Martin North – Page 1031 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

August Lending Data Released

The ABS released their data series for August covering the entire lending spectrum (the housing details were released previously).

The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 0.1% in trend terms, and the seasonally adjusted series fell 2.0%.

The trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose 1.0%. Fixed lending commitments rose 1.0% and revolving credit commitments rose 0.9%. The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose 5.2%. Revolving credit commitments rose 5.9% and fixed lending commitments rose 4.7% .

The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 0.2%. Revolving credit commitments rose 0.4% and fixed lending commitments rose 0.1%. The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell 16.3% in August 2014, after a rise of 3.4% in July 2014. Fixed lending commitments fell 18.6%, after a rise of 21.0% in the previous month. Revolving credit commitments fell 9.6%, following a fall of 26.8% in the previous month.

The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments rose 1.1% in August 2014 and the seasonally adjusted series rose 8.7%, after a fall of 7.3% in July 2014.

This chart shows the seasonally adjusted flows for all finance categories.

Looking at property, we again see the investment lending sector strong, at close to 50% of all property lending, excluding refinancing.

Finally, we look at the share of investment lending as a proportion of all commercial lending. We see it sits above 20%, with a surge recently. The dynamics here are interesting, does if represent a fall in other business lending categories, or a replacement by rising investment property lending?

The other gap in the data is the number of new properties purchased as investment properties (this is different from investing in building new property). This is an important data point because one of the arguments proffered by some is that negative gearing supports new builds. Our own survey data suggests this is not the case, and most investment lending which is negative geared is going to established property.

The Rise And Rise Of The Bank Of Mum and Dad

As part of the DFA household surveys, we segment the housing market, to identify those who want to buy and first time buyers, as well as those down trading, the affluent, suburban and seniors. We described the full segmentation recently. Today we look at those who are trying to buy. This group has been under pressure as prices rise, incomes stall, and property supply is limited.

One striking fact is the number of households in this group who are now banking with the “Bank of Mum and Dad”. The proportion of households who are borrowing from parents, or who are planning to, has been increasing steadily. The chart below shows the proportion who are relying on Mum and Dad Bank, and we also plot relative house price growth over the same period. This is an Australian average, there are state variations.

We then looked at the average amount being supplied by parents. In 2010 is was around $22,000. Today it is over $60,000. We also tracked the percentage increase year on year for transactions assisted by parent loans. Since May 2013, there has been significant growth.

We then looked at which household segments the funds were coming from. Down traders are the largest group, (there are over one million down traders in Australia at the moment) and growing as a percentage of all households, whereas suburban households (who themselves have larger loans now) figure less.

We also discovered that about half of these loans were made interest free, the other half, charged at a rate of interest at or below the market.

So, it is clear the Bank of Mum and Dad is a significant factor in the housing market, and the second order impact of down traders, is significant. It also means that if property prices were to slip, some down traders may find their generous family loans get eaten up in negative equity.

The low first time buyer rates would be even more adverse, without this extra assistance!

Macroprudential, Revolutions and the RBA

Over fifty years ago, in 1962 Thomas S. Kuhn’s book The Structure of Scientific Revolution was published. It is an important work because if helps to explain how things work, and its findings I think are widely applicable beyond the scientific community.

Amazon says of the book “Kuhn challenged long-standing linear notions of scientific progress, arguing that transformative ideas don’t arise from the day-to-day, gradual process of experimentation and data accumulation but that the revolutions in science, those breakthrough moments that disrupt accepted thinking and offer unanticipated ideas, occur outside of “normal science,” as he called it. Though Kuhn was writing when physics ruled the sciences, his ideas on how scientific revolutions bring order to the anomalies that amass over time in research experiments are still instructive in our biotech age.”

His central thesis is that the evolution of ideas, where one set builds on the previous set does not adequately explain what happens in practice. Actually, new ideas often emerge away from the main stream, are often rejected by incumbents, thanks to positional power and authority, but some ideas, quite suddenly become the new normal, and become mainstream in their own right.

He argues that people in positions of power and influence tend to operate with a specific frame of reference, which makes it difficult for them to accept information which does not chime with their own views. Sometimes, though, revolutions do happen and as a result, we see quite sudden revolutionary changes in the accept norms.

I believe the RBA’s stance on macroprudential is an interesting example. How come that up to a couple of months ago, they were quite sanguine on the housing market, and dismissed macroprudential as a fad. Yet now, judging by recent comments, they are expressing concerns about the housing market, and we expect to see some form of macroprudential intervention before the end of the year. The data highlighting issues in the housing sector have been amassing for some time now, yet the RBA appears to have suddenly twigged and become a late convert.

Kuhn’s thesis seems to neatly explain the change.

ASIC Says Life Insurance Industry Needs Higher Standards

ASIC today released their review of activity in the Life Insurance Industry, and finds that consumers interests are not always given priority. The $44bn industry touches superannuation, annuities, and other elements, as shown in a diagram reproduced from the report. We have previously highlighted the issues around annuities. They found that high upfront commissions are more strongly correlated with non-compliant advice, and we think that it is another case, like FOFA of product sales being dressed up as advice.

An ASIC review of life insurance advice has found that the industry needs to improve the quality of advice and ensure that the interests of consumers are given priority. ASIC’s review of more than 200 advice files from large, medium and small Australian financial services (AFS) licensees found that 63% were compliant. However, more than one third (37%) of the advice consumers received failed to comply with the laws relating to appropriate advice and prioritising the needs of the client. ‘This is an unacceptable level of failure, and the life insurance industry is now on notice to lift standards and professionalism. Both insurers and advice firms need to work on delivering a consistently better service for consumers’, ASIC Deputy Chairman Peter Kell said.

‘Life insurance is a key product through which consumers manage risk for themselves and their families. It is therefore important that both the products and the advice meet the consumer’s requirements. ‘There is both a need and a demand for quality life insurance advice, and our report provides examples of advisers delivering a service that meets the needs of their clients. However, this result must be achieved on a more consistent basis’, Mr Kell said. ASIC’s report sets out the various commission models that are used to remunerate advisers in the life insurance sector. The report found that high upfront commissions are more strongly correlated with non-compliant advice, including in situations where the recommendation is to switch products.

‘The industry as a whole needs to consider how remuneration and compliance practices can better support good quality outcomes for consumers’, Mr Kell said. Affordability of insurance is an important issue for consumers, and ASIC’s report includes cases where clients were recommended insurance cover that was likely to be very difficult to afford given their financial circumstances. ASIC’s report confirmed that the high rate at which life insurance policies are lapsing warrants consideration by the life insurance industry to ensure that industry practices are sustainable.

ASIC has made a number of recommendations for insurers, AFS licensees, advisers and their professional associations, including a focus on how to ensure client interests are met and balancing the issue of affordability versus cover. Mr Kell said, ‘ASIC is committed to working with the industry to address the problems we’ve identified and to improve outcomes for consumers.’ Following the surveillance work and the conduct that has been uncovered ASIC has commenced follow-up investigations in certain cases which are ongoing. ‘Where inappropriate advice was provided we are considering enforcement action or other regulatory action’, Mr Kell said.

However, DFA believes that this is part of a wider issue with consumer advice in Financial Services. The problem is the various elements within a consumer’s financial portfolio will fall under different regulatory environments, which are just not consistent. If its mortgage related, then the advice is centred on whether the loan is suitable or not (no best client interest here) and commissions are rife ; if its financial planning related, the FOFA, offers some safeguards, and also significant gaps around general advice, as we discussed recently. Now life insurance is another problematic area. It is time for some joined up thinking. A consumer will require financial service advice across multiple products including loans and investments, but all part of a single financial portfolio. There should be consist consumer-centric processes, irrespective of the products being touted. We applaud ASIC for again championing the interests of the consumer, but there is so much more to be done.

The solution is simple. Separate advice from product sales (a.k.a general advice). Exclude any incentive payments for those providing advice. Clearly disclose any product fees (including trading and transaction fees). Job done.

Macroprudential Bites in the UK – Bank of England

The Bank of England (BoE) recently published their Q3 Credit Conditions Survey. This is the first edition since the recent Mortgage Market reforms were introduced, and the macroprudential controls were tabled. Looking specifically at secured lending to households they report that demand for credit has eased, and the proportion of higher loan to value loans has reduced. In other words macroprudential is biting!

After eight consecutive quarters of expansion, lenders reported that the availability of secured credit to households fell significantly in the three months to early-September.

The contraction in overall availability was reported to be driven by a changing appetite for risk and lenders’ expectations about house prices. Many lenders noted that operational issues associated with the implementation of the Mortgage Market Review had pushed down on credit availability over the summer. And some lenders commented that they had tightened availability a little in response to the recommendations made by the Financial Policy Committee to mitigate risks stemming from the housing market.

Credit availability was reported to have fallen in Q3 both for borrowers with loan to value (LTV) ratios below 75% and for borrowers with LTV ratios above 75%. Lenders also reported that they had become less willing to lend at LTV ratios above 90% for the first time since the question was introduced in 2013, and some noted that they had introduced policies which restrict lending at high loan to income (LTI) ratios.

Consistent with a tightening in credit availability, credit scoring criteria for granting household loan applications were reported to have tightened in Q3 and the proportion of household loan applications being approved fell.

Seasonally Adjusted Employment Data Not Reliable – ABS

Today the ABS confirmed what we already knew, there was something weird about the employment data. When the last set came out, showing major and surprising movements, we highlighted the figures were probably not reliable. See the chart below.

Now the ABS has said

The ABS has concluded that the seasonal pattern previously evident for the July, August and September labour force estimates is not apparent in 2014. This assessment was made while preparing labour force estimates for September 2014 and relates to all seasonally adjusted labour force estimates other than the aggregate monthly hours worked series.

As there is little evidence of seasonality in the July, August and September months for 2014, the ABS has decided that for these months the seasonal factors will be set to one (reflecting no seasonality). This means the seasonally adjusted estimates (other than for the aggregate monthly hours worked series) for these months will be the same as the original series and this will result in revisions to the previously published July and August seasonally adjusted estimates.

“It is critical that the ABS produces the best set of estimates that it can,” said acting Australian Statistician Jonathan Palmer “so that discussion is on what the estimates mean, and not the estimates themselves.

“To assist in this, the ABS will commission a review with independent external input to develop an appropriate method for seasonally adjusting October 2014 and following months’ estimates.

“The report on the results of this review will be presented in due course.”

The ABS has not made this decision lightly and believes this approach will result in a more meaningful set of seasonally adjusted estimates.

The ABS will continue to produce trend estimates and, as always, encourages users to use the trend estimates to help understand underlying movements in the labour force series.

This admission will increase the level of uncertainty about the accuracy of the data, at a time when unemployment and underemployment are set to remain high (as the IMF stated today). This is exacerbated by the recent cuts to the ABS budgets, making the sample smaller, and less reliable. We are flying somewhat blind at a time when good reliable data is essential if we are to chart a path through current uncertainties. Or maybe the inconvenient truth about rising unemployment will be muted as a result, and this was not entirely without intent.