According to ANZ, Job advertisements rose 1.0% m/m in October after virtually no change in September. Annual growth in job ads rose to 5.2% from 3.8% in the previous month.
In trend terms, job ads rose 0.4% m/m in October, a touch lower than the 0.5% m/m rise in September. While trend annual growth in job advertisements has slowed – 4.8% y/y compared to 11.4% y/y a year ago – it remains consistent with a gradual improvement in the labour market.
ANZ said “The rise in ANZ job ads is encouraging and points to ongoing improvement in labour market conditions. It is consistent with the moderate pace of economic growth, as well as above average business and consumer sentiment
Overall, our assessment is that the labour market will continue to improve at a gradual pace and the unemployment rate will continue to edge lower, supported by low interest rates and still elevated business conditions.
That said, excess capacity in the labour market is likely to continue to weigh on wage growth over the medium term. While the unemployment rate has fallen from a recent peak of 6.3%, underutilisation remains high by historical standards, suggesting that there remains a considerable amount of spare capacity in the labour market. While we think that wage growth has stabilised at a low level, the high rate of underutilisation suggests that wages are unlikely to accelerate significantly in the near term”.
