Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

More First Time Buyers Are Jumping Directly Into Investment Property

The traditional wisdom is that First Time Buyers are sitting out of the property markets, because prices are high, loans harder to get, and confidence is falling. Overall 11.6% of owner occupied loans are from FTB. We can look at the trend, showing the number of first time buyer loans each month, and the relative share compared with all owner occupied loans

FTBTrendNov2014The latest ABS data highlights the fact that in some states, especially NSW, FTB activity is very low (7%), whereas in WA its over 20% of owner occupied loans.

FTBSTATEShareTrendNov2014If we look at the relative share of FTB transactions we see that there are more FTB loans being written in WA and VIC than NSW.

FTBStateTrendsPCNov2014But this is not the full story. As we already highlighted our household surveys have detected a significant rise in the number of FTB who are going directly into the investment market. We can estimate the proportion of FTB who are taking this route, using DFA data.

FTBNov2014InvNow, if we make adjustments to the ABS data to take account of the trend we see that FTB are more active than might be thought. In fact the rate of activity has remained at about 9,500 loans each month since mid 2013. Its just that the ABS data does not capture the full statistics.

FTBNov2014Adjusted

Bank Profits Under Pressure In 2015?

Fitch Ratings 2015 Outlook: Australian Banks report has a stable sector outlook for Australian banks in 2015, reflecting what should be a relatively steady operating environment despite a likely modest decline in real GDP growth and an elevated unemployment rate. These factors should in turn result in modestly weaker asset quality and an increase in impairment charges, which are likely to be offset by strengthened balance sheets and strong profitability.

A significant slowdown in China is the biggest risk to the outlook, given it is Australia’s largest trading partner, but such a slowdown is not Fitch’s base case. A relaxation of underwriting standards to improve growth also looms as a risk, although this appears less likely following the announcement in December 2014 of regulatory reviews of potentially higher-risk lending.

Housing credit growth is likely to slow in 2015, in part because of the regulatory review but also due to high household indebtedness and slower house price growth. Fitch expects household indebtedness to stabilise in 2015, with an easing in wage rises and as unemployment remains high.

Nevertheless, competition for loans will likely remain intense, placing some pressure on net interest margins. This and an expected rise in impairment charges will likely mean lower profit growth in 2015. Offsetting this, capital positions are likely to be strengthened, in part to address potential new requirements stemming from the 2014 Financial Services Inquiry (FSI) recommendations, while the shift towards more stable funding sources will probably continue.

Although banks may act on some FSI recommendations during 2015, many of the measures requiring government action, including legislation, are unlikely to be implemented before the end of the year. Fitch expects implementation timeframes to be set such that meeting the new requirements should not be overly onerous for banks

 

Australian Retail Ecommerce Sales to Top $10 Billion in 2015

According to eMarketer’s latest estimates of retail sales, Retail ecommerce sales in Australia will rise 14.4% this year to pass $10 billion. In 2014, ecommerce sales in the country increased 17.3% to account for over 4% of total retail sales, and that share will expand to 4.5% in 2015. Low double-digit gains will continue through 2017, and by the end of the forecast period, retail ecommerce sales will total $14.52 billion and represent 5.6% of retail sales in the country.

Australia falls in the middle of the pack in both absolute terms and percentage of total retail ecommerce sales when compared with the other Asia-Pacific countries, behind China, Japan and South Korea and ahead of India and Indonesia.

Interestingly, digital buyer penetration among internet users in Australia is the second highest in Asia-Pacific. eMarketer estimates that 79.4% of internet users in the country will purchase via any digital channel this year, behind only Japan (82.0% penetration). Due to its size, though, Australia has the smallest digital buyer population in Asia-Pacific, at 12.1 million.

Australia’s ecommerce landscape is crowded with international competitors—especially eBay-owned properties—according to October 2014 data from Experian Hitwise Australia. eBay Australia catalogued the highest number of visits, 23.1 million, during the week examined, accounting for 12.9% of retail site visits during that timeframe. The local edition of eBay-owned classifieds site Gumtree was second with 13.3 million visits and a 7.4% share, followed by eBay with 13.2 million for a 7.4% share, and Amazon with 11.6 million for a 6.5% share. [Note: The Australian version of Amazon’s site, Amazon.com.au, sells only ebooks.]

The remaining top 10 ecommerce sites, with visitor shares of around 1% or less, included user-supported deals-posting site OzBargain, consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi Australia and hardware chain Bunnings Warehouse, Apple’s site, Alibaba Group-owned discounts site AliExpress and department store chain Target Australia. The list reflects a landscape dominated by consumer-to-consumer resale sites, alongside options for business-to-consumer transactions.

APRA To Regulate Private Health Insurers

The Treasury has today released an Exposure Draft that will establish APRA as the prudential regulator of the private health insurance industry. This is part of the Smaller Government – additional reductions in the number of Australian Government bodies initiative announced as part of the 2014-15 Budget. The Private Health Insurance Administration Council (PHIAC) will cease as a separate body and its prudential supervisory functions will be transferred to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). The transfer of PHIAC’s prudential supervisory functions will be given effect by the Exposure Draft Private Health Insurance (Prudential Supervision) Bill 2015 (Exposure Draft Bill) which will represent a new Act for the regulation of private health insurers, administered by APRA. The main changes are:

  • the registration of private health insurers and the prevention of entities not registered from carrying on a health related business
  • requirement for private health insurers to have health benefits funds and obligations relating to the operation of such funds
  • restructure, merger, acquisition and termination of health benefits funds
  • appointment of an external manager of a health benefit fund and the powers and duties of external managers and terminating managers
  • duties and liabilities of directors
  • establishment of prudential standards and directions by APRA and the requirements for health benefits funds to comply with such standards and directions
  • obligations of private health insurers such as the appointment of actuaries and reporting and notification requirements
  • APRA’s ability to supervise compliance by private health insurers with their obligations and APRA’s enforcement powers
  • enforceable undertakings
  • APRA’s ability to seek remedies for a contravention for an enforceable obligation
  • review of APRA’s decisions by the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT)
  • ability of APRA to give approvals and make determinations and rules

Treasury is seeking feedback by 30th January.

Investors Still Leading The Way

The ABS published their housing finance data today for November 2014. Comparing October to November, the trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 0.6%. Investment housing commitments rose 0.9% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 0.5%.

However, in seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.0%.

In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 11.6% in November 2014 from 11.4% in October 2014.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance was flat in November 2014. In trend terms, the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings was flat and the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.2%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 0.5%.

Construction Falls In December

Data released today shows that the construction sector fell again in December.

The national construction industry continued to exhibit substantial weakness in December 2012. The overall rate of contraction eased for a third consecutive month in response to slower declines in activity and new orders. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/ Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) increased by 1.8 points in December to 38.8. The index has now remained below the critical 50 points level (that separates expansion from contraction) for 31 consecutive months.

By sector, commercial construction activity contracted at its slowest pace in just over two years, while the rate of decline in engineering construction again eased during the month. In contrast, house building activity declined at its steepest rate in three months amid weaker new orders. Apartment building activity also moved further into negative territory.

Businesses reporting declines in activity mainly attributed this to tight credit conditions, strong competition for existing work and uncertainty about the economic outlook. A number of reports from house builders indicated that the weakness in demand was marked by a reduction in home buyer enquiries and a lack of commitment from potential purchasers.

Apartment building turned down sharply to the lowest level in the past 16 months.

The Australian Industry Group Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) in conjunction with the Housing Industry Association, is a national composite index based on the diffusion indexes for activity, orders/new business, deliveries and employment with varying weights.

Q4 Capital City Rentals Static

CoreLogic RP Data just released their rental data to December 2014. Over the 2014 calendar year, advertised rental rates on a national basis increased by 2.6 per cent for both houses and units. At a capital city level, the rental performance across the different housing stocks was more varied. House rents rose by 1.2 per cent over the year, while unit rents outperformed the detached housing market, up 2.5 per cent over the 12 months to December 2014.

RPDataRentalsDec2014Quarterly movements. Capital city advertised rents remained unchanged over the final quarter of 2014, with house rents steady at $430 per week and unit rents recorded at $410 per week. Across Australia, house rents increased by 1.3 per cent to $400 per week, while unit rents were unchanged over the three months to December at $390 per week.

For houses, the performance across each individual capital city market was varied. Hobart houses saw rents rise by the most, up 5.4 per cent over the three month period, while Brisbane (2.5 per cent), Adelaide (1.4 per cent), Canberra (1.1 per cent) and Sydney (1.0 per cent) saw rents rise by a more moderate amount. Perth (-2.2 per cent) and Darwin (-0.8 per cent) were the weakest performing rental markets for houses over the three month period. Melbourne was the only capital city market to record no change, with weekly rents for houses stable at $385 per week. The performance across the unit market at a capital city level was somewhat weaker. Hobart (1.8 per cent) and Brisbane (1.3 per cent) were the only capital cities in which rents rose over the three months to December, while all other cities saw rents fall over the last quarter of 2014 with the exception of Adelaide and Canberra where no change was recorded.

Annual movements. Nationally, advertised rents are 2.6 per cent higher than they were in December 2013 for both houses and units, while across the combined capital cities house rents have risen by 1.2 per cent, compared to a stronger level of growth for unit rents which rose by 2.5 per cent. Over the year to December 2014, for houses, the strongest performing capital city market in terms of rental increases was Hobart, where the median advertised weekly rental rate was 3.8 per cent higher. Sydney, Adelaide (both 2.9 per cent), Brisbane (2.5 per cent) and Melbourne (1.3 per cent) all had rents higher in December 2014 when compared to December 2013. Perth (-6.3 per cent) and Canberra (-5.0 per cent) were by far the weakest performing capital city markets for growth in advertised house rents.

Similar to houses, Canberra (-7.3 per cent) and Perth (-4.4 per cent) were the weakest performers amongst the capital city unit rental markets and were the only two cities to see rents fall over 2014. Unit rents for both Adelaide and Darwin remained unchanged over the year, while Hobart (3.7 per cent) and Sydney (3.1 per cent) were the strongest performers.

Retail Trade Up In November

The latest ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in November, seasonally adjusted, following a rise of 0.4 per cent in October 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms food retailing rose 0.6 per cent or $56.3 million in turnover. Other industries which experienced rises were cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.8 per cent) and household goods retailing (0.6 per cent). Department stores remained relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent). This was partially offset by falls in other retailing (-2.1 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.7 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms the states which displayed rises were Victoria (0.4 per cent), South Australia (0.4 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.3 per cent), Tasmania (1.1 per cent), the Northern Territory (1.6 per cent) and Queensland (0.1 per cent). This was partially offset by falls in New South Wales (-0.2 per cent) and Western Australia (-0.1 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in November 2014. Through the year, the trend estimate rose 4.5 per cent in November 2014 compared to November 2013.

Total online retail trade, in original terms, rose 5.2 percent in November following a rise of 9.8 per cent in October 2014 and a rise of 8.7 per cent in September 2014.

Will RBA Change Rates in 2015?

Until quite recently, there was something of a consensus that in 2015 the RBA was likely to lift rates, despite  their monthly mantra about a period of interest rate stability.  Some economists have argued that falling consumer confidence, slowing wage growth, and international uncertainty were all factors which would lead to lower rates, whilst on the other hand, the falling price of fuel at the pumps, and continued investment property demand might lead to higher rates.

So, interesting then that today the Commonwealth Bank of Australia  (CBA) released a note in which they have pushed out any rate rise expectations into the first quarter of 2016. In the interim period, they say, the cash rate will most likely stay at current levels – at 2.5% – the rate it has been for well over a year now. They suggest that a cut to the current low rate is unlikely, because the falling dollar and oil prices will stop the RBA dropping rates further. Previously, the CBA had been suggesting a rise in 2015 was likely.

The CBA said, a rate cut wouldn’t necessarily help produce the confidence and the stability the RBA is seeking:

“It appears that households and business now equate rate cuts with ‘bad’ economic news.”

The bank thinks a cash rate of 3.5 per cent by the end of 2016 is quite likely.

Dwelling Approvals Rise in November

ABS Building Approvals show that the number of dwellings approved rose 0.2 per cent in November 2014, in trend terms, and has risen for six months.

Dwelling approvals increased in November in Tasmania (3.8 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (3.2 per cent), the Northern Territory (2.9 per cent), Victoria (2.8 per cent) and Western Australia (0.9 per cent) but decreased in Queensland (2.4 per cent), New South Wales (1.4 per cent) and South Australia (1.1 per cent) in trend terms.

In trend terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 0.3 per cent in November. Private sector house approvals fell in South Australia (0.7 per cent), Western Australia (0.7 per cent) and New South Wales (0.5 per cent) but rose in Victoria (0.2 per cent) and Queensland (0.2 per cent).

The value of total building approved fell 0.7 per cent in November, in trend terms, and has fallen for 12 months. The value of residential building fell 0.5 per cent while non-residential building fell 1.0 per cent in trend terms.