Martin North – Page 18 – Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The Housing Market Sheep And Goats (Which Are You?)

Data from my surveys, as discussed this past week, along with other market data shows we have a very divided housing market, with on one side of the ledger many households under significant pressure and begin forced to sell up, while watching their property values slide, while on the other side property investors are still piling in competing with owner occupied buyers, especially at the lower end of the market and bidding prices higher. Actually of course there are many micro markets across the country, and so any headline “data” on rises or falls mask important differences. Housing isn’t just the great Australian barbecue-stopper. It’s our greatest pain point, too. All this only days after Australia’s GDP figures grew at the lowest rate in three decades, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, and as traders push out rate cut expectations well into next year.

So today I will be looking at the latest signals from the data relating to mortgage prisoners, forced sales, credit growth and investor activity, to provide context for the misleading headlines we see on the property portals.

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Markets Discombobulated By Rate Cuts And Mixed Rear View Mirror Data, But Still Bets On AI Growth!

In this week’s market review, as usual we will start in the US, cross to Europe, then Asia, and end in Australia, and in passing we cover commodities and crypto.

I have been highlighting how the data driven approach by Central Banks is a problem, because as new data lands, markets try to respond, making swings in sentiment a core feature of every day.

On Wednesday we got a rate cut from the Bank of Canada, who became the first major central bank among the Group of Seven countries to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75 per cent, with governor Tiff Macklem saying if inflation continues to ease, and our confidence that inflation is headed sustainably to the 2 per cent target continues to increase, it is reasonable to expect further cuts to our policy interest rate. Inflation in Canada has slowed this year to hit a three-year low of 2.7 per cent in April. While inflation has stayed below 3 per cent for four straight months, it is still above the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

The BoC joins Sweden’s Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank in bringing down rates and more central banks are weighing rate cuts.

And on Thursday the European Central Bank made a widely expected decision to cut its deposit rate from a record 4% to 3.75% even though inflation remains above its 2 per cent target and recently ticked up. So, the ECB was prepared to cut despite inflation clearly remaining sticky, despite persistent wage pressures and despite some signs the European economy might be improving.

Not only is it one of the very few times that the ECB makes a turn on monetary policy before the Fed, it is also the first time the ECB starts cutting rates after a tightening cycle without facing a recession or crisis. But what’s less clear is what Lagarde does next. Having delivered the historic first cut, she was very reluctant to give many clues on when the next one would be. Watch the data, she said.

And in fact, global stocks pulled back from an all-time high on Friday after surprisingly strong U.S. monthly jobs data dimmed hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon follow euro zone and Canadian interest rate cuts, causing Treasury yields to shoot higher.

So the big question is, with the Bank of Canada cutting on Wednesday night, and Lagarde going on Thursday night, does this give the RBA any more room to deliver the rate cut many Australian households and investors crave? The short answer is no!

The RBA is expected to be among the last central banks to cut rates because the Australian inflation pace is above most major economies. At 3.6 per cent, CPI remains well above the RBA’s 2.5 per cent target and a reason why money markets are only fully priced for an easing in one year’s time.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 2. Mortgage Stress

This is the second part in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on mortgage stress.

See the first part, where we describe our approach here: https://youtu.be/3oidJ_XKgAE

If you want details of a particular post code, drop it in the comments below, and I will endeavour to add it to a later show.

The full 2,000 post code series is available by subscription from our Patreon channel below.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 1. Overview

This is the first in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on financial stress, which is rising further. This episode provides an overview, subsequent episodes will dive into the details of mortgage, rental, investor and financial stress.

If you want details of a particular post code, drop it in the comments below, and I will endeavour to add it to a later show.

The full 2,000 post code series is available by subscription from our Patreon channel. https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/