearly more to do to get to band. Also, I believe real inflation as experienced by many households are significantly higher than the official numbers. When excluding volatile items, the annual rise eased to 3.9% from January’s 4.1%, still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Annual inflation excluding volatile items has continued to slow over the last 14 months from a high of 7.2 per cent in December 2022.
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You have been hit by large rises in grocery, energy, transport, child and aged care prices, only adding to other cost of living pressures, according to a bombshell report. But the report argues the ongoing cost of living crisis is largely due to corporations unduly increasing prices.
As the Conversation reported, while extreme weather and supply delays have contributed to the increases, an inquiry into what’s causing the hikes has confirmed what commentators and consumers suspected – many sectors are resorting to dodgy price practices and confusing pricing.
Headed by the former Australian Consumer and Competition Commission (ACCC) boss, Allan Fels, on behalf of the ACTU, the inquiry found inflation, questionable pricing practices, a lack of price transparency and regulations, a lack of market competition, supply chain problems and unrestricted price setting by retailers are to blame for fuelling the increases.
The inquiry, which released its final report on Wednesday, is one of four examining price rises. The other three are being undertaken by a Senate committee, the Queensland government and the ACCC, which has been given extra powers by the government.
The official inflation rate in Australia peaked at 7.8% in December 2022 and has been gradually dropping since then.
While the inquiry found higher prices contributed to inflation, it reported that businesses claimed it was inflation that caused price rises – making it a chicken-or-egg kind of problem.
However, many businesses made enormous profits in 2022-23, which the inquiry said contributed to rising prices and inflation. In most cases, post-pandemic profit margins were much higher than before the pandemic.
The current pricing practices for all business sectors must improve for greater transparency and to protect Australian consumers from unfair pricing.
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Australian Households Pay More Because The System Is Rigged: Report
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Prices rose by 3.9% in the year to November, down from 4.6% in October according to data from the ONS today, driven by positive base effects mainly across oil products. Remember that falling inflation also does not mean most goods and services are cheaper, but rather prices are rising less quickly.
That rise compares to a more-than four-decade high rate above 11% reached last year. The last time inflation in the UK was lower than 3.9% was in September 2021 when it was 3.1%. Most economists had expected UK inflation to fall to 4.3% last month. As a result, UK inflation has fallen to its lowest level for more than two years, driven largely by a drop in fuel prices.
The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to November 2023, down from 4.7% in October. On a monthly basis, CPIH fell by 0.1% in November 2023, compared with a rise of 0.4% in November 2022. Within that energy prices fell, but rent and council tax were higher.
Slowing price rises for food, including staples such as pasta, milk and butter, as well as for household goods were also behind the fall.
But while inflation, which is the rate prices rise at, is now well down from its peak in 2022, it is still almost double the Bank of England’s 2% target.
UK inflation remains higher than in other countries including the US and Germany but the gap is narrowing. The fall to 3.9% in November puts the UK on level footing with France, but ahead of the EU’s average rate of 3.1% and the US’s 2.1%.
The softer inflation data prompted Goldman Sachs to bring forward its expectation for the first BOE rate cut to May from June previously.
Ahead, of course the impact of potentially higher Oil prices thanks to the closure of the Suez Canal for some ships, which have driven oil prices higher, and the removal of Government support for higher power prices might turn the inflation gauge higher in the months ahead. So again, markets are ahead of themselves, it will be some time before inflation is approaching the 2% target.
Prices rose by 3.9% in the year to November, down from 4.6% in October according to data from the ONS today, driven by positive base effects mainly across oil products. Remember that falling inflation also does not mean most goods and services are cheaper, but rather prices are rising less quickly.
That rise compares to a more-than four-decade high rate above 11% reached last year. The last time inflation in the UK was lower than 3.9% was in September 2021 when it was 3.1%. Most economists had expected UK inflation to fall to 4.3% last month. As a result, UK inflation has fallen to its lowest level for more than two years, driven largely by a drop in fuel prices. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to November 2023, down from 4.7% in October. On a monthly basis, CPIH fell by 0.1% in November 2023, compared with a rise of 0.4% in November 2022. Within that energy prices fell, but rent and council tax were higher.
Slowing price rises for food, including staples such as pasta, milk and butter, as well as for household goods were also behind the fall.
But while inflation, which is the rate prices rise at, is now well down from its peak in 2022, it is still almost double the Bank of England’s 2% target.
UK inflation remains higher than in other countries including the US and Germany but the gap is narrowing. The fall to 3.9% in November puts the UK on level footing with France, but ahead of the EU’s average rate of 3.1% and the US’s 2.1%.
The softer inflation data prompted Goldman Sachs to bring forward its expectation for the first BOE rate cut to May from June previously.
Ahead, of course the impact of potentially higher Oil prices thanks to the closure of the Suez Canal for some ships, which have driven oil prices higher, and the removal of Government support for higher power prices might turn the inflation gauge higher in the months ahead. So again, markets are ahead of themselves, it will be some time before inflation is approaching the 2% target.
In the UK, Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) is the highest we have seen since comparable records began in 2001. The Office for National statistics said In May to July 2023, annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%, the same as the previous three-month period and the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.
Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.5% in May to July 2023; this total growth rate is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. But we can see workers are chasing real wages growth, as inflation eases, just a little with annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for total pay up for the year by 1.2% and for regular pay a year on year rise of 0.6%.
In Australia, The Fair Work Commission released their latest data on Monday which revealed that average pay rises in new collective agreements in Australia have soared to a high of 4.7 per cent, closing in on inflation and putting pressure on wage forecasts. The increase is the highest average recorded since the commission’s data series began in mid-2022, surpassing previous highs of 4.4 per cent and is based on 174 deals lodged from August 12 to August 25, extended to 63,553 employees.
But with inflation at 6% on the quarter to June 2023, and the monthly series at 4.9%, on average workers are still going backwards in terms of real take home pay after inflation.
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In the UK, Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) is the highest we have seen since comparable records began in 2001. The Office for National statistics said In May to July 2023, annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.8%, the same as the previous three-month period and the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.
Annual growth in employees’ average total pay (including bonuses) was 8.5% in May to July 2023; this total growth rate is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. But we can see workers are chasing real wages growth, as inflation eases, just a little with annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for total pay up for the year by 1.2% and for regular pay a year on year rise of 0.6%.
In Australia, The Fair Work Commission released their latest data on Monday which revealed that average pay rises in new collective agreements in Australia have soared to a high of 4.7 per cent, closing in on inflation and putting pressure on wage forecasts. The increase is the highest average recorded since the commission’s data series began in mid-2022, surpassing previous highs of 4.4 per cent and is based on 174 deals lodged from August 12 to August 25, extended to 63,553 employees.
But with inflation at 6% on the quarter to June 2023, and the monthly series at 4.9%, on average workers are still going backwards in terms of real take home pay after inflation.
http://www.martinnorth.com/
Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest inflation figures from the UK showed that whilst headline inflation dropped a bit thanks to the base effects relating to energy a year ago dropping out, core inflation and services inflation were higher than forecast (again). Markets reacted pushing the cash rate expectations higher. Once again it appears the Bank of England are behind the curve.
New Zealand meantime lifted their cash rate to 5.5%, in a market leading attempt to get inflation under control!
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Stronger than expected data from the ABS today increases the likelihood of a cash rate hike from the RBA next month. The moving parts were all over the shop, warped by the addition and removal of various Government support programmes and holiday travel and spend.
No discretionary remains very high, and more costs will flow from higher wages. This may not be over as soon as many expect.
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The UK inflation data come in hot today, signalling broad-based inflation, including across services. Gas, electricity costs and food costs were among the main drivers, offset small falls in petrol and used cars.
This suggests the Bank of England will need to hike rates some more – though that may depend on the Chancellors Budget tomorrow.
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