Australian Population Growth Is Slowing

The ABS demographic data released today to March 2015 shows that Australia’s population growth rate has slowed to a rate last seen nearly 10 years ago to  1.4% during the year ended 31 March 2015.  Slowing growth, and the aging of the population are both drag anchors to future growth.

The total population was 23,714,300 people. This reflects an increase of 316,000 people since 31 March 2014, and 93,900 people since 30 December 2014. All states and territories recorded positive population growth.

Natural increase and net overseas migration (NOM) contributed 45% and 55% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 31 March 2015.

Victoria recorded the highest growth rate of all states and territories at 1.7% or 97,500 people. Victoria and Queensland were the only states recording a net gain from interstate migration

The Northern Territory a recorded the lowest growth rate at 0.2%, its lowest growth rate in 11 years. This is 80 per cent lower than that of March 2014. Net interstate migration losses were the greatest contributor to this slower growth, with the territory recording its largest ever interstate migration loss in the year to March 2015.

Western Australia also recorded slower growth. In the past two years, net overseas migration to the state has dropped by 71 per cent, while net interstate migration has dropped to the point where the state has seen a net interstate loss. This has not been seen in over 10 years in this state.

The preliminary estimate of natural increase recorded for the year ended 31 March 2015 (142,900 people) was 9.7%, or 15,400 people lower than the natural increase recorded for the year ended 31 March 2014 (158,300 people). The preliminary estimate of NOM recorded for the year ended 31 March 2015 (173,100 people) was 16.0%, or 33,000 people lower than the net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 31 March 2014 (206,100 people).

Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

Leave a Reply